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National Situation Update: Sunday, July 6, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Northeast
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast from the Poconos into the central Appalachians of Virginia and West Virginia; one to two inches of rain may create some minor flooding. Isolated thunderstorms, some severe, may occur in Upstate New York and New England; hail up to one inch in diameter and strong winds may damage trees or down power lines.
South
Numerous thunderstorms are predicted from south Florida northward into the Carolinas. Widely-scattered storms are possible along the central Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle to southern Louisiana. More concentrated, heavy rainfall may continue for drought-plagued South Texas; over one inch of rain is possible, mainly south of San Antonio.
Midwest
Thunderstorms are forecast from Upper Michigan to Iowa and possibly Nebraska. Some of these storms could turn severe with large hail and damaging winds. Excessive rainfall in excess of three inches is possible in parts of Iowa, northern Illinois, southern Minnesota, and possibly southwest Wisconsin.
West
Thunderstorms are probable from the Four Corners northward through much of the Rockies, and westward into parts of the Great Basin. Unfortunately, most storms in Idaho, western Montana, eastern Nevada, and Utah will produce little rainfall, but may cause frequent lightning and high wind gusts, increasing the risk of new fire starts. A wet weather system will significantly reduce the chance of dry storms next week in California. (National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Midwest Severe Weather and Flooding

Ongoing river flooding continues along parts of the Mississippi River in Illinois and Missouri, the Rock River in Wisconsin, and the Iowa and Des Moines Rivers in Iowa. While these rivers have points at or above Moderate Flood Level, all forecast locations are currently receeding. The Mississippi River lock at Kaskaskia will remain closed until about July 7. Levees and dams are primarily stable and holding; the US Army Corp of Engineers and local responders continue to maintain them. (USACE, Region V, VII)

FEMA Region V RRCC:
Activated at Level III, 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. CDT (M-F). A FEMA State Liaison is active in the Illinois EOC. FEMA Region V IMAT planning section is active in support of the FEMA-1771-DR-IL JFO. Joint Public Assistance (PA) and Individual Assistance (IA) Preliminary Damage Assesments (PDAs) are ongoing in Illinois. Joint PA PDA Teams in Indiana are prepared to conduct assessments in seven counties beginning Monday, July 7, 2008.

FEMA Region VII RRCC:
Not activated
Missouri:
State EOC is activated at Level 1, 7:00 a.m.-6:00 p.m. CDT. Monitoring of West Alton levee is anticipated to end July 6, 2008. State EMA will be conducting damage assessment in various counties due to flash flooding that occurred last week. (FEMA Region V, VII, NWS)

California Wildfires Update

CA State Operations Center (SOC) is activated 7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. PDT, with limited night staffing. FEMA Region IX has Liaison Officers at the SOC, the North Operations Center in Redding, CA and the South Operations Center in Riverside, CA. CA State EOC, Inland Region Emergency Operation Center, Coastal Region Operations Center, and the Southern Region Operations Center are activated. One fatality and 84 injuries are attributed to the fires. One shelter was active with a population 68 as of midnight, July 5, 2008. 15 counties are affected; CA Governor declared States of Emergency for 11 counties.
Current Situation: State, local and federal firefighters continue to battle 1,783 wildfires throughout California. To reflect this progress, fire reporting has been expanded to include the number of contained, actively burning fires, and peak number of fires since these fires began on June 20, 2008. Currently 1,451 are 81% contained, and a total of 520,504 acres have burned. 26 complexes are actively threatening life and property; 20 located in Northern California and six located in Southern California.
Resources committed: 20,260 personnel statewide; 531 Crews; 1,641 Engines; 331 Dozers; 429 Water Tenders; 118 Rotary Aircraft; and eight Modular Airborne Fighting Systems (MAFFS).
Structures: 10,917 residences, 421 commercial and 3,015 outbuildings are threatened; 34 residences, one commercial and 36 outbuildings were destroyed. Four residences were damaged. (All Fires Combined).
Evacuations: Evacuation orders are in effect for areas of Santa Barbara, Monterey, and Shasta counties. Precautionary evacuation orders are in place for areas in Butte, Kern, Mendocino, Monterey, and Plumas counties.
Highway closures: Numerous state highways, county and local roads remain closed throughout California due to wildfire activities.
National Guard: 859 Guardsmen are supporting the firefight in California. National Guard resources tasked to support firefighting activity include 27 air resources (15 Type 1 helicopters, 3 Type 3 helicopters, 1 RC-26 and 8 MAFFS).
Federal Support: Eight MAFFS and 6 C130 aircraft continue deployment in support of the State of California. A National Incident Organization (NIMO) Team is assigned as a planning and operational group. The U.S. Marine Corps is providing 6 helicopters and the U.S. Navy is providing 2 helicopters for Wildfire support. NASA is providing the Ikhana Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) for firefighting support. The first mission over Northern California is tentatively scheduled for July 8, 2008.(CA Dept of Forestry and Fire Protection; Region IX, NIFC)

Salmonella Saintpaul Outbreak

Reports of a potential public health emergency of international concern is related to a Salmonella Saintpaul outbreak within the United States. Since April, 943 persons infected with Salmonella Saintpaul with the same genetic fingerprint have been identified in 40 states, the District of Columbia, and Canada. An initial epidemiologic investigation comparing foods eaten by ill and well persons identified consumption of raw tomatoes as strongly linked to the illness, however clusters of illnesses identified in Texas and other states among persons who ate at restaurants has led to an expanded investigation, to include food items that are commonly consumed with tomatoes such as jalapeño peppers and cilantro.

CDC is collaborating with public health officials in many states, the Indian Health Service, and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to investigate the ongoing multi-state outbreak of human Salmonella serotype Saintpaul infections. The rate of illness is highest among persons 20 to 29 years old; and lowest in children 10 to 19 years old and persons 80 or more years old. At least 130 persons have been hospitalized. One death in a man in Texas in his eighties has been associated with this outbreak. Illnesses began between April 10 and June 26, 2008, including 225 who became ill on June 1 or later. No new states report ill persons. The previous rarity of this strain and the distribution of illnesses in all U.S. regions suggest that the implicated food is distributed throughout much of the country. www.cdc.gov/salmonella/saintpaul/ (Health and Human Services IHR PHEIC Report July 5)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical Storm Bertha: At 5:00 a.m. EDT July 6 the center of Tropical Storm (TS) Bertha was located about 1,310 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands, approximately 1,500 miles west of Puerto Rico. TS Bertha is moving toward the west near 22 mph. A general west-northwestern motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed and a strengthening is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. It is too early to determine if Bertha will pose a threat to any land areas.

FEMA NRCC is maintaining awareness and contact with FEMA Region II RRCC, NWS and NHC concerning TS Bertha. FEMA Region II RRCC is activated at Level III (Watch Status) from 9:00 a.m. to 5 p.m. EDT, through the weekend due to TS Bertha. FEMA Region II Disaster Operations deployed an advance team of five (5) staff members to St. Thomas, US Virgin Islands (USVI) Region II bunker to check equipment and prepare for the 2008 Hurricane Season and potential hit by Tropical Storm Bertha. Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
At 5:00 a.m. EDT,  July 6 the broad center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located about 175 miles west-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico and about 145 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The depression is generally moving toward the northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm today or Monday, July 7. A slow motion toward the northwest is forecast during the next couple of days. The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches along the coast of southwestern Mexico with isolated maximum amounts of up to 10 inches. Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No tropical activity. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Saturday, July 05, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 5

• Initial attack activity:  Heavy (321 new fires)
• New large fires: 1
• Uncontained large fires: 79
• Large fires contained: 2

Predictive Services Discussion: Gusty winds are expected today over the southern Sierras and Great Basin along with localized night and morning winds over Santa Barbara and Ventura counties in southern California. Warmer and drier weather is on tap for most of California while widely scattered wet and dry thunderstorms are forecast for the Southwest, Utah and Rockies. The eastern portions of Washington and Oregon will see mild and generally dry weather. Showers will cover much of the Southeast. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)