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National Situation Update: Saturday, July 5, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
A weak cold front will produce scattered showers across western Washington and northwest Oregon, with thunderstorms across Idaho, Montana and Wyoming this weekend.  Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible over the Four-Corners States until tomorrow. There are Red Flag Warnings up for northeast Utah and northwest Colorado this afternoon due to dry lightning.  High temperatures will range from 60s along the Pacific Northwest coast to120 in the Desert Southwest.
Midwest:
A weak front draped across the Region will produce a few thunderstorms over the Plains and severe thunderstorms over the Dakotas.  The eastern portion of this front will result in a few showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Ohio Valley, eastern Kansas and southern Missouri.   Highs Saturday will range from the 80s in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Mississippi Valley to around 100 in Kansas.
South:
Much of the region will be wet as daytime heating and a few weather disturbances aloft trigger showers and thunderstorms.  Tropical moisture streaming into southern Texas will produce up to an inch of rain but given the recent dry conditions the threat of flooding is low.  Temperatures across much of the Region will be in the 80s but northern Texas and Oklahoma could reach 100.
Northeast:
A weak front over the Middle Atlantic will remain relatively stationary through the weekend.  Impulses of low pressure will ride eastward along the front and will trigger showers and thunderstorms from the mid Atlantic to southern New England.  Highs will range from the 70s to low 80s. (National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Midwest Severe Weather and Flooding

Ongoing river flooding continues along parts of the Middle Mississippi River Valley and associated tributaries. All river gauges indicate the Mississippi, Rock, and Illinois Rivers are slowly receding.

Two Mississippi River locks, numbers 24 at Clarksville and 25 near Winfield, will reopen by July 4.  The Kaskaskia Lock will remain closed until about July 7. 
Levees and dams are mostly stable and holding; the USACE and local responders continue to maintaining them.  42 levees were breached or overtopped; 21 levees remain threatened. (USACE, USDA, Regions V, VII)

FEMA Region V RRCC:
Level III, 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. CDT (M-F)
A FEMA State Liaison is active in the Illinois EOC.
Joint PA and IA PDAs are ongoing in Illinois.
Illinois:
EOC is partially activated, 8:30 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT.
FEMA Region V IMAT has a reduced staff deployed to JFO in support of FEMA-1771-DR-IL.
Joint IA and PA PDAs are ongoing.

FEMA Region VII RRCC:
Not activated
Missouri:
State EOC activated at Level 1, 7:00 a.m.-6:00 p.m. CDT.
Monitoring West Alton levee anticipated to end 6 JUL 08
State EMA will be conducting damage assessment in various counties due to flash flooding last week. (FEMA Region V, VII, NWS)

California Wildfires

CA State Operations Center (SOC) is activated 7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. PDT, with limited night staffing.
FEMA Region IX has Liaison Officers at the SOC, the North Operations Center in Redding, CA and the South Operations Center in Riverside, CA.
1 fatality; 170 injuries attributed to the fires
1 shelter; population 93
11 counties have been declared State of Emergencies
Current Situation: State, local and federal firefighters continue to battle hundreds of wildfires throughout California.  Military assistance continues in the form of aircraft and personnel support.
Fires: 335; Acres: 529,971; Personnel Committed: 19,995; Resources Committed: Engines: 1,566; Crews: 521; Dozers: 323; Water Tenders: 429; Rotary Aircraft: 113; MAFFS:  8
Structures: 10,917 residences, 421 commercial and 3,015 outbuildings are threatened;34 residences, 1 commercial and 32 outbuildings have been destroyed; 4 residences damaged.  (All Combined Fires).
Evacuations: Evacuation orders are in effect for areas of Santa Barbara, Monterey, and Shasta counties at this time.  Precautionary evacuation orders are in place for areas in Butte, Kern, Mendocino, Monterey, and Plumas counties.
Highway closures: Numerousstate highways and local roads remain closed throughout California due to wildfire activities.
National Guard
776 Guardsmen are supporting the fires; in CA.
National Guard resources tasked to support firefighting activity include 27 air resources (15 Type 1 helicopters, 3 Type 3 helicopters, 1 RC-26 and 8 MAFFS).
Federal Support:
8 Modular Airborne Fighting Systems (MAFFS) and 8 C130 aircraft continue deployment in support of the State of California.
A National Incident Organization (NIMO) Team is assigned as a planning and operational group.
Marine Corps and US Navy are providing support with 8 helicopters: USMC 4 CH-46Es and 2CH-53s, USN 2 MH-60S.
NASA is providing the Ikhana Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) for firefighting support.  Tentative first mission over Northern California will be July 8, 2008.  (CA Dept of Forestry and Fire Protection; Region IX, NIFC)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FMAG-2780-CA was requested and issued July 4, 2008 for the Gap Fire near Goleta, CA (population 50,000).  The Fire has burned more than 5,400 acres and there have been three residences destroyed with 2,647 residences, 228 commercial properties, power system and pump filtration system threatened.  4,500 mandatory and 625 voluntary evacuations have taken place.  The fire is 10% contained.  There is no estimated date for full containment.

FMAG-2781-CA was requested and issued July 4, 2008 for the Basin Complex Fire near Big Sur, CA (population 16,000).  The Fire has burned more than 65,393 acres and there have been 20 residences damaged with 1,777 residences, 20 commercial properties, 2 fire stations, and state multi-use facility are threatened.  1,500 mandatory and 2,700 voluntary evacuations have taken place.  The fire is 5% contained.  There is no estimated date for full containment.    (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical Storm Bertha:

• At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm (TS) Bertha was located about 750 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.
• TS Bertha is moving toward the WNW near 21 mph and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.
• Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today but gradual strengthening is possible by Sunday
• Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the center, and estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).  Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Depression Boris has dissipated and no further warnings will be issued on this system.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco Mexico are limited and disorganized.  Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable for slow development of this system during the next couple of days as it moves very slowly west-northwestward.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No tropical activity. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

On Friday, July 4, 2008 at 10:12 p.m. EDT on earthquake measuring 7.5 magnitude struck 240 miles west northwest of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy, Russia. There was no tsunami generated.  (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Friday, July 04, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 5
Initial attack activity:  Heavy (350 new fires)
New large fires: 7
Uncontained large fires: 80
Large fires contained: 6 (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-3287-EM-CA was amended effective July 4, 2008 adding 4 counties for Public Assistance (category B), limited to direct Federal assistance, under the Public Assistance Program. (FEMA HQ)