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National Situation Update: Friday, July 4, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
Surface troughs and a strong upper level disturbance will produce precipitation over Washington and Oregon.  Montana and Idaho will have thunderstorms.  Scattered thunderstorms are possible over the Four-Corner area.  The potential for dry thunderstorms gusty winds and low relative humidity will result is critical fire weather in eastern Nevada and western Utah.  High temperatures will range from 60s along the Pacific Northwest coast and Canadian border to 120 in the Desert Southwest where temperatures will remain hot through the weekend.
Midwest:
A stalled front extending from Oklahoma to the Mid Atlantic will produce a broad swath of precipitation.  Some areas will receive up to an inch and a half of rain.  Disturbances moving along the front will trigger locally heavy rain across the Ohio Valley for several days.  Highs will range from the 70s in Michigan and the Ohio Valley to the 90s the high Plains
South:
With the stalled front to the north and warm moist flow off the Gulf of Mexico much of the region will be wet today.  Some portions of Florida may see up to an inch of precipitation.  High temperatures across the region will range from the 80s to the 90s.
Northeast:
The stalled front will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across southern New England, southeast New York and the Mid-Atlantic. Some areas will receive up to an inch and a half of rain.
The chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Mid-Atlantic and expand northward to the Canadian border through the holiday weekend.  Highs will range from the 70s in New England to the low 90s in Maryland and Virginia. (National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Midwest Severe Weather and Flooding

Ongoing river flooding continues along parts of the Middle Mississippi River Valley and associated tributaries.
All river gauges indicate the Mississippi, Rock, and Illinois Rivers are slowly receding.
Two Mississippi River locks, numbers 24 at Clarksville and 25 near Winfield, will reopen by July 4.  The Kaskaskia Lock will remain closed until about July 7.
Levees and dams are mostly stable and holding; the USACE and local responders continue to maintaining them.
42 levees were breached or overtopped; 21 levees remain threatened. (USACE, USDA, Regions V, VII)

FEMA Region V RRCC:
Level III, 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. CDT (M-F)
A FEMA State Liaison is active in the Illinois EOC.
Joint PA and IA PDAs are ongoing in Illinois.
Illinois:
EOC is partially activated, 8:30 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT.
FEMA Region V IMAT has a reduced staff deployed to JFO in support of FEMA-1771-DR-IL.
Joint PA PDAs are ongoing.
IA PDAs are ongoing.

FEMA Region VII RRCC:
Level III, 6:00 a.m. - 6:00 p.m. CDT (M-F)
Missouri:
State EOC activated at Level 1, 7:00 a.m.-6:00 p.m. CDT.
Monitoring West Alton levee anticipated to end 6 JUL 08
State EMA will be conducting damage assessment in various counties due to flash flooding last week. (FEMA Region V, VII, NWS)

California Wildfires

CA State Operations Center (SOC) is activated.
FEMA Region IX has Liaison Officers at the SOC, the North Operations Center in Redding, CA and the South Operations Center in Riverside, CA.
1 fatality; 155 injuries attributed to the fires
1 shelter; population 0
11 counties have been declared State of Emergencies
Current Situation: State, local and federal firefighters continue to battle hundreds of wildfires throughout California.  Although fires continue to burn, hundreds of fires have been contained.  Military assistance continues in the form of aircraft support.
Fires: 1,781; Acres: 505,872; Personnel Committed: 2,254; Resources Committed: Engines: 1,556; Crews: 651; Dozers: 326; Water Tenders: 423; Rotary Aircraft: 113; MAFFS:  8
Structures: 10,724 residences, 421 commercial and 4,816 outbuildings are threatened; 34 residences, 1 commercial and 32 outbuildings have been destroyed; 4 residences damaged.  (All Combined Fires).
Evacuations: Evacuation orders are in effect for areas of Santa Barbara, Monterey, and Shasta counties at this time.  Precautionary evacuation orders are in place for areas in Butte, Kern, Mendocino, Monterey, Plumas and Shasta counties.
Highway closures: Numerous state highways and local roads remain closed throughout California due to wildfire activities.
Federal Support:
8 Modular Airborne Fighting Systems (MAFFS) and 8 C130 aircraft continue deployment in support of the State of California.
A National Incident Organization (NIMO) Team is assigned as a planning and operational group.
784 Guardsmen are supporting the fires; in CA.
National Guard resources tasked to support firefighting activity include 20 air resources.
NIFC pending SECDEF approval for DOD ground battalion to support wildfire efforts.
NASA is providing the Ikhana Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) for firefighting support.  Tentative first mission over Northern California will be July 8, 2008.  (CA Dept of Forestry and Fire Protection; Region IX, NIFC)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical Storm Bertha:
At 4:00 am EDT, July 4, 2008, the center of Tropical Storm (TS) Bertha was located about 315 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Bertha is moving west-northwest near 14 mph. A general west-northwestward motion and an increase in forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph, with higher gusts. Slow strengthening of Bertha is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to 70 miles. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Depression Boris is located about 1,390 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and is moving to the west-northwest at 7 mph.  Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph. Further weakening is expected and Boris will likely decay into a low pressure area later today.

Tropical Depression Douglas has dissipated into a low pressure area and no further warnings will be issued on this system.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec remain limited and disorganized. Environmental conditions now appear to be less conducive for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours as the system moves slowly toward the west-northwest or northwest.

Western Pacific:
No tropical activity. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Thursday, July 03, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 5
Initial attack activity:  Heavy (355 new fires)
New large fires: 6
Uncontained large fires: 90
Large fires contained: 5 (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1772-DR-MN was amended effective July3, 2008 with incident period for this disaster is closed effective June 12, 2008.
FEMA-1771-DR-IL was amended effective July3, 2008 adding 4 counties for Individual assistance and 15 counties for Public Assistance.  
FEMA-1770-DR-NE was amended effective July3, 2008 adding 2 counties for Individual assistance and 7 counties for Public Assistance. (FEMA HQ)