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National Situation Update: Thursday, July 3, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Tropical Weather Activity

Atlantic/Caribbean:
A Tropical depression has formed over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean
At 5:00 am EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 12.6 north, longitude 22.7 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.  some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and the depression could become a tropical storm later today.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1100 am EDT.

Elsewhere , tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm Boris is centered about 1,270 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
and is moving to the west-northwest at 6 mph.  Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph. Steady weakening is forecast and Boris is expected to become a tropical depression tomorrow. 

Tropical Storm Douglas is located about 320 miles west of Manzanillo Mexico and is moving to the north-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph. Gradual weakening is forecast and TS Douglas is expected to become a tropical depression later today.

An area of disturbed weather is about 350 miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development and this system could become a tropical depression within the next couple of days as it moves slowly west-northwestward.

Based on current warnings these systems pose no threat to land.

Western Pacific:
No tropical activity.(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Significant National Weather

West:
In the Pacific Northwest, an upper level disturbance will produce scattered  showers over western Washington and western Oregon. A few thunderstorms are forecast for the Cascades.  Isolated afternoon and evening, thunderstorms are forecast from North Dakota southward to New Mexico and westward to the Rockies.   High temperatures are predicted to range from the 60s along the coast to as high as 122 in Death Valley. An excessive heat warning remains posted for southeast California and southwest Arizona including Phoenix.

Midwest:
A frontal system will produce showers and thunderstorms from the panhandle of Oklahoma to the Ohio River Valley.  Some areas in the Mississippi River Valley will see up to an inch of additional rain. Localized flooding is possible and flash flood watches are in effect for central Missouri this afternoon.  High temperatures will range from the upper 60s on the Peninsula of Michigan to the upper 80s in Kentucky.

South:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the Gulf Coast, especially Florida and south Texas.  Temperatures, for the most part, will be seasonable with highs forecast to be in the 90s.

Northeast:
The cold front pushing toward the southeast will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms from New England southward to West Virginia.  Southeastern New England, Long Island, southern New Jersey and locations south of the Mason-Dixon Line should remain dry.  High temperatures will range from the 70s behind the front, in Upstate New York and far northern New England, south of the front temperatures should reach to the 90s.(National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Midwest Severe Weather and Flooding

Ongoing river flooding continues along parts of the Middle Mississippi River Valley and associated tributaries.
All river gauges indicate the Mississippi, Rock, and Illinois Rivers are slowly receding.
Two Mississippi River locks, numbers 24 at Clarksville and 25 near Winfield, will reopen by July 4.  The Kaskaskia Lock will remain closed until about July 7.
Levees and dams are mostly stable and holding; the USACE and local responders are maintaining them.
42 levees were breached or overtopped; 21 levees remain threatened. (USACE, USDA, Regions V, VII)

FEMA Region V RRCC:
Level III, 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. CDT (M-F)
A FEMA State Liaison is active in the Illinois EOC.
Joint PA and IA PDAs are ongoing in Illinois and Wisconsin.

Illinois:
EOC is partially activated, 8:30 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT.
FEMA Region V IMAT has a reduced staff deployed to JFO in support of FEMA-1771-DR-IL.
Joint PA PDAs are ongoing.
IA PDAs are ongoing.

Wisconsin:
State EOC is not activated.
1 shelter; population: 17
FEMA Region II ERT-A on site in Madison at JFO
5 FEMA Mobile Disaster Recovery Centers (MDRCs) supporting 10 FEMA Disaster Recovery Centers (DRCs)

FEMA Region VII RRCC:
Level III, 6:00 a.m. - 6:00 p.m. CDT (M-F)

Iowa:
State EOC is operating at normal duty hours.
17 fatalities; 106 injuries (Reported by JFO)
5 shelters; population: 140
IA and PA PDAs are ongoing
Region IV IMAT deployed to JFO in support of FEMA-1763-DR-IA.

Missouri:
State EOC activated at Level 1, 7:00 a.m.-6:00 p.m. CDT.
State EMA will be conducting damage assessment in various counties due to flash flooding last week. (FEMA Region V, VII, NWS)

National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, July 2, 2008:

National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 5
Initial attack activity:  Moderate (282 new fires)
New large fires: 6
Uncontained large fires: 85
Large fires contained: 5(National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center)

California Wildfires

CA State Operations Center (SOC) is activated.
FEMA Region IX has Liaison Officers at SOC and North Operations Center in Redding, CA and South Operations Center in Riverside, CA.
0 fatalities; 85 injuries attributed to the fires
2 shelter; population 0
10 counties have been declared State of Emergencies
Current Situation: State, local and federal firefighters continue to battle hundreds of wildfires throughout California.  Although fires continue to burn, hundreds of fires have been contained.  Military assistance continues in the form of aircraft support.
Fires: 1,781; Acres: 494.311; Personnel Committed: 19,942; Resources Committed: Engines: 1,470; Crews: 566; Dozers: 342; Water Tenders: 428; Rotary Aircraft: 106
Structures: 8,447 residences, 185 commercial and 3,034 outbuildings are threatened; 31 residences, 1 commercial and 32 outbuildings have been destroyed (All Combined Fires).
Evacuations: Evacuation orders are in effect for areas of Santa Barbara, Monterey, and Shasta counties at this time.  Precautionary evacuation orders are in place for areas in Butte, Kern, Mendocino, Monterey, and Shasta counties.
Highway closures: Numerous state highways and local roads remain closed throughout California due to wildfire activities.
Federal Support:
Six Modular Airborne Fighting Systems (MAFFS) and eight C130 aircraft continue deployment in support of the State of California.
A National Incident Organization (NIMO) Team is assigned as a planning and operational group.
546 Guardsmen from CA, OR, and NV are supporting the fires; in CA; Guardsmen from Washington and Mississippi were added on Saturday, June 28.
National Guard resources tasked to support firefighting activity include 25 air resources.
NIFC pending SECDEF approval for DOD ground battalion to support wildfire efforts.
NASA is providing the Ikhana Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) for firefighting support.  Tentative first mission over Northern California will be today.(CA Dept of Forestry and Fire Protection; Region IX,

Earthquake Activity

On Wednesday, July 2, 2008 at 10:02 am EDT an earthquake measuring 6.2 struck about 330 miles west southwest of Nuku'Alofa, Tonga.  There were no reports of damage or injuries and there was no tsunami generated. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-17684-DR-WI was amended effective July 2, 2008 adding Calumet, Fond du Lac, Green Lake, Jefferson, Juneau, Kenosha, Marquette, Ozaukee, Racine, Rock, Shebaygan, Washington, and Waukesha counties for Public Assistance (already designated for Individual Assistance).

Georgia:  On July 2, 2008, the Governor of Georgia issued an appeal for a Major Disaster Declaration for severe storms and tornadoes that occurred on May 20, 2008.  The Governor is specifically appealing the request for Individual Assistance for Cherokee County and Hazard Mitigation statewide.  (FEMA HQ)