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National Situation Update: Saturday, December 1, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Mudslide and Flash Flooding Concerns Ease for California

Rain in the southern California canyons is ending early Saturday morning and flash flood warnings are also scheduled to expire this morning, easing the threat of mudslides for Orange County, as well as flooding for Ventura and San Diego counties.

The Orange County Operational Area Emergency Operations Center lifted the mandatory evacuation orders for Modjeska Canyon and Williams Canyon at 8:30 p.m. PST and downgraded the order to voluntary status.  Silverado Canyon remains under voluntary evacuation status and Trabuco Canyon remains under heightened awareness.

Red Cross emergency shelter at El Modena High School Orange County remains open for evacuated residents.

All watches and Warnings for Los Angeles and Ventura Counties have been cancelled.   The Flash Flood Warning issued by the National Weather Service is scheduled to expire at 3:00 a.m. PST Saturday, December 01. (JFO, Orange County EOC, Media sources)

Significant National Weather

West
A trough of low pressure with significant amounts of moisture from the subtropical regions will bring needed rain to the Southwest on Saturday.  Cities like Los Angeles and San Diego picked up from one half to three quarters of an inch of rain.  Rain also spread through Arizona and southern sections of Utah and Nevada. More rain is likely overnight and flood watches are in effect for southeast California, much of Arizona, and parts of southern Utah and New Mexico.  Snowfall may reach three to five feet Saturday across the southern Colorado Rockies including the San Juan and the Sangre de Cristo.  Another storm system will affect the Northwest on Sunday as snow turns to rain in the lower elevations.

Midwest
Much of the Midwest will experience snow that changes to sleet and freezing rain Saturday.  Accumulations of one to six inches of snow and ice of approximately half inch are expected.  Gusty winds and ice may cause some power outages.

Northeast
On Sunday a wintry mix will change to rain across western and southern Pennsylvania, central and southern New Jersey, New York City and Long Island and southeast New England, but could stay all frozen over northeast Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, upstate New York, interior southern New England and northern New England.  Parts of New England, especially over portions of New Hampshire and Maine, could see from 12 to 18 inches of snow Sunday.  (NWS)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

U.S. Drought

The key weather system over the next few days will be a storm moving from the Four Corners region to the Great Lakes states.  Locally heavy rain and snow will overspread the Southwest through December 1, 2007.  Precipitation will develop across portions of the Plains on December 1, 2007 and the storm's cold front will sweep into the East on December 2-3, 2007.  Weather system will provide little relief to the drought conditions. 

Dry weather will prevail nationwide in the storm's wake, except for persistent rain and snow showers in the Northwest.  Outlook for December 6-12, 2007 calls for colder than normal weather across the Eastern U.S., while warmer than normal conditions will prevail in the High Plains westward.  Most of the nation will receive below normal precipitation. (NWS U.S. Drought Monitor)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No current tropical activity.  (NWS National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, USN Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

On Saturday December 01, 2007 at 12:13 a.m. AKST a magnitude 4.48 earthquake occurred at a depth of 40 miles under the Gulf of Alaska approximately 266 miles southeast of Valdez AK. No injuries, no damage, and no tsunami reported. (USGS, Alaska Earthquake Information Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Fire activity across the nation was light last week, with 297 new fires reported.  Currently three uncontained large fires are burning, one each in Arizona (Grant Fire), California (Jack Fire), and New Mexico (Ojo Peak Fire)
National Preparedness Level: 4
States Most Affected:  Arizona, California, and New Mexico
National Fire Activity as of Friday November 30, 2007:

• Initial Attack Activity:  light with 297 new fires.
• New large fires:  4
• Large fires contained:  3
• Uncontained large fires:  3
• 2007 acres burned to date:  8,900,885 (National Interagency Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The President signed a major disaster declaration (FEMA-1732-DR) for Individual Assistance for one county (Lake County) in Indiana November 30, 2007.  In addition, all counties in the State of Indiana are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.  Additional designations may be made at a later date. The declaration is a result of severe storms and flooding occurring August 15-27, 2007.  The FCO is Donald Keldsen of the National FCO Program. (FEMA HQ)