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National Situation Update: Tuesday, June 5, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

West
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany a strong Pacific cold front moving eastward through the Interior West and southward through California, accompanied by strong gusty winds. The Northwest may experience snow levels down to 5,000 or 6,000 feet in the Cascades. Precipitation will extend southward into northern California and eastward into the Rockies; however the drought-bound Great Basin will remain windy and dry. Isolated severe storms are expected over the northern Rockies, in parts of eastern Wyoming, and into far eastern Colorado. Critical fire weather conditions continue in the southern Great Basin and parts of the Southwest due to high winds and long-term drought.

Northeast
A storm system in the Great Lakes will shift to the east, bringing cooler temperatures, showers and isolated severe thunderstorms to New York State and New England. This will be the first in a series of storms this week, expected to bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the upper Plains and Midwest, as well as the Northeast.

Midwest
Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will occur across the Midwest and parts of the Plains, but no excessive rainfall is expected. A second area of storms will develop over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, where the strongest thunderstorms may produce heavy rain, large hail, gusty winds and isolated tornadoes.

South
Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the region, however many locations will see no showers or storms at all. Isolated severe storms will stretch from southern Louisiana eastward across southern Georgia and northern Florida.  (NWS, Media Sources)

State Assessing Eastern Iowa Tornado

State of Iowa emergency management officials were in Jackson County (eastern Iowa) Monday assessing damage from a tornado that hit Jackson and two other counties Saturday. The tornado destroyed one mobile home, and damaged five other homes and many other out-buildings, and sheds on farms.

Destruction was visible across Muscatine County and surrounding areas, where the tornado, with winds of 136 to 140 mph, cut through businesses and homes and knocked down trees and power lines.

Governor Culver has issued disaster proclamations for Jackson County along with Louisa and Muscatine Counties.(Media sources)

Tropical Cyclone Gonu Heads for Oman

As of Monday morning, EDT, powerful Tropical Cyclone Gonu was roughly 265 miles southeast of Muscat, Oman. Winds were sustained near 143 mph and movement was to the northwest at around 9 mph.

Gonu is expected to be near the northeastern tip of Oman late Wednesday (U. S. time). It should be somewhat weaker by then with maximum sustained winds down to 115 mph, but still equivalent to a category three hurricane. Maximum significant wave height at 041200Z is 40 feet.

After that, the cyclone is forecast to move northeastward along the northern coast of Oman and then into the Gulf of Oman as a tropical storm. While tropical storms have hit Oman in the past, they are rare, and there is no record of a hurricane-strength cyclone striking the country.

The last tropical storm to impact the nation was in June 1996.

Oman authorities evacuated 7,000 people from coastal areas in the east of the country and the island of Masirah.  Oil prices rose overnight because of concerns about disruptions.
(Media sources)

TD Barry Rain Totals

Highest storm total rainfall amounts in inches, by state, recorded through Monday 9:00 pm EDT:

Florida...West Palm Beach  6.99
Georgia...Mount Vernon                 8.00
South Carolina...Hardeeville   6.12
North Carolina...Fuquay-Varina         3.73
Virginia...Pennington Gap             3.75
Maryland...Frostburg                   1.70
Pennsylvania...Philadelphia   1.66
Delaware...Dover    1.54
New Jersey...Absecon                   4.50
New York... Central Park     3.91
Connecticut...Berlin                  2.90
Massachusetts...Taunton               3.19
Rhode Island...Burrillville            3.10
New Hampshire...Newmarket             2.75
Maine...Saco                            2.64

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
At 11:00 pm EDT Monday the National Hurricane Center issued the final advisory on extratropical rainstorm Barry. Remnants of the storm were expected to move north-northeastward into Quebec Canada by morning, leaving additional rainfall amounts under one inch across northern New England. Maximum sustained winds were 30 mph.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclones are expected to affect U.S. Territories or interests through Wednesday afternoon. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A series of light to moderate earthquakes, 4.9 to 5.1 magnitudes, were reported in the Guam Region in the last 24 hours, 105 to 120 miles SW of Hagatna, Guam. Depth approx. 6 miles.  No reports of damage or injuries. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  2

States Most Affected: Georgia and Florida

National Fire Activity as of Monday, 4 June, 2007 at 10:00 am EDT:

• Initial attack activity: Light (154 new fires burning 1,412 acres).
• New large fires:                         4
• Large fires contained:                5
• Uncontained large fires:           13
• Year to date fires:             37,525
• Year to date acres burned 1,343,332

Current Fire Situation:
No structures were lost yesterday; an estimated 291 structures have been lost to date. There are 4,424 personnel committed to wildland fires nationally, an increase of 3.9% from Sunday. Firefighting resources in Florida and Georgia continue to focus on mop up efforts, road rehabilitation, monitoring fire activities and areas of reborn.

Fire Weather Discussion:
On Monday an upper level trough moved into the Northwest bringing mixed wet and dry thunderstorms to the Great Basin and along the higher elevations of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. Winds increased ahead of the storm system across southeast Oregon, California, the Great Basin and the Southwest. Warm, dry and windy conditions will continue over northeast Alaska.

Tropical Storm Barry brought needed rainfall to portions of the southeast allowing most incidents to make substantial suppression progress over the weekend. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, Joint Information Center FL/GA), media)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1698-DR-Vermont: Amendment #1.  The major disaster declaration for the State of Vermont is amended to include Lamoille County for Public Assistance.(FEMA HQ)