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National Situation Update: Saturday, June 2, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

Tropical Storm Barry Spreads Rain Northward
South:  Tropical Storm Barry will produce much needed rain up through the Florida Peninsula.
The Peninsula could pick up 2 to 4 inches with locally heavier amounts.

Barry will move across northern Florida Saturday, June 2, 2007 and then along or just inland from the Southeast Coast.

A surface boundary over the southern Plains will be the focus for severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain over the next three days.

Midwest:  A disturbance aloft will move eastward from the Plains to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this weekend and then exit the Midwest on Monday, June 4, 2007.

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, will be in the forecast through the weekend across most of the region.

Northeast:  Tropical Storm Barry will move northeastward and become extra tropical, reaching the coastal Mid-Atlantic region Sunday night, June 3, 2007 and Monday, June 4, 2007 and then the New England Coast later Monday and early Tuesday, June 5, 2007.

Gusty winds, rough surf and rip currents will affect the coast, ahead of the storm. A steady rain will invade the Chesapeake Bay area, the Delaware Valley, southeast New York and both southern and eastern New England, tapering off from south to north Monday, June 4, 2007.
 
West:  A cold front will come into Washington and Oregon and then sweep eastward into Montana, Wyoming and Colorado by Wednesday, June 6, 2007. Scattered thunderstorms will increase across the northern parts of the Great Basin, the northern and central Rockies and the northern high Plains.   (NWS, Media Sources)

Tropical Storm Barry Initial Preparations

On June 1, 2007 the NRCC participated in a conference call with the National Hurricane Center (NHC), National Weather Service (NWS), FEMA Region IV, the Florida State Emergency Operation Center (SEOC) and counties, and based on that conversation FEMA HQ does not plan to activate the NRCC unless conditions deteriorate.

The NRCC Watch Staff has started producing Storm Advisories and will continue to monitor and coordinate with affected FEMA Regions and the NWS.

NWS reported that TS Barry is predicted to make landfall in the Tallahassee area Saturday afternoon (June 2, 2007) with 58 mph winds.

Florida can expect 5-6 inches of rain, with 10 inches of rain locally, and a 3-5 ft tide surge. Miami should expect 2-3 inches of rain with 5-6 inches possible through the night.

Currently reports indicate that Barry is producing winds of up to 67 mph. At this time the NWS does not anticipate that the storm will escalate to hurricane strength.  (FEMA NRCC)

Tropical Storm Threatens West Florida

Tropical Storm Barry formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Friday - the first day of hurricane season - and the National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm warning for a stretch of Florida's western coast.  Forecasters expected Barry to gradually turn north-northeast and increase in speed over the next day.

Word of the storm's development came on the first official day of a hurricane season that forecasters have said they expect to be busier than normal. The National Weather Service said it expects 13 to 17 tropical storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes and three to five in the strong category.

A Hurricane Center specialist said it was "coincidence, maybe," that the storm formed on the first day of the season.

Forecasters issued a tropical storm warning, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected in the next day, for the Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach, Fla. to Keaton Beach, Fla. A less severe tropical storm watch, meaning such conditions were expected within 36 hours, was issued from north of Keaton Beach to St. Marks.

The hurricane center said Barry threatened to bring dangerous battering waves, coastal flooding up to 5 feet and rainfall of 3 to 6 inches in the Florida Keys up through southeast Georgia.  Tropical Storm Barry formed more than three weeks after the first named storm of the year - Subtropical Storm Andrea - developed off Florida's eastern coast. Andrea skirted the southern Atlantic coast but caused minimal damage.   (Media Sources)

2007 Hurricane Season

Just because Katrina was the perfect storm - a catastrophic combo of the wrong hurricane in the wrong place at the wrong time - doesn't mean that history can't repeat itself, leaving another city obliterated by another tempest.

It can.

And as June 1 marked the start of what weather prognosticators are euphemistically calling another "active season," citizens and civil servants from Texas to New England are asking themselves, Where's the next New Orleans?

Could it be Galveston, Texas, sitting uneasily by the Gulf of Mexico, its residents limited to a single evacuation route? Or Miami, full of elderly people and others who might be trapped? Or New York City, long spared a major storm but susceptible to a calamity of submerged subways and refugees caught in horrendous traffic jams?

There are many, many vulnerable places. They are vulnerable because of geography, but mostly because Americans have a love affair with the coast; the sparsely populated oceanfront where storms of the past might have caused little damage is gone.

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that around 35 million people - 12 percent of the population - live in the coastal counties most threatened by Atlantic hurricanes. That figure has more than tripled since 1950, and the Census isn't even counting the Northern coast states.

"When I was growing up on the Redneck Riviera, most of the stuff we built was built out of plywood, and you built it with your cousins on a weekend," says Margaret Davidson, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Coastal Services Center. "And if it blew away, you got yourselves a keg of beer and you got your relatives together and you went out and built it again. "And what we now have strewn across the coast is a bunch of McMansions."

Where's the next New Orleans? Pick a place on the coast, and there's a worst-case scenario.
Here are five that are among the worst of the worst. The calamities they face are less about Mother Nature's caprices than they are about the human variety.   (Media Sources)

Central Kansas - Flooding/Flash Flooding

Beginning May 21, 2007, slow-moving storms continue to develop over much of the same areas in Kansas along and ahead of a line north to south and eastward to the Kansas/Missouri state line. 

Thunderstorm chances will continue for Friday night, June 1, 2007 through Saturday, June 2, 2007 across portions of south central and southeast Kansas. The threat for a few strong storms along with heavy rain and localized flooding may continue especially on Friday night and early Saturday.

Kansas Corporation Commission:  Reports that strong straight-line winds and lightning moved through Sedgwick County, Harvey County, and Cowley County areas after 10:00 pm  CDT on May 31, 2007 and continued throughout the early morning of June 1, 2007. Approximately 19,000 customers are without power.

Tornado Damage:
Thursday night (May 31, 2007), at approximately 2015 CDT, a large tornado passed just to the east of Smith Center (Smith County - north central Kansas - KS/NE state line).  Kansas Highway Patrol reported minor damages in Smith Center (Smith County), Kensington (Smith County) and rural areas (Smith County).  Damage estimates are $250,000-$500,000.  A County Sheriff reported the tornado was up to a ½ mile wide. 

Flooding Damages:
Barton County:  Several townships have sustained additional damages to roads.  The County has sustained damage to blacktops. 
Clay County:  Current estimate of damages from storms on May 23-24, 2007 is $500,000.  Damages were to roads, bridges, culverts etc.  Engineers have determined that two bridges damaged in the earlier storms will need to be replaced. 
Approximately 20 locations remain barricaded with water over the road or bridge damage. 
Lincoln County:  Staff continue to grade roads in attempt to open them as soon as possible.  Two or three bridges will need to be repaired or replaced. 
Marshall County:  Flooding has occurred throughout the county causing damage to bridges and roadways.  Tuttle Creek Reservoir is releasing low amounts of water, which is causing back-up flooding up the Blue River.
Ottawa County:  Ottawa County had road, bridge, culvert etc. damage on May 24, 2007 from the large amount of rainfall.  Residents in southeast Ottowa County were advised by Emergency Management early in the day to evacuate because of rising water. Preliminary Public Assistance damages are over $100,000.
Reno:  Flooding as a result of storms on May 23, 2007 has caused significant damage to local roads. 
Rice:  Flood waters started to recede over the holiday weekend (May 25-28, 2007).  Many black top and sand roads have been washed out.  
Saline:  Power lines and tree limbs are down around the County.  Wind gusts of up to 65 mph were reported.  Radar estimated over five inches of rain fell in less than an hour causing area rivers and creeks to rise rapidly. 

Levees
On May 21, 2007 the Department of Water Resources (DWR) inspected the failed levee in Reno County Drainage District No. 3 along the south side of the Arkansas River.  Several breaches were observed: 
A large breach, about 100 feet wide and 8 to 10 feet deep, was observed. This breach is located about 3/8 mile west of the Reno/Sedgwick county line, near Mount Hope. 
A second breach is located about 7 miles upstream. The breach is about 50 feet wide with a scour hole.  The next breach is located about a mile upstream. 
 The last location is in Reno Drainage District 2, on the north side of the Ark River.  It appears to threaten multiple homes.

Dams
Shawnee County, Sherwood Dam:  Boil-like areas noted below the downstream toe of the dam. Auxiliary spillway flowed during event.
Jackson County, Banner Creek:  Water was flowing from the back side of the concrete primary spillway outlet box.  The dam is being monitored.

State and Federal Response:
The Governor of Kansas signed a State of Emergency Declaration on May 30, 2007 for 14 counties which have experienced flooding from May 21, 2007 and continuing.
The State of Kansas has requested joint FEMA/State PDAs for Public Assistance only in 3 counties and 10 counties for Individual and Public Assistance.  PDAs will begin this week.   (FEMA Region VII, KS EOC)

Iowa Severe Storms And Tornadoes

Severe storms containing heavy rain, high winds, hail and tornadoes crossed eastern Iowa this afternoon (June 1, 2007). More moderate storms will continue through the evening into Saturday (June 2, 2007). 

Jackson County: Local damage reports indicate one mobile home destroyed, 6-7 homes with roofs off, and downed power lines in Maquoketa. The Rural Electric Coop is working restore power. The ARC is providing vouchers for 5 families.
Louisa County: Power outages and natural gas leaks are reported in Grandview. Alliant Energy/IPL reports initial electric outages at 400, but they expect that to be reduced to 150 soon.
Muscatine County: Local reports of six homes destroyed in the Fruitland area, directly to the southwest of the city of Muscatine. The Muscatine Mall and farms were damaged in the Wilton and Durant areas.
The Iowa Municipal Utilities report that at least 6 municipal utilities are sending crews to help Muscatine Power and Water repair electric damage in the Muscatine and Fruitland areas. 
Currently the State Patrol are taking all calls for the Muscatine Police Department.
IDOT staff report that the main garage building in Muscatine is intact, but a wall may have shifted. Two pole buildings with equipment in them have been destroyed.

State and Federal Response:
The Governor issued a verbal proclamation for tornado response and the State EOC is activated at a Level IV (limited state agencies and 24-hour operations). The American Red Cross is coordinating with the State EOC. 
FEMA Region VII RRCC is activated at Level III with extended hours in coordination with HLSEM.  No Federal assistance is requested. Potential for Federal involvement is unknown at this time.   (FEMA Region VII)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located near latitude 25.9 north longitude 84.2 west or about 180 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida and about 175 miles west-northwest of Key West, Florida.
Barry is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours.  This motion should bring the center of Barry across the west coast of the Florida Peninsula later today, June 2, 2007.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts.  Satellite imagery shows minimal thunderstorm activity near the center at this time and slow weakening is expected during the next 24 hours.  Barry will likely lose tropical characteristics after it makes landfall.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center.  Winds near tropical-storm force are occurring along portions of the southern and eastern coasts of the Florida Peninsula at this time with a NOAA buoy east of Cape Canaveral reporting gusts to 40 mph during the past few hours.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

Eastern Pacific:
At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was located near latitude 14.4 north longitude 92.7 west or about 210 miles southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico.  This position is about 30 miles west-southwest of the coastline at the border between Mexico and Guatemala.
Barbara is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph and this general motion is expected to continue until Barbara makes landfall near the Mexico/Guatemala border later this morning, June 2, 2007.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is expected before the center makes landfall.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

Western Pacific: No significant activity to report. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  2

National Fire Activity:

Initial attack activity 240 (Moderate)
New large fires:   0
Large fires contained:  1
Uncontained large fires:  14
Year to date fires:  36, 714
Year to date acres burned 1,334,672

Fire Weather Discussion:  Thunderstorms, some of them dry, are expected today across the Sierra Mountains, Northern California, western Nevada, and Oregon. Otherwise, hot and dry conditions will prevail across the West. The Southeast will see some relief with increased humidity and scattered showers. Interior Alaska will have scattered showers and isolated wet thundershowers with gusty winds along the Alaska Range.  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1699-DR-KS is amended effective June 1, 2007.  Amendment 6 adds one county for Individual Assistance, and 17 counties for Public Assistance.  (FEMA HQ)