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National Situation Update: Friday, February 10, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant Snow Forecast For The Mid-Atlantic And Northeast

Northeast: The frontal system will move over the East Coast later today. Precipitation from Southeast Virginia to coastal New Jersey will start as rain. Heavy snow could overspread the Mid-Atlantic States Saturday and Saturday night and then shift into eastern New York and New England Saturday night and Sunday. Areas from West Virginia to southeastern Pennsylvania could get up to eight inches of snow by Sunday morning. East-central Pennsylvania, the Pocono Mountains and far northern New Jersey to Down East Maine could see eight to twelve inches or possibly more, as the intensifying storm heads from near Delaware Bay to New Brunswick. Winter Storm Watches have been issued in a broad swath from Arkansas to Southern New England.

Note that the exact track of the storm will have a big impact on where the heaviest snow falls:

• If the storm center edges slightly inland from the coast, sleet and even rain could reduce the snow in Washington, Philadelphia and New York City and force the band of heaviest snow even farther inland.
• If the storm center remains more offshore, the heaviest snows could shift eastward and closer to the coast from northern Virginia to New Jersey and Long Island to southeast Massachusetts and Cape Cod.

South: A low pressure system and associated front will produce rain over central and eastern Texas early today. As the low-pressure center tracks eastward along the northern Gulf, rain and thunderstorms will shift across the lower Mississippi River Valley and into the Tennessee Valley and Georgia. A few of the thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast could become severe. The northern fringe of the band will be snow across northern and central Arkansas and the northern half of Tennessee with moderate to heavy accumulation possible. The storm will head from Georgia to the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow. The storm will be mostly a rain event for the Southeast, but snow accumulations are likely in the Cumberland Plateau and southern Appalachians.

Midwest: Northerly winds will be strong and gusty (35-to-50-mph) over the Plains. Some snow flurries will fall from the Dakotas to Michigan and blowing snow will continue to be a problem in parts of the northern Plains. Significant snow is forecast for Kentucky on Saturday and spread across southern and eastern Ohio. Expect three to six inches of snow, with up to eight inches in the extreme eastern Kentucky/West Virginia.

West: The cold front moving southward through the High Plains will produce up to two inches of snow in Denver. High pressure is building over the West today and Saturday. Strong winds will blow through the Columbia Gorge (gusts to 60 mph) and the passes of the Cascades. In Southern California the building high-pressure area in the Great Basin will strengthen the Santa Ana winds and keep the fire danger high.(USDOC/NOAA/NWS and Various Commercial and Media Sources)

Volcano Activity

Seismicity at Alaska's Augustine volcano remains at low levels but is still above background. A plume composed of gas, steam, and small amounts of ash continues to be emitted from the summit and low-level dilute ash clouds are likely present in the vicinity of the volcano. The current Level of Concern Color Code remains Orange. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Volcano Observatory)

Tropical Activity

There are no active tropical disturbances in the Atlantic.

In the Pacific, The Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Pearl Harbor Hawaii has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for an area of convection near 16.2S 171.6W, approximately 140 miles south-southwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa. Available data does not justify issuance of numbered tropical cyclone warnings at this time. The system is moving southeastward at 6 mph. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is good. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No significant earthquake activity during the past 24 hours in the United States or its Territories. (Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1619-DR-CT has been amended to add Hartford County for Public Assistance. (FEMA HQ)