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National Situation Update: Monday, February 6, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Special Event - Super Bowl XL

The 40th Super Bowl at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan was designated a Homeland Security Special Event (HSSE) Level I by the Secretary of Homeland Security.

There were no articulated or credible known threats specific to Super Bowl 40.  However, the large crowds, heavy media attention, and the cultural significance of the event could have provided a unique opportunity for a terrorist act and the City of Detroit and south-eastern Michigan also presented several unique geographical, industrial, and community targets for a potential terrorist attack.

DHS-FEMA Region V provided a Liaison Officer to the Detroit Joint Operations Center and a Liaison Officer to the Michigan Emergency Management Division, State Emergency Operations Center.  The MI-1 Disaster Medical Assistance Team (DMAT) and cache were also on-site at Ford Field for a training exercise.

The HSSE terminated at midnight local time. Other than weather-related power outages, there were no reportable incidents.

• High winds and wet snow downed power lines in parts of eastern Michigan.  Fortunately, Wayne County, including Detroit, was spared and there were no negative impacts to the Special Event - Super Bowl XL.
• A winter storm that swept across the region Saturday initially cut off electricity to 30,000 customers. Power to a little more than half of them was restored by Sunday afternoon and although Detroit Edison Company repair crews hoped to restore service to all customers by 6:00 p.m. Sunday, continued high winds brought down more power lines and others fell under the weight of wet snow, leaving about 11,000 customers without service as of 8:30 p.m.   Repairs were continuing Sunday night. Edison hoped to restore power throughout its 2.1 million-customer service area by late Monday.
• Half of those without power were in the "thumb region" of Lower Michigan, along with several thousand in Livingston County on the western fringe of metropolitan Detroit. The remainder were scattered throughout Oakland and Macomb counties.
• In addition, about 14,500 Consumers Energy Company customers were without power as of midday Sunday, but that number had been reduced to 8,660 by 9:30 p.m. Sunday. Most were in the Flint, Saginaw, and Gladwin areas.  (DHS, FEMA HQ, and Various Commercial and Media Sources)

National Weather Summary

In the eastern United States, scattered snow showers lingered over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and portions of the Appalachians as a low pressure system impacted the region.

• Through the evening hours, locally heavy snowfall was reported in western Pennsylvania, northeastern Ohio, and far western New York.
• In addition, gusty winds up to 35 miles-per-hour accompanied these snow showers. Farther north, a mixture of rain and freezing rain fell in portions of Maine.
• Farther south, conditions were dry with partly cloudy skies in the Southeast, Carolinas, and the Gulf Coast states.

In the center of the country, scattered snow showers stretched from the western Dakotas into western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Snowfall rates were light in these areas. Conditions over the remainder of the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and the Midwest were dry with clear to partly cloudy skies.

In the West, isolated snow showers impacted portions of northern Colorado, Montana, and northern Idaho, but snowfall rates were light in most places. Sky conditions ranged from mostly cloudy in the northern and central Rockies to clear to partly cloudy in the southern Rockies, Great Basin, and the Desert Southwest.  (USDOC/NOAA/NWS and Various Commercial and Media Sources)

Earthquake and Volcano Activity

At the Augustine Volcano, the current level of concern is color code ORANGE.  Seismicity remains unchanged since yesterday but is still above background. Low-level ash plumes and occasional pyroclastic flows on the island's flanks continue. Further explosive activity producing ash clouds to altitudes over 25,000 feet may still occur with little or no warning. The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) is monitoring the situation closely and the observatory is staffed 24/7.

Three regional (non-volcanic) earthquakes occurred in the Homer area of the Kenai Peninsula during this reporting period.

• The larger of the two earthquakes occurred at 05/1615 (UTC) or 7:15 a.m. Alaska time on Sunday, February 05, 2006. The magnitude 5.1 event was located in Southern Alaska, 5 miles NNW of Seldovia and 13 miles SW of Homer, Alaska.  The quake was centered  at a depth of 31 miles.  The magnitude was such that a tsunami was not be generated.  There have been no reports of damages or injuries and no requests for Federal assistance.
• The two smaller events, two magnitude 2.6 earthquakes, occurred before and after the magnitude 5.1 event.  One occurred 90 minutes before the event about 25 miles west of the large event and the other about 40 minutes afterwards about 20 miles north of the larger event. 
• In addition, 13 earthquakes ranging in magnitude of 3.1 to 5.1 were detected in the vicinity of Chalkyitsik in northern Alaska.  There were no reports of damages or injuries.  There were no requests for Federal assistance.  The magnitudes were such that tsunamis were not generated.   (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program)

National Weather Outlook

South

• With cold air in place over the South Monday, a low-pressure area "scooting" east along the northern Gulf Coast may deliver some atypical Southern snow to parts of the region.
• The best possibility and opportunity for accumulating snow Monday would appear to be across southern Tennessee, extreme northeast Mississippi, far northern Alabama, far northern Georgia, and southwest North Carolina (as well as adjacent South Carolina counties). 
• A few elevated spots in extreme southern Tennessee, northeast Georgia and southwest North Carolina could receive 4 to 6 inches.
• Farther south, rain will dampen much of the Deep South with some thunder possible near the Gulf Coast.
• Texas and Oklahoma will remain dry, but the drought and low relative humidity will exacerbate the fire weather concerns.
• High temperatures are expected to range from the 30s in some of the snowy areas to the 70s in south Texas and southern Florida.
• Rain will shift to along the Southeast Coast by Tuesday morning and then out to sea.
• Reinforcing cold air will arrive in the Southeast for Thursday and then a much colder air mass will arrive for entire South next weekend.

Northeast

• Blustery winds bearing seasonably cold will sweep over the Northeast Monday.
• Heavy lake-effect snow will fall downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario with lighter snow showers over other parts of the interior Northeast.
• By early Tuesday, up to two feet of snow is expected to have buried some locations in southwestern New York (east of Lake Erie) and the Tug Hill Plateau (east of Lake Ontario).
• Temperatures will be seasonal for early February, although the gusty winds will add significant chill.  A patchwork of winter weather advisories, snow advisories and winter storm watches has been issued.
• Highs are forecast to range from the 20s in interior areas to the 50s in south-central and southeast Virginia.
• Two more "shots" of cold air Thursday and then next weekend are forecast. 
  Midwest
• A storm center swirling over southeastern Canada will continue to sweep cold winds and snow over the Great Lakes and Appalachians as far south as West Virginia.
• Snow showers and flurries will continue to dust Michigan and northeast Ohio Monday, although accumulations (one to six inches) should be confined to the Upper Peninsula (UP) of Michigan, northern Lower Michigan, and extreme northeast Ohio.
• Snow showers and gusty winds also extend from northern and eastern Indiana and Ohio into the mountains of West Virginia.
• Farther west, some light snow or flurries (perhaps an inch or so) may also dust the eastern Dakotas.
• Blustery winds, meanwhile, will continue to buffet areas from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley.
• High temperatures are forecast to range from the 20s in North Dakota, the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes to the 50s in western Kansas. Readings in the 30s and low 40s will prevail in the Ohio Valley.
• Much colder air will arrive in the Plains and Midwest next weekend. 

West

• Outside of few snow showers in the mountains of northeast Washington, far northern Idaho and northwest Montana, the western US will be dry Monday.
• In Southern California, a weak Santa Ana will waft through the mountains increasing the wildfire danger there.
• Overall, with plenty of sunshine in most locations, high temperatures will range from the 20s in some Rocky Mountain areas to the 80s in far southeast California and southwest Arizona. 
• Much of Southern California will enjoy highs in the 70s while the lower elevations of Washington and Oregon see readings in the 40s and 50s.
• The West could stay mostly precipitation free into next weekend.
• Air stagnation, fog and low clouds could become a problem for some of the valleys of the Pacific Northwest as the week goes on. 
• Coastal gales are expected between February 6-8, 2006 in the Gulf of Alaska between the Kenai Peninsula and the Alexander Archipelago.  (USDOC/NOAA/NWS and Various Commercial and Media Sources)

Tropical Activity

There are no active tropical disturbances in the Atlantic or Pacific areas affecting United States interests. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Critical and Extreme Fire Weather will continue as another upper level system moves across the central and southern plains today helping to push another generally dry cold front across Oklahoma and Texas and as a large and strong surface high pressure system builds over the western inter-mountain region and desert southwest setting the stage for a Santa Ana wind event over Southern California. 

As a result, the NWS has forecast critical fire weather area for Southern California portions of north- and south-central Texas through the lower Rio Grande Valley through noon EST, Monday, February 6, 2006.

A large high pressure system will cover much of the central and western US behind a cold front over the eastern US.  This weather pattern will result in an on-going Santa Ana event with strong and gusty winds, very low humidity, and very high to extreme fire danger for Southern California through Tuesday, February 7, 2006.

The State of Texas in the last 24-hour period up to 10:00 am Sunday, February 5, 2006, responded to 8 fires for 130 acres, statewide.  There were new reports of 158 fires that burned 50,614 acres and 21 home threatened and saved.  There were no persons evacuated.

Since December 26th, there have been 4,566 fires burning approximately 789,849 acres in the State of Texas and for the same period, there have been 351 homes lost and 1,995 homes saved. Currently there are no active fires burning.

There is currently equipment and personnel from 41 states other than Texas committed to fire suppression operations and the State of Texas has 78 aircraft, 84 bulldozers, 20 fire engines, and approximately 712 State personnel in direct support of wildfire operations.  The State's current priorities are:

• Protection of life and property
• Rapid and effective wildfire response
• Firefighter safety
• Rapid damage assessment
• Maximum public awareness of threat

The State of Oklahoma did not submit an updated Situation Report reflecting the current situation and response posture.  (USDOC/NOAA/NWS/SPC, NIFC, State of Texas, and FEMA R-VI)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)