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National Situation Update: Saturday, February 4, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Outlook

South:  An intensifying low-pressure system will turn northward from the western Carolinas toward the eastern Great Lakes today. Heavy rain and a few severe thunderstorms will precede the cold front through the eastern Carolinas during the morning and strong-to-severe thunderstorms will press southward through the Florida Peninsula, hopefully moving fast enough to prevent any further flooding. Strong west-to-northwest winds behind the storm will bring much colder air into the Southeast through the weekend. By tomorrow, a new windy, moisture-starved low-pressure system will develop over the south-central states with well above-average temperatures and high fire danger for Texas.

Northeast:  An intensifying low-pressure area will race northward, pushing into southeast Ontario by early tomorrow. The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will be on the warm rainy side of the storm and a few severe thunderstorms could pop in the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the cold front. Much colder air will rush in behind the storm and cold front on strong west-to-northwest winds. The rain will change to snow in the mountains of West Virginia and southwest Virginia. Tonight and tomorrow, heavy lake-effect snow will develop over northwest Pennsylvania, southwest New York (just south of Buffalo) and across the Tug Hill Plateau east of Lake Ontario.

West:  A powerful storm is heading into the Pacific Northwest. Strong, damaging winds will hit western Washington and western Oregon. The coastal headlands either side of the mouth of the Columbia could experience wind gusts in excess of 100 mph this morning. Rainfall could reach 3 inches in the favored areas of the coastal range and the lower flanks of the Cascades. Once the cold front moves through, snow levels will be as low as 1500 to 3500 feet in the Cascades and Siskiyou.

Midwest:  A developing low-pressure area that will move from the western Carolinas to Lake Erie and then into Canada this weekend will put the Midwest on the cold side of the storm. Rain will quickly change to snow across eastern Kentucky and Ohio today. Between the Indiana-Ohio border and the Cleveland-Columbus line, portions of western Ohio could pick up over 12 inches of snow by early tomorrow. Also, southeast Michigan could pick up significant accumulations. As the storm exits into Canada tonight, the lake-effect snow machine will take over right into Tuesday. Northernmost Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and northeast Ohio could eventually be the big lake-effect snow targets. After that, disturbances moving from central Canada through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will attempt to reinforce the cold air and supply the support for a steady stream of snow showers.   (NWS, Media Sources)

Regional Activities

Florida:  Severe Weather
A severe weather system, producing heavy rains and over running, is affecting Florida.  The central to south portion of the State is under flood warnings.   According to the Tampa Bay Weather Service, major flooding is possible in the Tampa Bay area, Pinellas and central Hillsborough Counties; and the possibility also exists for some flooding in Polk and eastern Manatee Counties. 

This weather is not anticipated to let up for the next day or so.  Tomorrow is anticipated to be a high risk for flooding.  Pinellas County Emergency Management Agency personnel reported a building at a local mall (Bed, Bath and Beyond) has collapsed due to water on the roof.  One person was transported to the local hospital and a local search and rescue team is on site to search for possible trapped individuals.  Another building complex also collapsed, no injuries reported, and the local ambulance dispatch is out of commission due to damages.  Calls are being relayed to the 9-1-1.

The State EOC is not officially activated for this event.  They were already at a Level 3 and are monitoring the situation.  The State EOC and affected counties, along with the Tampa Bay Weather Service, participated on a conference call at 1300 EST.

The Pinellas County EOC has activated.  The County has requested National Guard assets for high wheeled vehicles to retrieve stranded motorists.  The EMS is unable to reach some isolated areas.  Hillsborough County has also reported some localized flooding.  Polk County is monitoring the situation and looking at resources for a local event as well as supporting other counties.  (FEMA Region IV, FL EOC)

Alaskan Augustine Volcano Update

Poor visibility prevented clear observation of the volcano by AVO observers in a fixed wing aircraft this afternoon. They reported that a plume emerged from the cloud tops and reached no higher than 6,000 feet above sea level. It was comprised mainly of condensed steam, with more ash-rich clouds being produced occasionally from a source slightly farther down the northern flank. The ash-rich clouds likely resulted from pyroclastic flows. Sea ice off the western shore of Augustine Island had ash deposited on it.

An AVO field crew flew in a helicopter to Augustine today. They added batteries to the station at Mound and cleaned ash from the web camera's lens and housing. They also finished the installation of a new seismic station. The seismic station is located on the lower flanks of the volcano in the southeast quadrant of the island.

Further explosive activity producing ash clouds to altitudes over 25,000 feet may still occur with little or no warning. AVO is monitoring the situation closely and the observatory is staffed 24/7.  (NOAA/NWS, Alaska Volcano Observatory)

Tropical Activity

There are no active tropical disturbances in the Atlantic or Pacific areas affecting United States interests. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1628-DR-CA Declared February 3, 2006 for Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides from December 17, 2005 through January 3, 2006.  The declaration provides for Individual Assistance for 10 Counties; Public Assistance for 29 Counties; and eligibility for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program for all counties in the state of California.

FEMA-1629-DR-NV Declared February 3, 2006 for Severe Storms and Flooding from December 31, 2005 through January 4, 2006.  The declaration provides for Public Assistance for 5 counties and two Tribal Areas; and eligibility for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program for all counties in the state of Nevada.  (FEMA HQ)