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National Situation Update: Saturday, June 24, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Flooding Possible Along East Coast this Weekend - Hot, Dry in West

Northeast:  A cold front is forecast to move slowly through the Northeast from New England to West Virginia this weekend. Rain and thunderstorms are expected during Saturday and Sunday all along the edge of the front. Highs are expected to be in the 70s-80s this weekend. Rain showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue during the beginning of the week, increasing the chances for flooding, especially in the New England states.

South:  Most of the South will continue to see warm weather during the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are expected in large portions of the South along the Atlantic coast from Virginia to Florida as a storm system moves eastward. Highs will be in the 80s from Virginia to Georgia. The Gulf Coast states including Florida will see highs in the 90s.

Midwest:  Thunderstorms are possible in Nebraska, Kansas, South Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin on Saturday. Some storms may be accompanied by high winds and hail. Highs in the Midwest will range in the 70s-80s in the northern tier reaching the 90s in the southern areas near Kansas and Oklahoma.

West:  The vast majority of the West will continue to see very hot, dry, and sunny weather. Temperatures in the Desert Southwest and Central Valley of California will continue near 100+ degrees. A high pressure will move into the Pacific Northwest this weekend where temperatures will hit the 90s in Washington and Oregon. There is no appreciable rainfall forecast for the West this weekend. (National Weather Service, Media sources)

Arizona Wildfire Update

BRINS Fire:  Firefighters reported progress Friday in limiting expansion of the Brins Fire located in the Coconino National Forest two miles north of Sedona, Arizona.  Containment of the 4,000-acre fire has improved to 15 percent.  The eastern flank along State Highway 89A in Oak Creek Canyon is holding and protecting dozens of structures.  The fire's northern advance through Sterling Canyon is slowing due to favorable winds and focused suppression by aircraft and hotshot crews.  Protective measures are sparing Slide Rock State Park.

Fire officials and local authorities maintain mandatory evacuation notices due to flare-up potential and dry thunderstorms and anticipate full containment in five to six days.  Approximately 581 residential structures and 40 businesses remain threatened with no structures damaged to date, and 430 homes in Oak Creek Canyon remain evacuated.  State Route 89A (Sedona-to-Flagstaff) remains closed in both directions from northern Oak Creek Canyon to northern Sedona.  The Coconino Forest closed to recreational visitors Friday for the duration of the fire season.

Eight helicopters, 17 hand crews, and 31 engines are assigned; 664 total personnel.  Daytime high temperatures are topping 100 degrees with eight percent humidity.

The Arizona State Operations Center in Phoenix remains activated at watch level 24/7 with support agencies alerted.  The Coconino County EOC is activated 24/7.  Two American Red Cross shelters are established, one at Northern Arizona University in Flagstaff and one at an elementary school in Sedona.  The Coconino County Department of Health maintains an air quality health advisory due to smoke. 

A Fire Management Assistance Grant was approved by FEMA Region IX on June 18.  No other requests for Federal assistance at this time beyond Federal firefighting resources. (FEMA Region IX, Arizona Division of Emergency Management,  and media reports)

Colorado Wildfire Update

MATO VEGA (FEMA-2646-FM-CO):  This 13,153 acre lightning-caused fire is burning in timber, logging slash, and grass, 12 miles northeast of Ft. Garland, CO on the northwest side of US Highway 160.  A Type 2 IMT is assigned.  Two hundred-eighty primary structures, an FAA communication site, and commercial resources are potentially threatened.  No structures have been destroyed.  Structure protection continues.  Evacuations remain in effect.  Starting the evening of June 22, 2006, US highway 160 will be open at night time without restrictions, and open under control of pilot vehicles from 07:00 AM to 07:00 PM MDT.  Single tree torching at upper elevations and short runs in lower elevations was observed.  The fire is 35 percent contained with an estimated containment date of June 30. 

Other than FEMA-2646-FM-CO, there is no request for federal assistance at this time. (FEMA Region VIII, U.S. Forest Service, CO OEM)

New Mexico Wildfire Update

RIVERA MESA:  The fire has burned 11,040 acres on State and private land. The fire is 50% contained. Winds are forecasted at 20-30 mph over the next several days with temperatures in the 90s and relative humidity at approximately 10%.  The fire is seven miles north of Ocate in timber, grass, ponderosa pine and scrub oak. Structures, power lines, the Philmont Boy Scout Ranch, and the communities of Meami and Rayado are threatened. Highway 21 is now open while County Road 21 remains closed. The estimated containment date is June 27. An FMAG (FEMA-2647-FM-NM) was approved on June 21.  (FEMA HQ)

Ohio Flooding Update

As of 5:00 p.m. EST June 23, approximately 90,000 customers were without power as a result of storm damages on June 21. Utilities indicate all power should be restored by Monday. There are 6 shelters open with approximately 50 evacuees. Rivers are receding below flood stage. There are no rain forecasts for the next 48 hours. Local and State emergency managers continue to assess damages. (FEMA Region V, Ohio EMA, media sources)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic:  Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the broad area of low pressure centered near 27 N 74 W or about 330 miles east of Florida has become better organized. Upper level winds have become somewhat more favorable for development and a tropical or sub-tropical depression could form during the next day or so as the system drifts slowly west-northwestward toward the Northern Bahamas and Florida peninsula during the weekend. Meteorologists will continue to monitor progress of storm activity in this area.

Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:  No tropical storm activity.

Eastern Pacific: No tropical storm activity.

Western Pacific: No tropical storm activity. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

Approximately 16 earthquakes ranging in magnitude from 3.4 to 5.3 have been reported in the Aleutian Islands (Alaska) during the past 24 hours. No reports of any injuries or damages and no indication of tsunamis. (Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Individual Assistance and Public Assistance PDAs for eight areas are scheduled to begin on June 26 to assess damages caused by rapid snowmelt and flooding on May 5-30, 2006. (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

As of 7:30 a.m. EDT June 23, there were 160 new fires reported throughout the U.S.  Eight new large fires were reported: two in New Mexico, and one each in Colorado, Florida, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Texas, and Utah. Five large fires were contained: one each in Idaho, North Dakota, Nevada, New Mexico, and Texas. There are currently 24 active large fires; mainly in the western states. There have been 3.2 million acres burned since January 1, 2006.

Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, California, Montana, Utah, Colorado, Nebraska, New Mexico, Nevada, North Dakota, and Wyoming.

National Preparedness Level is 3 (on a scale of 1 to 5).

The major large fires affecting population centers are located in Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico.

A strong high pressure ridge covers the West with very hot and dry conditions over most areas. Dry lightning will increase over Arizona and western New Mexico with some thunderstorm activity continuing over Colorado. A weather disturbance moving across Alaska will bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms over mainly the eastern interior. (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)