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National Situation Update: Saturday, June 17, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

South:   Oklahoma, Texas (minus the far western counties and the Rio Grande), Arkansas and Louisiana are in line for beneficial rains. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains to the Texas Coast. Some areas may see 3 to 6 inches of rain by early next week, with locally higher amounts. By Monday into Tuesday, scattered thunderstorms will extend eastward through the Tennessee Valley and North Carolina. It will be mainly dry in the Carolinas and Georgia. Much of the Florida Peninsula will be dry, as well.

Northeast:  Temperatures across the Northeast will be on the increase over the weekend. Highs will be in the 90s on Saturday across the Middle Atlantic region, and up to New England by Sunday.

Midwest:  Showers and thunderstorms are forecast from the Dakotas, Nebraska and Kansas to the Mississippi Valley to Michigan, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky. Thunderstorms may be strong to severe across parts of the central and southern Plains. Sunday will feature showers and thunderstorms from Michigan down through Indiana to southeast Missouri. 

West:  The West will be mainly dry for awhile and the Desert Southwest will become extremely hot. Phoenix may reach 110 degrees by Sunday. Denver will once again hit the 90s by Sunday. Coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest and coastal areas of Southern California will become cooler through the weekend.   (National Weather Service, Media sources)

Kootenai River in Northern Idaho Not Expected to Rise – Levee System Weak

There is good news for now for residents near the Kootenai River at Bonners Ferry in northern Idaho, close to the Montana border. The river is not expected to rise above flood stage today, as predicted by water managers.

They expect the water level in the Panhandle River should stay a half-foot below the flood mark and should continue to drop later today.

However, more rain and warmer temperatures could cause more natural run-off from the mountains, more outflow into the river from Libby Dam in Montana, and therefore pose a threat for flooding and further weakening of the levee system.

The Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has completed an assessment of the status of 100 miles of levee system within the county.   They are estimating that 51 miles of the levee has received damage.  The USACE continues to repair and shore up levees within the city of Bonners Ferry.  Region X staff is in contact with USACE staff.

The City of Bonners Ferry and Boundary County have declared local Disaster Emergencies and opened their Emergency Operations Centers (EOC).  The State Department of Environmental Quality continues to monitor the threat to potable water and waste water systems in cooperation with city and county officials. The State Bureau of Homeland Security EOC has been activated to a level 3. The Governor has issued a State Disaster Declaration for Boundary County. The Local and State are discussing the potential for a Federal Request for Disaster Assistance. (Region X, media sources) 

FEMA Region Activity

The Joint Field Office in Salem, Oregon for FEMA-1632-DR-OR has closed effective June 16, 2006.

Tropical Activity

Atlantic: No tropical storm activity.
Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:  A tropical wave is well-defined as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. Wave is interacting with upper level systems producing an area of scattered moderate/strong convection.
Eastern Pacific: No tropical storm activity
Western Pacific: No tropical storm activity. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

There have been at least 21 earthquakes reported in the Aleutian Islands, Alaska in the last 24 hours, ranging in magnitude between 3.0 and 4.0. (Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

The Potato Fire 10 miles Northwest of Heber-Overgaard, a small community North of Phoenix, Arizona has consumed over 6000 acres and is 90% contained. The Navajo County Sheriff's Department has lifted the mandatory evacuations.

In southwestern New Mexico's Gila National Forest, 12 miles northeast of Silver City, a lightning-sparked fire that burned at least 8,500 acres forced the evacuation of about 200 homes after wind gusts of about 40 mph pushed the blaze over a hand-cleared line. No homes had been damaged and the fire was 30 percent contained by Friday night, authorities said.

Red Flag Warning: For southern and eastern New Mexico and far west Texas for strong winds
and low relative humidity. (National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, FEMA Region IX)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)