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National Situation Update: Thursday, August 24, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Commercial Aviation ORANGE

National Weather Forecast

Midwest:  Turbulent weather will strike the northern Plains and parts of the Midwest with cloudbursts, large hail, and damaging winds. Isolated severe storms may also erupt over the central Plains late in the day. Scattered showers and lighter storms are expected to move through southern lower Michigan and Ohio. The stormy weather will be triggered by low pressure pushing eastward over the northern Plains, a cold front extending southwestward from the low, and a quasi-stationary boundary reaching eastward out of the low into the lower Midwest.

Northeast:  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will involve much of the Northeast as a weak wave of low pressure moves eastward through the Mid-Atlantic states along a weak front. Only parts of Virginia and West Virginia and far northern New England may escape the dampness.

South:  The usual afternoon showers and thunderstorms will strike the Deep South, Florida, northeastern Texas and southeastern Oklahoma today as abundant subtropical moisture holds its ground.

West:  Most of the West will remain dry with scattered showers and thunderstorms confined to parts of the Four Corners states and northeast Montana. In the Four Corners states, the precipitation will be somewhat less widespread and vigorous than on recent days, and confined mostly to higher elevations, as the "monsoonal" flow continues to yield. (NWS, Media Sources).

FEMA Regional Activity

Region V
August 23, 2006 11:49 PM - The State of Indiana reported a tornado touchdown in Michigan City (La Porte County). There is limited communication with the county officials at this time but initial reports indicate that winds in excess of 100 MPH caused damage to at least five homes and affected electrical service. CLTV in Chicago reports thousands without power and extensive debris in the Michigan City area. The State and CLTV report that there are no injuries or deaths.

The Director of the State of Indiana Department of Homeland Security is in route to the affected area. There is no request for State assistance or Federal assistance at this time. Region V Response Operations will monitor this event and information will be disseminated as it is reported.

In an update on August 24, 2006 at 12:20 am EDT, the State EOC reports that damage from the tornado touchdown is mostly fallen trees on some homes. The local power company reports 23,000 presently without power. Ten thousand of the outages are in Michigan City, and another 13,000 reported throughout LaPorte County, IN. Only minor injuries have been reported. The State Department of Corrections has dispatched a team to assist with clearing debris.

The county and State will assess damage early this morning.  (FEMA Region V)

Region IX
Update from Region IX on Hurricane Ioke, 7:40 pm EDT, August 23, 2006 - Information received from the NWS is that on Sunday, August 27th, Ioke will turn to the south-southwest.  Although Ioke will be a Category 2 storm, it is projected to weaken.

Hurricane Ioke may stay north of the Federated States of Micronesia and head towards Guam and could impact Wake Island.  The NWS is not sure if the storm will move southward or stay to the north.  Ioke should stay at least a minimum Category 1 Hurricane, but could drop in intensity to a Tropical Storm, depending on the wind shear.

Region IX is watching the storm and coordinating closely with the NWS for updates as they are available. 

Region IX has commodities and personnel ready for a response, if needed.  (FEMA Region IX)

Region X
Columbia Complex Fire - August 23, 2006, 12:10 pm EDT.   
Fire crews from King County joined the effort to battle a fast-moving wildfire raging north of Walla Walla near the town of Dayton.  Weather forecasters predicted scattered thunderstorms, wind and low humidity as firefighters battled about half a dozen blazes around the state. Lightning ignited the Columbia County fire complex late Monday evening, and by Tuesday night the blaze had grown to more than 23 square miles of grass, brush, trees and wheat fields. 

Steady winds of 20-25 mph and gusts to 30 mph fanned the flames before subsiding after dark.  No injuries were reported and the main fires were burning to the south-southeast, away from Dayton, a town of about 2,700 people.  Approximately 200 residences, 50 commercial properties and 300 outbuildings are in immediate danger.  Evacuation of the Dayton Hospital and Retirement Home was conducted because of the smoke.  The Red Cross has set up a shelter at the Dayton High school.

Flooding in the Talkeetna and Trapper Creek areas, South Central AK. - August 23, 2006, 7:00 pm EDT. 
Flooding and mud slides brought on by heavy rain closed the main highway and rail line between Anchorage and Fairbanks. Flood water undermined abutments at two bridges on the Parks Highway, and closed the highway from Mile 127, just north of Trapper Creek, to Mile 147, at Byers Lake inside Denali State Park and for two days.  The highway reopened on Tuesday evening, August 22, 2006 to single-lane traffic. Motorists will be guided through the area by a pilot car and should expect delays. Traffic between Anchorage and Fairbanks had been diverted to the Glenn and Richardson highways, adding about 75 miles to the 362 mile trip between the two cities.

One bridge affected by high water crossed Troublesome Creek, a tributary of the Susitna River about 225 road miles south of Fairbanks. Officials in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough reported a 25-foot washout of the bridge. They also reported that the bridge had dropped one foot. The other bridge affected was a crossing of the Chulitna River.

The Alaska Railroad suspended all freight and passenger train traffic between Talkeetna and Denali National Park. The rail lines run roughly parallel to the Parks Highway. A mudslide brought on by the heavy rain washed out 55 feet of railbed track north of Talkeetna.  Temporary repairs effected by Tuesday night allowed reopening of the line.

Chugach Electric discovered that the Susitna River had undercut the foundation beneath one leg of a 70-foot aluminum tower that supports a 230,000-volt transmission line at Dynamite Slough causing it to collapse into the water. The line carries power from the Beluga Power Plant.
Many residents remain evacuees, including families in Houston, Talkeetna and off Wasilla-Fishhook Road.  The American Red Cross of Alaska so far estimates 100 families will need help because of flooding.  Eleven homes were evacuated by boats between Friday and Sunday night. Another 22 people called for help but were able to self-evacuate before rescuers arrived.   A boil water order is in effect for the Ma-Su area.

Hardest hit, according to borough and Red Cross officials:

60 residents in a subdivision along the Talkeetna River around Mercedes Drive; the Little Susitna River in the Schrock Road and Wasilla-Fishhook areas and in Houston, around King Arthur Drive in the No Name Hill/ Pay Dirt Road areas; residents around Oilwell Road in the Trapper Creek area; and residents along Wasilla- and Willow-Fishhook Roads.

Rain returned Tuesday bringing showers in Talkeetna and in nearby mountains.  The National Weather Service issued a flood warning Tuesday afternoon to remain in effect until 10 a.m. Thursday for streams in the Matanuska and Susitna river valleys, particularly streams east of the Parks Highway.  Showers and rain are forecast through Thursday night.

The FEMA State Liaison is at the State EOC working with State staff.  There are considerable local response, recovery and assessment efforts underway. 

Gov. Frank Murkowski has issued a state disaster declaration for the area.  Currently, there is no request for federal assistance.  (FEMA Region X)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
At 5:00 am EDT, August 24, 2006, the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 19.6 north longitude 36.3 west or about 845 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde islands.  Debby is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph and a west-northwest to northwest motion is expected over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts.  Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center. 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). 
 
A strong tropical wave located about 230 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is moving west-northwestward at near 20 mph. This system has continued to become better organized and environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for a Tropical Depression or a Tropical Storm to form today. Interests in the Windward Islands and the southeastern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system as it could produce wind gusts to tropical storm force along with locally heavy rainfall.  An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system  this afternoon.

Elsewhere tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday.

Eastern Pacific:
At 11:00 pm EDT, August 23, 2006, Hurricane Ileana with winds about 105 mph was located at 19.4 north 113.5 or about 320 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula.  Ileana is moving toward the west-northwest at 11 mph.  There is an 18 hour window for Ileana to intensify a bit before moving over cooler waters.  

At 6:00 pm EDT, August 23, 2006, Hurricane Ioke was located at 17.9 north 171.2 west. The storm with sustained winds about 104 mph is moving across open waters and does not currently threaten any U.S. interests. 

Elsewhere tropical storm formation is not expected through Thursday.

Western Pacific:
No tropical storm warnings.  (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity during the last 24 hours. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 5 (on a scale of 1-5)
Wildland fire activity was heavy throughout the nation with 311 new fires reported. Twenty-three new large fires were reported: one each in California, Colorado, Nevada, and Wyoming; six each in Idaho and Oregon; three in Montana; and four in Washington. Eight large fires were contained: one each in Texas and Nevada; two in Oklahoma; and four in Oregon.

Two MAFFS C-130 aircraft and support personnel from the 153 rd Airlift Wing ANG, Cheyenne, WY are deployed to Klamath Falls, OR. Two other MAFFS C-130 aircraft and support personnel from the 146th Airlift Wing ANG, Channel Islands, CA are deployed to Boise, ID.

Weather Discussion: Windy weather and dry thunderstorms will continue over the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, Northern Rockies, Wyoming, and the Dakotas today. Hot weather and thunderstorms are predicted for the mountains and deserts in southern California. A high pressure will build over the western states over the weekend bringing warmer and drier weather along with lighter winds. Hot and dry weather is expected for central Texas during the next few days. (National Interagency Fire Center, Inciweb-incident information system).

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1646-CA will close on August 31, 2006.
FEMA-1653-NJ will close on September 5, 2006.
FEMA-1655-VA will close on September 15, 2006.  (FEMA HQ)