• Emergency Managers and Personnel
• Situation Reports
• National Incident Management System
• Grants & Assistance Programs
• Training
• Contacts
• Planning
• Best Practices

National Situation Update: Wednesday, July 12, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:  Much of the Interior West will be mainly hot and dry. Western sections of Washington and Oregon will be cloudy and cool with scattered showers. High temperatures will range from the 60s in western Washington, northwest Oregon and portions of the higher Rockies to over 110 in the deserts of southeast California and southwest Arizona. East of the Rockies, look for highs in the in the 90s up through eastern Montana.

Northeast:  An upper air disturbance, laden with moisture, will produce more rain over parts of the Northeast. Possible minor flooding along the smaller creeks and streams across parts of northern and central Pennsylvania and southern New York. High temperatures are expected to range from the 70s in much of New England, New York and Pennsylvania to the 90s in eastern Virginia. Rain will spread into New England during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will be on the upswing through the upcoming weekend.

South:  Precipitation across the South will be mainly confined to northern sections of the South and over the Florida Peninsula. Look for scattered thunderstorms from Arkansas to western North Carolina south of a frontal boundary. Deep tropical moisture, accompanied by a small area of low pressure, will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for much of Florida. Possible isolated storms along the central and eastern Gulf Coast and in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Temperatures will be above average for the season with highs in the 80s and 90s. Triple-digit heat will sear much of southern and West Texas as well as southwest Oklahoma.

Saunders Fire (Columbus, MT)

This 3,000 acre lightning-caused wildfire is burning in grass and timber, four miles west of Columbus, MT.  There are 120 primary structures and 240 outbuildings potentially threatened, but no structures have been destroyed.  Two large area subdivisions are threatened and 104 residences have been evacuated.  An evacuation center has been established and the Red Cross is providing assistance.  Adverse weather conditions are hampering containment efforts.  The fire is zero percent contained, and there is no estimated date for full containment.  The State continues to closely coordinate with FEMA Region VIII to monitor the situation and provide updated information.  (FEMA Region VIII)

Sawtooth Complex Fire (Pioneertown, CA)

The Sawtooth Complex Fire, located 50 miles North of Palm Springs, CA in San Bernardino County, has consumed 15,000 acres.  In Pioneertown, six to twelve homes have been destroyed and 600 homes are threatened.  One thousand people have been evacuated and a shelter has been set up at Yucca Valley High School.  Other areas threatened are Yucca Valley, Morongo Valley and Rim Rock.  A total of 1,500 homes and 7500 people are threatened overall with some people trapped and sheltering in place.  There are also 50 businesses threatened.  Fire conditions are extreme, with winds 25 - 40 mph, temperature at 100 degrees and 8% humidity.  Over 700 firefighters are involved, and the California Department of Forestry, Office of Emergency Management, and California Highway Patrol are cooperating in the response.  FEMA Region IX will continue to monitor. (FEMA Region IX)  

NOAA Issues Unscheduled Update to U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

On July 7, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center issued an unscheduled update to its U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook. The main reason for the update is the expansion of drought in the Dakotas. Also, the new outlook highlights short term drought relief in the southwest.

The updated outlook shows recently-worsening drought conditions affecting parts of the northern Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley should continue and may even expand across eastern Montana, Minnesota, the Dakotas and parts of Iowa. In the south, drought is expected to persist over much of the central and southern Plains. However, recent heavy rains due to the onset of the U.S. monsoon season should ease drought conditions and reduce wildfires in the Southwest and Colorado, although long-term drought is likely to continue. (NOAA)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:   As of 1030 pm EDT July 11:  A tropical wave located about 350 miles east of the Windward Islands is moving W to WNW at 15 to 20 mph.  This system has changed little overall, and further development if any should be slow to occur due to unfavorable upper-level winds.  Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Thursday.

Eastern Pacific:   As of 5:00 am EDT this morning:

• The center of Tropical Storm (TS) Carlotta (formerly Tropical Depression 4E ) was located about 330 miles SW of Acapulco, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts, and strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Carlotta is moving toward the WNW near 12 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
  
• On this track the center of TS Carlotta is expected to remain far offshore of Mexico and is not a threat to the US at this time.  However, rains associated with Carlotta could produce life-threatening floods and mud slides in parts of Mexico.
  
• Hurricane Bud continues to move out to sea and is not a threat to any land area at this time.
  

Western Pacific: Nothing significant to report. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

• PDAs due to recent flooding have begun in 7 additional counties of Pennsylvania, and have been completed in Virginia. (FEMA Region III)

Wildfire Update

Wildland fire activity was moderate nationally with 238 new fires reported.

Five new large fires were reported, one each in the Southern California, Northern Rockies, Northwest, Northern California and Eastern Great Basin Area.

Four large fires were contained, three in the Western Great Basin Area, and one in the southern California Area.

Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, California, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota and South Dakota.

Another low pressure trough moving through the Pacific Northwest will bring gusty winds from the Cascades and Sierras across the Great Basin and into Idaho, Wyoming and Montana. Elsewhere, scattered wet thunderstorms are expected across the Four Corners states. (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)