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National Situation Update: Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West: Today's temperatures will be hot through the interior, with isolated afternoon thunderstorms across the Rockies. During the late afternoon and early evening hours the storms should try to roll off the mountains into the valleys. A new cold front will send more showers into coastal sections of the Pacific Northwest late today and tomorrow. Expect cool temperatures along the northern and central coast of California but it will be hot in the central and southern Sacramento Valley. The Desert Southwest will continue to bake.

Northeast:  A cold front is likely to trigger afternoon thunderstorms from Maine to the Middle Atlantic region today. A few thunderstorms may turn severe from Maine to Delaware. Large hail and gusty winds are expected with the stronger storms. Scattered thunderstorms will approach the Pittsburgh area by this evening. Temperatures remain warm with moderately high humidity levels today and tomorrow. Another cold front will slide southward through the region later tomorrow and Thursday, continuing the threat of thunderstorms in the region.

South:  Parts of the South will see thunderstorms today. The most likely area will be from Arkansas to extreme northern Georgia. The rest of the region will see only widely scattered thunderstorms. By later in the week, high pressure aloft will build westward from the Atlantic. This should limit shower and thunderstorm activity to only 20 to 30 percent coverage, which will allow high temperatures to climb into upper 80s and 90s. A few areas in Oklahoma and central Texas could exceed 100 degrees.

Midwest:  Much of the Midwest will pick up some precipitation today. Thunderstorms are likely early in the day around Kansas City and St. Louis, and later in the afternoon in Chicago and Detroit. Severe thunderstorms will be isolated with the main threat from southern Kansas to southern Illinois. High temperatures today should range from the 70s around the Great Lakes to the 90s across the Plains. Temperatures will increase through the week across the Plains and highs may exceed 100 degrees all the way up through the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. The heat will gradually expand eastward as well. (NWS, Media Sources)

FEMA Region Activity

The Joint Field Offices (JFOs) for FEMA-1652-DR (Maryland) and FEMA-1654-DR (Delaware) opened Monday July 10.  (FEMA Region III)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:  As of 10:30 pm EDT Monday July 10, a tropical wave located about 775 miles east of the Windward Islands is moving west-northwestward at about 15 mph. This system has changed little in organization and further development, if any, should be slow to occur. Cloudiness and showers located north of Hispaniola and east of the Bahamas have decreased. There are no signs of a surface circulation, and upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone development to occur. Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Wednesday.
Eastern Pacific: As of 5:00 am EDT today, Tropical Depression (TD) 3E has been designated as Tropical Storm (TS) Bud.  TS Bud is about 700 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California and is moving west-northwest at about 8 mph.  Maximum sustained winds are about 40 mph with gusts to about 50 mph.  At this time, TS Bud is a hazard to shipping only, not to the US or to any land area.
Western Pacific: Nothing significant to report. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Wildland fire activity was moderate nationally with 219 new fires reported.

Four new large fires were reported, three in the southern California Area and one in the Rocky Mountain Area.

Five large fires were contained, three in the Rocky Mountain area and one each in the Northern Rockies and Northern California Areas.

Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, California, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, and South Dakota.

A low pressure trough is expected to move into the Pacific Northwest as high pressure begins to weaken in the West. This will tend to shift the thunderstorm activity of the last few days eastward. California and the Pacific Northwest will also begin to cool off and see higher humidity. (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)