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National Situation Update: Thursday, November 30, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

Midwest:  Cold air has been unlocked from Alaska and Canada and its plunge deep into the nation's heartland, combined with a powerful upper-level storm moving from the Desert Southwest will set the stage for a powerhouse winter storm, bringing the season's first significant snowfall to areas from the central Plains to the Great Lakes.
 
Before the winter storm, there will be a band of heavy rain near and ahead of the cold front from the Great Lakes to the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Rainfall from 1 to 3 inches in some areas is possible through today on the warm side of the front from southern Missouri into southern Lower Michigan.

Lows this morning could bottom out in the 20s below zero in northwest North Dakota. Single-digit lows seem likely from Minnesota to northwest Kansas.

Winter storm warnings stretch from Kansas to Iowa, and winter storm watches cover much of Missouri and Illinois. Ice storm warnings were posted for parts of Missouri, including the Kansas City metro area. Snow will spread into southeast Kansas and western Missouri during the day, becoming heavy at times.

To the immediate east of this heavy snow, a thin band of sleet and/or freezing rain may come down from central Missouri into central and northern Illinois, including Chicagoland during the day. This snowstorm really gets cranked up late tonight into tomorrow, spreading a swath of heavy snow from Missouri into Illinois, northern Indiana and Lower Michigan.

Cities that could see significant snow include St. Louis, Chicago, and possibly Detroit. By late tomorrow into Saturday, the snowstorm looks to sweep out of the Great Lakes, leaving only a small amount of left over lake-effect snow.

South:  Snow, possibly mixed with sleet or freezing rain should spread out of the Southern Rockies into the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma, and north Texas, including, potentially, parts of the Dallas-Ft. Worth metro area. Snow could become heavy this morning over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with significant accumulations possible by evening. Measurable snow in Dallas is rare to begin with, on average, only 1-2 times per year. Since 1898, only 8 Novembers have had measurable snowfall in Dallas. It's possible the far northern Dallas suburbs could see a couple inches of snow by this evening.

Strong thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a few tornadoes are expected from western Kentucky and west Tennessee to the central Gulf Coast. These storms should sweep eastward quickly overnight into the Tennessee Valley.

Tomorrow, the winter storm should be out of the region, with only a trailing band of rain and thunderstorms left over from the Carolinas to north Florida.

Northeast:  The combination of high pressure over the central Atlantic Ocean and a developing Midwest storm will keep the region well-above seasonal averages today.

Clusters of light rain can be expected periodically over mainly the interior Northeast as warm air is drawn northward ahead of the Midwest storm. By evening, a cold front should approach the U.S.-Canadian border, bringing a threat for rain and thunderstorms from northwest Pennsylvania to Upstate New York. Thunderstorms should sweep into northern New England this evening.

The main cold front will swing through the Northeast tomorrow, bringing strong winds, but rain, not snow for the Northeast Urban corridor (Washington to Boston). A burst of heavy snow is possible tomorrow, tracking from western New York and western Pennsylvania during the day into northern New England tomorrow night and early Saturday.

West:  Today, rain and snow could push Seattle into record territory for precipitation in any month. Yesterday, they stood just .07" away from the all-time record set in December, 1933 of 15.33".

Strong Santa Ana winds are expected to persist through at least today as strong high pressure in the Rockies keeps the pressure gradient offshore. Gusts topping 70 mph seem likely in the most wind-prone areas below canyons and passes. Fire danger will remain high.

Another cold morning is expected today, with a freeze possible in Sacramento, Fresno, and Bakersfield, CA. A frost may even occur in parts of the Bay Area, especially in valleys. Freeze warnings have been posted for parts of the Desert Southwest, including Las Vegas and Tucson, which may have their coldest readings of the season.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Hurricane Season Ends Quietly

The mild 2006 Atlantic hurricane season draws to a close today without a single hurricane striking the United States, a stark contrast to the record-breaking 2005 season that killed more than 1,500 people and left thousands homeless along the Gulf Coast.  The 2005 hurricane season was the busiest on record, with 28 named storms, including 15 hurricanes, four of which hit the United States, including Katrina and Rita.

In May, scientists predicted 13 to 16 named storms and eight to 10 hurricanes, with four to six of them major.  Nine named storms and five hurricanes formed this season, and just two of the hurricanes were considered major. That is considered a near-normal season  and well short of the rough season government scientists had forecast.

This year, El Nino developed more quickly than expected in the Pacific, squashing the formation of storms in the Atlantic and creating crosswinds that can rip hurricanes apart. At the same time, upper-level air currents pushed most hurricanes out to sea, away from the U.S. mainland.

Only two storms, Tropical Storms Alberto and Ernesto, hit the U.S. mainland in 2006. Neither caused significant damage.

The season effectively ended with Hurricane Isaac, the last named storm, which dissipated October 2. (Media Sources)

Winter Event in Region 6

Freezing rain will gradually mix with, then change to snow across all of northwest and north central Texas late this morning. Ice accumulations of ¼" to ½" possible early morning across parts of northwest and north Texas…north of an Abilene, Breckenridge, Jacksboro line.

Additional snow may accumulate on top of ice in parts of northwest and north Texas. Snow Accumulations of 2-4" are possible generally north of a Wichita Falls, Bowie, Gainesville line. 1"-3" accumulations are possible generally north of a Morton, Post, Abilene, Corsicana, Paris line.

Temperatures will be much colder today with highs ranging from the 20s in the panhandle and western Oklahoma to the 30s across much of Oklahoma and west and north Texas. Highs will occur early at many of these locations, with temperatures falling through the day.

North to northwest winds of 15 to 30 mph, with higher gusts will cause wind chill readings from around zero in the panhandle to the teens and 20s across central and north TX.

Snow accumulations of 4"-8" are now anticipated across much of central and northern Oklahoma, and extreme northwest Arkansas, generally north of an Elk City, Ardmore, McAlester, Fayetteville line.
Precipitation is expected to change into a freezing rain, sleet, snow mix over northern Arkansas this morning, before turning into snow late in the afternoon. Accumulations of 1" to 4" are possible across much of the northwestern half of the state, except for 4"-8" possible across extreme northwest Arkansas. Isolated higher totals are possible in the Ozark mountains.  (FEMA Region VI, NWS)

FEMA Incident Report CA Earthquakes

A series of earthquakes occurred, November 29, 2006:  a minor (3.8) at 7:17 am EST; a light (4.0) at 4:10 pm EST;  a minor (3.5) at 4:12 pm EST; a minor (3.1) at 4:26 pm EST; and a minor (3.8) at 5:15 pm EST.  All five events were located within 6 miles of Ocotillo (Imperial County) CA. (Southern California) at depths ranging from less than a mile to 2.4 miles. 

A light (4.0) magnitude occurred at 4:20 pm EST 3 miles west from Hollister (San Benito County) CA (Central California - About 416 miles west-northwest of the earlier earthquakes.)

There were no reports of damage or injuries as a result of these earthquakes, and there is no Federal or FEMA involvement anticipated at this time.  FEMA Region IX will continue to monitor the situation.  (FEMA Region IX, USGS Earthquake Hazards Program)

Wilson Lock and Dam Closure, AL

On  November 29, 2006, at 1400 EST, a barge damaged the auxiliary chamber of the Wilson Lock and Dam located on the Tennessee River near Florence, AL.  All navigational traffic at the Wilson Lock and Dam is at a standstill. 

The lock will remain closed until repairs are completed.  An investigation into the cause of the incident is continuing.

The main lock has been closed since August 3, 2006 when a barge became trapped under the upper gate.  Repairs to the main lock are continuing and reopening is scheduled for December 7, 2006.  The main lock can accommodate nine barges concurrently while the auxiliary lock, smaller in size, can accommodate only one barge.  As of Wednesday evening there are nine tow boats in queue waiting to navigate the locks. (NICC)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Friday.

Central and Eastern Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Friday.

Western Pacific:
Tropical Cyclone (TC) 03S does not threaten any U.S. Territories or posessions..  (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

There were five earthquakes near Ocotillo, CA ranging in magnitude from 3.1 to 4.0.  No damage or injuries were reported as a result of these quakes.

There was a light (4.0) earthquake on November 29, 2006 at 4:20 pm EST 3 miles west from Hollister, CA.  There were no damage or injuries reported from this event.  (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Public Assistance PDAs for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania begin today for seven counties resulting from severe Thunderstorms on November 15 - 16, 2006. (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1664-DR-HI is amended effective November 21, 2006 appointing Lee H. Rosenberg as the Federal Coordinating Officer vice Michael L. Karl. (FEMA HQ)