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National Situation Update: Monday, November 27, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Rain and Snow Forecast for the West on Monday

West:
The Pacific coastal areas from Washington southward to central California are likely to see rainfall and some snow on Monday. Heavy snow (up to 12 inches) is forecast for large portions of the mountainous areas of the Northwest.

High temperatures will range from 0s in Montana to the 70s in Arizona. Most of the Northwest will be in the 20s-30s.

Midwest:
A cold air system pushing southward from Canada is expected to bring rain and freezing rain to the area extending from Minnesota and the Great Lakes through Nebraska, Iowa, and Kansas.

Highs will be in the 10s along the Canadian border to the 60s in the Ohio Valley, Missouri, and parts of Kansas.

Northeast:
The Northeast is expected to be mostly dry with highs ranging from the 30s-40s on the Canadian border to the 70s in the Mid-Atlantic area.

South:
Most of region will see dry weather with highs in the 60s-70s. Highs in southern Texas and Florida could reach the 80s.    (National Weather Service, various Media Reports)

Hazards for the Week of November 27 - December 8

A round of severe weather is possible across the South during November 29 through December 1.

A round of strong winds is expected across the western and central states sometime between November 27 and December 1.

A cold snap is expected across the western and central states from November 27 through December 1.

Significant snow and blowing snow is forecast across the Northwest on November 27 and 28.

Significant snow and blowing snow is possible across portions of the central and northern Plains on November 28 and 29.

There is a high risk for wildfires across the southern High Plains November 27 and 28.

There is a high risk for wildfires across southwestern California November 29 through December 1.

Periodic storm force winds are expected across coastal southern Alaska.

Severe drought will persist across portions of the central United States.  (NOAA, National Weather Service)

Hawaii Tests Emergency Alert System for Tsunamis

After a 5.0 magnitude earthquake struck off the northwest coast of Hawaii on Thanksgiving Day, State Civil Defense officials used the Emergency Alert System (EAS) to notify residents that there was no danger of a tsunami.

Some residents had complained previously that State officials had not provided timely tsunami warnings after the earthquakes that struck the islands October 15 causing an estimated $200 million in damages. Although officials knew there was no threat of tsunami after the October quakes, they did not provide public notifications concerning tsunamis until approximately three hours after the events.

After the earthquake on Thanksgiving Day, State officials were able to issue a message 37 minutes after the quake struck to inform the public that no tsunami had been generated. State officials indicated they would ideally like to issue tsunami EAS messages to the public within 5-10 minutes after a quake strikes.  (media sources)

California Levees To Be Tested for Durability

This coming week, the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) and San Francisco-based engineering contractor URS Corporation will test 350 miles of San Joaquin County levees near Lathrop, Stockton and areas north of Sacramento to determine if there is any danger of erosion that could weaken them, causing flooding to nearby structures and placing local residents at risk.

Contractors will take 15 deep-soil samples per mile of levee to find those where sand, gravel and debris have been used for filler and are in danger of eroding as a result.
 
The levee inspection program is funded from the state general fund, thereby saving California counties and local municipalities millions of dollars.

The contractor engineers will look for levees that provide less than 200-year level flood protection to communities of at least 10,000 people. Most of San Joaquin County's levees offer only 100-year flood protection. A 200-year flood is one that has a .5 percent chance of occurring in any given year.

FEMA issued a new policy a week before Hurricane Katrina that required local agencies to verify that their levees can hold back a 100-year flood.

Any substandard levees found by the DWR inspection program will need to be fixed. If the levee owners fail to repair them to the appropriate standard, infrastructure development could be halted in the affected area as a result. Additionally, affected residents could be required to purchase flood insurance. (media sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Tuesday.

Western Pacific:
Tropical Storm Durian (TD-24W), with winds of 52 mph, was located approximately 115 miles northeast of Yap at 10:00 pm EST Sunday November 26. The storm tracked west-northwestward at 13 mph during the previous six hours. The storm does not pose any threat to U.S. interests. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

There were no significant earthquakes affecting the U.S. or U.S interests during the past 24 hours.  (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Wildland fire activity for the week ending November 24 was light with 119 fires reported. Eleven new large fires were reported. Seven large fires were contained (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)