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National Situation Update: Monday, November 20, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Hazards for the Week

For the period November 20-23 heavy rain and river flooding are likely for the Pacific Northwest and northwestern California.

From Nov 20-23, coastal gales are possible for the Pacific Northwest and northwestern California.

From Nov 21-24, the Southeast coast could experience gusty winds and some beach erosion with periods of heavy rain possible across immediate coastal areas.

Below normal temperatures will continue for central and eastern Alaska.

Severe drought is expected to continue across the northern Plains - upper Mississippi Valley - northern Arizona - southwest Missouri - Oklahoma - southwest Arkansas and a large part of Texas.  (NOAA/National Weather Service)

Cold Weather Moving into the Southeast

South:
Cold temperatures and gusty winds are expected to dominate the Southeast on Monday with night time temperatures in the 20s-30s. Daytime highs in the 40s-50s are expected in the areas of the Carolinas, Georgia, and Central Florida.

West:
A new storm system is expected to move through Washington and Oregon bringing some rain and high winds to Idaho and Montana.

On Monday, the Southwest, including southern California, will continue to experience dry and sunny weather with high temperatures in the 80s.

Midwest:
Most of the region will be dry with moderate temperatures. Highs will range from the 30s in the Great Lakes area to the 60s in Nebraska and Kansas. Rain and snow are forecast for eastern Tennessee and western Carolinas.

Northeast:
High temperatures will range from the 30s in New England to the 50s in the Mid-Atlantic region.  (National Weather Service, various Media Reports)

Ten Most Hurricane Vulnerable Areas in the U.S.

Public safety officials in the Atlantic and Gulf Coast states are breathing a sigh of relief as the 2006 Hurricane Season comes to an end on November 30. However, a sobering study prepared by Dr. Stephen P. Leatherman, director of the International Hurricane Research Center (IHRC) at Florida International University in Miami, indicates the entire East and Gulf Coasts are subject to hurricane impacts in future seasons with some areas much more vulnerable than others.

The IHRC has released the 10 Most Vulnerable U.S. Mainland Areas to Hurricanes. The areas are ranked are as follows:

 1. New Orleans, Louisiana
 2. Lake Okeechobee, Florida
 3. Florida Keys
 4. Coastal Mississippi
 5. Miami/Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
 6. Galveston/Houston, Texas
 7. Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
 8. Eastern Long Island, New York
 9. Wilmington, North Carolina
 10. Tampa/St. Petersburg, Florida

Unfortunately for New Orleans, the city was ranked number 1 on the list that no area wants to lead. The researchers indicate that the threat of breached levees in the below-sea level city continues to be as risky as it was in 2005 when Katrina flooded 80 percent of the city.

Number 2 on the list is an area adjacent to Lake Okeechobee, Florida where the 140-mile long Hoover Dike is also dependent on levees for protection from flooding. The second worst hurricane disaster for life loss in U.S. history occurred in this area in 1928. Currently more than 40,000 people live at the base of the Hoover Dike, a giant earthen structure that is reportedly leaking and possibly poses a grave and imminent danger to the people in the area according to two recent studies.
 
The State of Florida leads the list with four out of the ten most vulnerable areas.

Number 4 on the list, Coastal Mississippi, was devastated by Katrina's high storm surge in 2005. Hurricane Camille in 1969 did a similar amount of damage, but with a far greater loss of life. 

The IHRC developed twelve criteria that were used to evaluate the vulnerability of U.S. mainland areas to hurricanes. The primary vulnerability criteria included cyclonic energy (hurricane frequency and storm intensity) and levee/dike failure. Physical factors included storm surge, freshwater flooding potential, coastal erosion trends, and island breaching history. Socioeconomic indicators included populations at risk, evacuation distance and routes, infrastructure at risk, and local/state capabilities to respond to major hurricane impacts.  (International Hurricane Research Center www.ihrc.fiu.edu, media sources)

40 MPH Flames Killed Esperanza Firefighters

A six-page report recently released by the California Department of Forestry indicated that four California firefighters were killed last month by a terrifying wildfire that was racing at 40 miles per hour across extremely dry material with flames reaching 90 feet high.

The report listed three main variables that contributed heavily to the fire's danger: high winds, slope of the terrain, and extremely dry, flammable ground cover. Temperatures at the front edge of the fire were estimated to reach 1,220 degrees, and smoke and gases from the fire rose 18,000 feet into the air.

The fire, believed to be the result of arson, destroyed 34 homes and an area covering 60 square miles.

The report provides details that describe the firefighters' actions prior to becoming trapped by the fast-moving fire. An internal investigation and a criminal investigation of the arson charges are continuing.  (media sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Pacific:
At 1:00 am EST Monday, Tropical Depression Sergio was located about 325 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Sergio is expected to dissipate within the next 36 hours. Based on the current warning Sergio poses no threat to the United States. Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Tuesday.

Western Pacific:
No new activity to report. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Oregon:  Public Assistance PDAs are scheduled to begin the week of November 27, 2006.

Washington:  Individual Assistance PDAs for six counties began on November 15, 2006. The state may request additional counties at a later date. Public Assistance PDAs are scheduled to begin the week of November 27, 2006. (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Light wildland fire activity was reported for the week of November 17 with 241 new fires reported in the U.S. Two new large fires were reported in California and Texas. Two large fires were contained in California and Kentucky.

Windy and dry weather with low humidity is forecast for southern California on Sunday. Dry weather and low humidity is also expected on Sunday in northern and central Florida. (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)