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National Situation Update: Sunday, November 12, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West
Late today and into Monday another storm system takes aim on the West Coast. Unlike last Sunday and  Monday's flood event in western Washington, this latest storm should hit much of western Oregon and far northern California hard with locally heavy rainfall, high winds at the usual coastal headlands and high terrain, as well as mountain snow. Snow levels are expected to rise to between 5500 and 6000 feet in the Oregon Cascades, but remain steady around 3000 feet in the Washington Cascades tonight as the storm heads ashore. Additional foot-plus snowfalls are expected. High wind watches are posted for much of western Oregon and southwest Washington in advance of this potent system.

Northeast
Rain now soaking the Appalachians will move into the East Coast. Low pressure will consolidate in the Virginia Tidewater region, becoming a slow-moving coastal crawler up the  Northeast Seaboard through at least Tuesday. As a result, rain will soak a large area from Virginia to Maine. This low is expected to wrap deep moisture into a stalled frontal boundary from New England to Chesapeake Bay.

To the north of the low center, an area of moderate to heavy rainfall may set up from the Delmarva Peninsula to Long Island. Rainfall associated with this heavier band could easily exceed a couple of inches, locally. This is of particular concern in the "Tri-State" area around New York City, where from 1 to 4 inches of rain fell on Thursday triggering local flooding. As of midday Saturday, the Passaic River at Pine Brook, N.J. was still above flood stage. Flood watches have been posted for today & Monday from northeast Maryland and northern Delaware to the Hudson Valley north of New York City, including much of New Jersey and Philadelphia.

Stubborn clouds and patchy light rain will dog the Northeast's interior, from northern New England to the central Appalachians however only the very highest peaks are likely to see any wet snow from this storm system.

South
Generally tranquil weather will round out the weekend in the South, with the exception of an area of low pressure pin wheeling through the Southern Appalachians and sliding off the Tidewater of Virginia late today. Ahead of this potent system, a band of rain and even thunderstorms may sweep quickly through eastern North Carolina early today. Some wet snow may fall at the highest elevations of the Smokies. Light rain showers should hang over northeast sections of the Tar Heel State, including the Outer Banks.

The Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, and Florida Peninsula will enjoy a quiet Sunday

Midwest
A weak, moisture-starved frontal system will emerge into the Plains, spreading mainly rain showers from Nebraska into the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. Tonight, some of that rain should turn to light snow from northeast Minnesota into northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, putting a fresh cover of snow on Friday's accumulations.

Washington and Oregon Flooding Update

• State officials anticipate joint PDAs in affected counties will begin this week.
  
• All flood warnings have been cancelled for Washington and Oregon.
  
• Flooding at the Cowlitz River washed away three homes and damaged dozens more south of Mount Rainier in Randle and Packwood. Volunteers have supplied hard-hit residents with drinking water, cleaning supplies, clothes, food and other items.
  
• Scores of homes were damaged and washed out roads, campgrounds, power and sewer systems forced Mount Rainier National Park officials to
  
• close the park to visitors for the first time in 26 years.
  
• Flooding waters from Preston's Raging River undermined the bridge support on Preston's only road in and out of town.  Giant boulders were hauled in to stabilize the bridge and the riverbank, but crews say they need two more weeks to finish bridge repairs. They're looking for alternative routes for residents, but so far can't find any. About 200 people live in Upper Preston near Issaquah, Washington.
  
• Planned water releases from dams on the Cowlitz and White Rivers increased stream flows. The Cowlitz flooding affected Lewis County while the White River affected King and Pierce counties.
  
• Farther south, residents in Vader and Toutle were told to boil drinking water as a precaution after the storm.
  
• A new storm, expected Sunday night, won't be as dramatic as the past week's heavy rains. Forecasters said there was little chance of a return to the major flooding of early in the week. Coastal areas of Oregon may experience winds in excess of 70 mph. (FEMA Region X, Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FMAG 2679 was approved for Pinehaven Fire in Washoe County, Reno, Nevada at 2:48 pm EST on November 11, 2006. The fire was caused by sparking from power lines during high wind conditions. It has consumed 300 acres and is threatening at least 600 homes and one elementary school. Voluntary evacuations are currently underway. There are 15 type three fire trucks and eight type-2 trucks being used and four crews of 80 people. The fire is 20% contained.  (FEMA HQ, FOC)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Monday.

Central and Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Depression 20 E, located approximately 600 miles south-southwest of the tip of the Baja Peninsula, Mexico is swiftly dissipating but will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration by the  Joint Typhoon Warning Center (NAVPACMETOCCEN). Elsewhere, Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Monday.

Western Pacific:
Typhoon Chebi has passed over the Philippines, is dissipating as it travels west-southwestward over water, and poses no threat to US territories. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A light earthquake (magnitude 4.6) was reported at 9:00 am EST yesterday off the coast of the Alaskan Peninsula, 73 miles south-southeast from King Cove, Alaska. Depth was 9.3 miles. There were no reports of tsunami danger, damage, or injuries.

A moderate earthquake (magnitude 5.0) occurred in the Mariana Islands Region, 150 miles northwest of Farallon de Pajaros, North Marana Islands, at 10:41 am EST yesterday. Depth was 25.8 miles. No tsunami warnings were generated, no report of damage or injuries.

A moderate earthquake (magnitude 5.9) occurred at 10:31 am EST yesterday 58 miles West-northwest of Kandrian, New Britain, Papua New Guinea. No Destructive Pacific-wide tsunami threat is reported. Generation of local tsunamis along coasts located within 100 miles of the earthquake epicenter is possible.  (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific and Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)