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National Situation Update: Saturday, November 11, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

Midwest:
A vigorous storm system produced heavy snow and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Midwest on Friday.

A band of heavy snow (from 10 to 16 inches) blanketed areas from southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa up through northern Wisconsin. Rochester, Minnesota picked up over 10 inches of snow. Snow will continue to wind down overnight but several inches may fall over parts of northern Michigan. Lightning and thunder may accompany the snow.

Saturday will feature rain and snow showers, with no accumulation, from northern Illinois through Michigan.

Light rain and snow showers will break out from parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota to northwest Kansas.

West:
More precipitation fell across parts of the Pacific Northwest, however the latest storm only produced modest rainfall amounts over the area. Snowfall in the Cascades exceeded a foot in some locations.

Saturday will feature showers across the Northwest but another, more powerful storm, is likely to affect the area on Sunday night and Monday. This one looks to produce more precipitation and could feature damaging winds around the coast.

On Saturday, showers are forecast in California around cities like San Francisco and Sacramento. Heavy mountain snow will fall across Idaho, western Montana, northern Nevada, northern Utah, western Wyoming and northwest Colorado.

Meanwhile, the southwest will remain dry and mild through the weekend.

Northeast:
The storm across the Midwest will shift eastward on Saturday and will affect parts of the Northeast, mainly from the Appalachians westward.

Rain will fall from the eastern Great Lakes down through parts of West Virginia and western Virginia.
Coastal areas will be mostly dry with mild temperatures.

South:
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the Southeast in cities like Birmingham, Atlanta and Charlotte .(National Weather Service, various Media Reports)

Pacific Northwest Flooding Update

Washington State has requested that joint PDAs with FEMA and State personnel be conducted for Human Services beginning November 15, 2006

River warnings still in effect in Western Washington have decreased to 4.  Minor but fluctuating flooding continues on the Cedar River near Renton (King Co) and releases from Mud Mountain Dam will keep the White River near Buckley (Pierce Co) near flood stage through Saturday.  Although rain continues in Washington State, NWS forecasters are predicting little chance of renewed flooding largely because so much of the precipitation is falling in the mountains as snow. 

Flash flood watch in northwest Oregon, primarily in the northern Cascade foothills.  Some concern in Clackamas County, Oregon for logjams on the Sandy River. If they break loose, they could cause flooding downstream.

Of more concern is a NWS report that computer models are coming into agreement on the possibility of a significant wind event for southwest WA and northwest OR late Sunday and Sunday night, producing very strong and damaging winds along the coast and over the coastal mountains and possibly the Cascades.  Winds could also gust to at least 60 mph in the inland valleys, which could produce significant property damage.  Damage could be exacerbated by the very wet soils from the persistent rainfall and flooding of the past several days.

A significant number of State and county highways/roads continue to remain closed or damaged in Washington and Oregon due to flooding, and/or mud/rock slides. In Oregon, a state highway on the east side of Mount Hood washed out, and officials said it could take $20 million to repair.

Tribal Impacts:  Damage assessments will continue as rivers recede in tribal lands impacted by the floods.
Damage assessments continue by the Corps of Engineers on the impacted levee systems.
At this time, there has been no request for FEMA assistance. . (Region X, NICC)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Sunday.

Central and Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Depression Rosa, located south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is dissipating. This is the last forecast/advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system 

Western Pacific:
Typhoon Chebi is tracking westward, and poses no threat to US territories. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A series of three minor earthquakes (magnitudes 3.2 - 3.4) were reported 45 miles NNW of Charlotte Amalie, US Virgin Islands. Depth was 15 miles. There were no reports of damage or injuries. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center,)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)