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National Situation Update: Monday, November 6, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Hazards for the Week

• From Nov 6 - 10, periods of heavy rain are likely for the Pacific Northwest; heavy snow will fall at the highest elevations.
  
• From Nov 6 - 10, periods of coastal gales are likely from the Alaskan Panhandle into the Pacific Northwest
  
• Dry fuels and Santa Ana winds in southern California will likely maintain a high wildfire danger from Nov 6-7 and probably again Nov 9-11.
  
• From Nov 9 - 10, heavy snow is possible across the central Rockies and adjacent high Plains.
  
• From Nov 6 - 8, heavy rain is possible for the western Gulf Coast.
  
• Severe drought continues across the northern Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, northern Arizona, southwest Missouri, Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and a large part of Texas, but some improvement is possible across the southern Plains.
  

Northwest Braces for More Rain, Flooding

West:
The Pacific Northwest is forecast to receive more heavy rains and strong winds through Tuesday.  Flood watches have been issued for areas of major flooding across western Washington and northwest Oregon. The region has received from 2 to10 inches of rain since this past Thursday and is forecast to receive an additional 2 to10 inches by Tuesday evening. Rivers are running high and are expected to surpass flood levels with this new storm moving in today. Sustained winds of 30 to 45 mph and gusts in excess of 60 mph are forecast along coastal areas.

Elsewhere, central and southern areas of the West should experience a mostly sunny and mild day. Snow levels are expected to be higher, near the 10,000 foot level by tonight.

Gusty winds are forecast across Southern California as Santa Ana winds with gusts from 30 to 40 mph through the mountains and canyons, increasing fire danger levels.
 
South:
Moisture flowing northward out of the Gulf of Mexico and southeast out of the Pacific Northwest has produced locally heavy rainfall from Louisiana to north-central Arkansas. Temperatures are expected to be warm across the region, but should remain below average from northern Georgia northeast to the western Carolinas.
 
Midwest:
Rainfall amounts should be very light in the northern Midwest as the system moves across the region quickly through Tuesday. The cold air is expected to remain far north into Canada through the end of the week.

Northeast:
The skies over the Northeast will be clear with cold nights and mild afternoons. Some light rain shower activities with cooler temperatures forecasted for some areas of the Northeast through Tuesday.

Biggest Storm yet Brings Potential for Major Flooding in Northwest Oregon and Western Washington

A flood watch is in effect for all mountain-fed rivers in Western Washington. The Skokomish River already went a little over flood stage with the past two storms' rain and was expected to briefly recede below flood stage Sunday, but then flood again Sunday night. The Skagit River also briefly hit flood stage, and the Snoqualmie got close. Those rivers are primed for significant flooding in the coming days. In the North Oregon Cascades, coastal rivers and Johnson Creek are expected to flood Monday while the slower responding rivers are expected to flood by Monday night.

The National Weather Service says the Skagit River near Concrete could rise to 10 feet over flood stage if current forecast models pan out. It also means this entire event could be on par with some of the biggest flooding events in the past 15-20 years -- maybe even approaching the historic November 1990 floods. So those who live in flood plains need to take precautions now with respect to river flooding.

But it's not just the mountain rivers that are presenting problems. Urban streams and rivers also have the potential to flood, and with the past two storms doing a good job of knocking off most of the autumn leaves that were still left on the trees, those leaves could clog storm drains and make for local pools of water that you wouldn't normally anticipate.

Hawaii Recovery Update

Twenty-two days after a 6.7-magnitude earthquake hit the Hawaii Islands, response and recovery efforts continue. A small group of people, approximately 200 households (500 individuals), remain isolated on Maui due to road and bridge closures.

The Paihi Bridge on Maui, damaged by the quake, undergoes repair and temporary bridge construction beginning today, 6 November. Hawaii National Guard (HING) equipment and personnel will transport bridge components, as well as re-supply the isolated community with water, food, and hygiene supplies.

On 3 November over 17,000 lbs of cargo was delivered by HING. The next re-supply mission is Tuesday, with 2 missions scheduled per week. The repairs will take between 30 and 45 days. A major disaster was declared for Hawaii on October 17, 2006.(FEMA Region IX, Army National Guard, Media Sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Pacific:
No new significant activity to report.
 
Western Pacific:
No new significant activity to report. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)