Overview
The agricultural baseline database provides longrun, 10-year projections
from USDA's annual baseline report, which is published in February
each year. The database covers projections
for major field crops (corn, sorghum, barley, oats, wheat, rice,
soybeans, and upland cotton) and livestock (beef, pork, poultry
and eggs, and dairy) starting with the February 2000 report.
Feature
Agricultural Baseline Projections
Briefing Room—Presents highlights of assumptions
and results from the most recent baseline report, as well
as links to related
baseline projections information.
Questions and Answers
Question: What time periods do baseline projections cover?
Answer: Each baseline has projections for 10 years and includes
2 years of history. For example, data from the February 2006
USDA
baseline include estimated historical observations and short-term
projections for 2004 and 2005 from the November 2005 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, followed
by 10 years of long-term projections for 2006 through 2015.
Question: What assumptions underlie the baseline projections?
Answer: Baseline projections are based on specific assumptions
regarding macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international
developments. Normal weather is assumed. Further, the baseline assumes
that there are no shocks to other factors affecting global agricultural
supply and demand. The projections assume current agricultural legislation
remains in effect throughout the baseline.
Data Files
Search the baseline
database interactively—View, graph, and/or download baseline
database variables for major field crops and livestock.
Type of Data and Component Software
Interactive baseline data can be saved as a comma delimited output
file, tab delimited output file, or an HTML output file.
All baseline data are available in Lotus spreadsheets
(wk1 format).
Release Date
The database is updated in conjunction with USDA's annual agricultural
baseline report, which is released in February each year.
Printed Versions of Agricultural Baseline Data
Longrun projections data for the most recent baseline also may be
accessed electronically through the USDA
Baseline Publication in pdf format or in Microsoft Word format.
Longrun projections data in Previous
Baseline Publications are also available.
Related Data Products
Additional baseline projections information for other data are available
in Lotus
spreadsheets (wk1 format). These include data for macroeconomic
and farm policy assumptions, as well as projections for specialty
crops, farm income, food prices, and global agricultural trade.
International Baseline
Projections
for major crops for selected countries are available in Excel spreadsheets
(xls format).
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