EL NIÑO EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE CENTRAL U.S. WINTER WEATHER

El Niño will have a visible influence on U.S. weather patterns into early 2003, including the nation’s Midwest region, the head of NOAA’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said today at a climate workshop in Kansas City, Mo. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce.

States in the High Plains and central U. S. region are expected to experience a warmer-than-normal winter, and in some areas, conditions will be drier than normal. But Jim Laver, CPC director, said the region should still anticipate typical winter cold spells and damaging storms.

“There will still be plenty of winter throughout the central U.S.,” Laver told a group of Kansas City-area emergency managers, private weather forecasters, television meteorologists and local officials at a climate workshop. He said the 2002-03 El Niño is at moderate strength, and weaker than the powerful 1997-98 version, but impacts are still likely.

Dennis McCarthy, director of the 14-state Central Region of the National Weather Service, said, “The impact of a moderate El Niño on our winter precipitation is not straightforward. Although there is a tendency for precipitation to average below normal in parts of the region, that doesn’t mean we won’t see significant storms with heavy rain and snowfall that cause major problems.”

Overall, from December 2002, to April 2003, forecasters expect the United States to experience:

Drier-than-average conditions in some sections of the United States, including the Ohio River Valley and the northern Rockies.

• Warmer-than-average conditions in the northern tier of states.
• Wetter-than-average conditions in the southern tier of states.
• Increased storminess along the East Coast.