NOAA 97-R225

CONTACT:  Frank Lepore,  NHC                   FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
          Jeanne Kouhestani,  NOAA Corps       May 29, 1997  
          Lt. Jeff Hagan,  AOC

1997 Hurricane Season Begins;
NOAA's New Hurricane Jet Expected to Improve Hurricane Forecasts

Senior officials from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration marked the beginning of the 1997 hurricane season today by introducing the newest high-tech tool in the hurricane forecasting arsenal of the National Weather Service - a high-altitude Gulfstream-IV jet that is expected to improve landfall and intensity forecasts by up to 20 percent.

The specially equipped jet - the first of its kind in the world -- was unveiled at NOAA's annual hurricane season kick-off press conference, held this year at NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Fla. It will begin hurricane surveillance operations during this year's season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

"The Secretary of Commerce and NOAA have made a commitment to create the best weather service in the world through modernization - an effort that has already resulted in significant improvements in public service and hurricane safety preparedness," said D. James Baker, undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "With NOAA's G-IV jet -- the newest element in weather service modernization -- NOAA forecasters will for the first time have atmospheric data at high altitudes where steering currents direct the motion of hurricanes."

"Data from the G-IV jet will supplement the low- and mid-altitude data collected by `hurricane hunter' aircraft that penetrate hurricanes, giving us a complete picture of the atmosphere in, over, and around a developing hurricane," said Elbert (Joe) Friday Jr., NOAA's assistant administrator for weather services.

"In Florida and the Gulf and Atlantic coastal states, the use of new hurricane prediction models by the National Hurricane Center that include `hurricane hunter' research data have reduced the errors in 24-hour landfall forecasts by more than 25 miles in the past three years alone," Friday said. "For every mile we don't have to `overwarn' and evacuate, we save as much as $1 million. We expect the new G-IV jet to improve this forecasting accuracy even more."

According to Jerry Jarrell, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center, increasing coastal populations have put more people at risk during hurricanes, and that barrier islands are especially vulnerable to rapidly rising waters known as storm surge. It is difficult to evacuate people from these areas because roadways have not kept pace with population growth.

"Tools such as the new G-IV jet that help forecasters predict the track of hurricanes will help coastal residents prepare for hurricanes, but these tools are only part of the equation," Jarrell warned. "No matter how vital technology, emergency management procedures and disaster assistance are before, during and after the storm, people should remember that they are ultimately responsible for preparing for their own safety and protecting their own property. This is a message that must not be lost in the wave of new technology."

The G-IV jet will be housed with NOAA's P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft at the Aircraft Operations Center and flown by pilots of the NOAA Corps, the agency's commissioned service. AOC is managed by the Office of NOAA Corps Operations. AOC engineers are responsible for maintaining and designing modifications for NOAA's aircraft.