Contact: Stephanie Kenitzer FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
(301) 713-0622 10/25/95
Early signs indicate that winter 1995-1996 will not be influenced by El Nino conditions, suggesting that this coming winter could bring drier and cooler weather across portions of the United States than we have experienced in the past several years, according to an advisory by the Commerce Department's National Weather Service.
Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are cooler than normal and are expected to remain slightly cooler or near normal for the next three to six months, according the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in Camp Springs, Md. El Nino conditions are characterized by an abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean that impacts weather patterns around the world.
Last winter, the extreme warmth over eastern North America and the heavy precipitation in California were linked to an overall atmospheric pattern that accompanied El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific. More than 250 record high temperatures were established across the northern and eastern sections of the United States during the November 1994-January 1995 time period.
"Atmospheric and oceanic patterns currently indicate near- normal or slightly cooler than normal sea surface temperatures remaining in the Pacific region in the late fall and early winter," said Vern Kousky, a research meteorologist with the CPC. "Present forecasts do not indicate that the temperatures will turn any colder."
However, if a full-fledged cold episode does develop during the next few months, one can expect temperature and precipitation patterns that are nearly opposite to those observed during a warm ENSO episode, added Kousky. This would include wetter than normal conditions over Indonesia, northeast Brazil and southeastern Africa, drier than normal over the central Pacific, United States Gulf Coast, west coast of South America and central South America. Colder than normal temperatures over western Canada and the northern contiguous United States and warmer than normal over portions of the Gulf Coast and southeast United States would also be expected.
The Climate Prediction Center closely monitors, analyzes and predicts climate conditions and trends, including tropical conditions in the Pacific.
The ENSO Advisory is available through the Internet on the Climate Prediction Center's World Wide Web Home Page, http://nic.fb4.noaa.gov/.
###Editors Note: For a hard copy of the report, contact the NWS Public Affairs Office at (301) 713-0622 or the Climate Prediction Center at (301) 763-8227.