Contact:   Caroline Isber                      FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
           (301) 427-2089                      10/19/95 
           Matt Stout
           (202) 482-6090

U.S. TO HOST INTERNATIONAL MEETING ON EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION

Hurricanes, floods, heat waves and droughts ... can scientists predict these events years in advance and in turn prepare the public? Yes. Recent scientific achievements in forecasting climate related to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) allow researchers to forecast these events in advance.

To discuss issues relating to the effects of ENSO research, the United States is hosting a ministerial-level international meeting, Nov. 6-8 in Washington, D.C. In addition to the science, the forum will address how these advances in forecasting benefit society.

ENSO conditions are characterized by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the tropical central and eastern Pacific. The ENSO climate phenomenon has great significance to society and ecosystems, second only to the annual seasonal cycle in its influence on regional climate systems around the world.

Representatives from more than 40 countries, including members of government and scientific and international organizations, are expected to attend "The International Forum on Forecasting El Nino: Launching an International Research Institute," to be held at the J.W. Marriott Hotel in Washington, D.C.

The forum will be chaired by D. James Baker, under secretary of Commerce for oceans and atmosphere, and hosted by John H. Gibbons, assistant to President Clinton for science and technology.

"The overall goal of the forum is to develop an international initiative to improve and share climate research capabilities and forecast techniques and learn to apply them to social and economic growth," said Baker.

Specific issues to be discussed at the forum include:

* The ENSO phenomenon and what effects it has around the globe;

* How ENSO affects our society, how we can adapt to climate         
variability;

* Recent advances in forecasting year-to-year climate variations;
  and

* Looking at how we can integrate skillful forecast information     
into decision-making processes for everything from agriculture    
to utilities.

Seasonal climate patterns in many regions of the globe are determined in great part by the naturally-occurring interplay between the ocean and the atmosphere driven by the ENSO phenomenon. Due to enhanced satellite and other observational activities, improved understanding of the physics of the climate system, and enhanced computer-based numerical climate forecasting, scientists have made great strides in predicting what the climate system has in store for next year and in some cases next year.

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