CONTACT: Patricia Viets FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
(301) 457-5005 5/25/95
Thomas Karl
(704) 271-4319
Scientists at the world's largest climate center have developed two new tools that would make it easier to study climate change in the United States.
"Because climate change can have a tremendous impact on the nation's economy, it is important for scientists to monitor, understand and predict it," said Thomas R. Karl, senior scientist at the Commerce Department's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.
Karl and a team of climatologists have developed two indices called the U.S. Greenhouse Climate Index and the U.S. Climate Extremes Index. The team combined data on summer droughts, wet winters, drenching rainstorms and other weather extremes in the United States to develop the indices, which are convenient guides to the state of the U.S. climate.
The scientists used the indices to track the climate over an 80-year period. They determined that both indices have been high since the late 1970s. The U.S. Greenhouse Climate Index suggests that the climate of the United States may, indeed, be responding to increases in greenhouse gases.
"It is likely that the increase is due to man-made factors, rather than to natural climate variability," Karl said. "Careful monitoring for the next decade or two will be extremely important in assessing the significance of this climate change and its probable course over the next several decades."
The Climate Extremes Index has been high since the mid- 1970s. This supports the notion that the climate of the nation has become more extreme in recent decades. However, the index is not high enough or persistent enough to conclude that the frequency of extremes in the climate will not return to a normal state.
Manufacturers determine the impact of climate on product sales and develop marketing strategies based on the data. Public utilities use the data to determine levels of energy demand, compute rate adjustments and research alternative energy sources. The transportation industry uses the data to determine favorable air, sea and land routes for transport of goods and commodities.
The National Climatic Data Center responds to more than 300,000 contacts for climate information each year to help solve everyday problems. Requests come to the center in the form of letters, faxes, phone calls, personal visits and electronically through the information superhighway.
Karl and his colleagues have published the results of their research in the premier Spring 1995 issue of Consequences magazine. In addition to Karl, the team consists of Robert Quayle, chief of the Global Climate Laboratory, and David Easterling and Richard Knight, both staff meteorologists at the National Climatic Data Center. NCDC is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Environmental Satellite Data, and Information Service. NOAA is a Department of Commerce agency.
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Note to Editors: Thomas Karl will be presenting the results of this work to a group of insurance company executives on May 31, 1995, in Washington, D.C. To interview Karl or a member of the research team, call Patricia Viets at 301-457-5005 or NCDC at (704) 271-4319.