NOAA/NASA ANNOUNCE MAJOR WEATHER FORECASTING ADVANCEMENT

NOAA and NASA today outlined research that has helped to improve the accuracy of medium-range weather forecasts in the Northern Hemisphere. NOAA is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

NOAA and NASA scientists at the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation in Camp Springs, Md., came up with procedures to improve forecasting accuracy. The scientists worked with experimental data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite. They found incorporating AIRS data into numerical weather prediction models improves the accuracy range of experimental six-day Northern Hemisphere weather forecasts by up to six hours, a four percent increase. AIRS is a high-spectral resolution infrared instrument that takes 3-D pictures of atmospheric temperatures, water vapor and trace gases. The instrument data have officially been incorporated into NOAA’s National Weather Service’s operational weather forecasts.

“This AIRS instrument has provided the most significant increase in forecast improvement in this time range of any other single instrument,” said retired Navy Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

“NASA is assisting the world’s weather prediction agencies by providing very detailed, accurate observations of key atmospheric variables that interact to shape our weather and climate,” said Dr. Mary Cleave, associate administrator for NASA's Science Mission Directorate. “The forecast improvement accomplishment alone makes the AIRS project well worth the American taxpayers’ investment.”

“Climate and weather forecasts are dependent upon our understanding current global ocean and atmosphere conditions. If we want to be able to predict what the weather will be like in the future, we must adequately define the global conditions today. Satellite data, like AIRS provides, is a vital link for NOAA to take the pulse of the planet continuously,” added Lautenbacher.

“A four percent increase in forecast accuracy at five or six days normally takes several years to achieve,” said JSCDA Director, Dr. John LeMarshall. “This is a major advancement, and it is only the start of what we may see as much more data from this instrument is incorporated into operational forecast models at the NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.”

The European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts began incorporating data from AIRS into their operational forecasts in October 2003. The center reported an improvement in forecast accuracy of eight hours in Southern Hemisphere five-day forecasts.

AIRS is the result of more than 30 years of atmospheric research and is led by Dr. Moustafa Chahine of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. AIRS was launched May 4, 2002. It is the first in a series of advanced infrared sounders that will provide accurate, detailed atmospheric temperature and moisture observations for weather and climate applications.

The JCSDA is operated by NOAA, NASA, the U.S. Air Force and Navy. The goals of the center are to accelerate the use of observations from Earth-orbiting satellites to improve weather and climate forecasts, and to increase the accuracy of climate data sets.

NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department and is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of our nation’s coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners and nearly 60 countries to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes.

On the Web:

AIRS (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder): http://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/

NOAA: http://ww.noaa.gov

NASA: http://www.nasa.gov/home/index.html