Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
000 FXUS65 KPUB 071033 AFDPUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 433 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2009 .SHORT TERM... (TODAY AND TONIGHT) NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVR THE AREA THRU THE PERIOD. H7 TEMPS TODAY WL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND THUS WL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS AROUND YESTERDAYS READINGS...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S SE PLAINS...UPR 70S HIGH VALLEYS. WITH NOT MUCH MSTR OVR THE AREA TODAY AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT WL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. A WEAK FRONT ENTERS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WL BE MILD AGAIN. .LONG TERM... (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT SENDS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OWNING TO TEMPS SOME 10-15F COOLER THAN THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH ONLY SLIGHT COOLING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HIGH VALLEYS. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS RUNS WERE INDICATING A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH SFC BASED CAPES BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG AND LIS BETWEEN -2C AND -6C WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN PLACE BEHIND COLD FRONT. THE 06Z RUNS HOWEVER ARE INDICATING FRONT A TAD FASTER WITH A MORE STABLE AIR AT THE SFC THOUGH CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...WITH STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND WITH STRONG BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50KTS ACROSS THE AREA...STORMS THAT CAN MAKE OUT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EXPECTING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE CONTINUES. COULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WAA AND UVV AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND PASSING WAVE. OUT WEST...MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARMER AND DRIER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO SEND ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SOME QUESTIONS ON TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST ALONG WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. -MW && .AVIATION... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AT KCOS AND KALS THIS AFTERNOON. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 28/23
