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Table 8: Annual Percentage Errors (APE), Forecasted Annual Growth Rates (FGR), Observed Annual Growth Rates (OGR) of h = 1-, 6-, 12-, and 24-Steps-Ahead Forecasts for Metro, Bus Tickets, and Travel Cards for Alternative Models
Forecasting Period: 2000-2002
Excel | CSV
2000, h = 1 |
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APE |
-0.87 |
-0.17 |
0.3 |
1.82 |
-2.77 |
-0.30 |
-1.32 |
-1.63 |
-0.04 |
-1.43 |
-0.43 |
2.28 |
FGR |
12.22 |
13.01 |
5.96 |
7.57 |
0.87 |
3.44 |
-3.75 |
-1.05 |
9.21 |
7.69 |
-4.06 |
-1.45 |
OGR |
13.2 |
5.64 |
3.75 |
-2.47 |
9.26 |
-3.65 |
2001, h = 1 |
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APE |
0.97 |
1.23 |
1.15 |
1.3 |
0.25 |
0.88 |
0.25 |
0.4 |
0.15 |
3.36 |
-0.22 |
2.11 |
FGR |
5.67 |
5.94 |
0.9 |
1.06 |
-1.61 |
-0.99 |
-3.12 |
-2.97 |
6.2 |
9.61 |
-3.10 |
-0.83 |
OGR |
4.65 |
-0.24 |
-1.86 |
-3.36 |
6.04 |
-2.88 |
2002, h = 1 |
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APE |
0.84 |
-0.07 |
-0.78 |
-3.36 |
1.86 |
1.28 |
-0.80 |
-1.70 |
0.56 |
0.04 |
-1.17 |
0.42 |
FGR |
-4.85 |
-5.71 |
6.15 |
3.39 |
-14.36 |
-14.84 |
-1.09 |
-1.98 |
5.01 |
4.47 |
-3.29 |
-1.73 |
OGR |
-5.64 |
6.98 |
-15.90 |
-0.29 |
4.43 |
-2.15 |
2001, h = 6 |
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APE |
2.65 |
3 |
5.09 |
2.27 |
-0.19 |
4.25 |
-0.22 |
1.09 |
3.61 |
4.33 |
-0.62 |
2.96 |
FGR |
7.42 |
7.79 |
4.84 |
2.02 |
-2.05 |
2.32 |
-3.57 |
-2.30 |
9.87 |
10.63 |
-3.48 |
0 |
OGR |
4.65 |
-0.24 |
-1.86 |
-3.36 |
6.04 |
-2.88 |
2002, h = 6 |
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APE |
3.55 |
1.86 |
-5.76 |
-5.56 |
7.37 |
4.73 |
-1.51 |
-2.28 |
1.05 |
2.36 |
-1.61 |
1.42 |
FGR |
-2.30 |
-3.89 |
0.82 |
1.03 |
-9.72 |
-11.94 |
-1.79 |
-2.56 |
5.52 |
6.89 |
-3.72 |
-0.76 |
OGR |
-5.64 |
6.98 |
-15.90 |
-0.29 |
4.43 |
-2.15 |
2001, h = 12 |
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APE |
3.52 |
7.57 |
10.46 |
7.2 |
-4.38 |
7.1 |
-0.62 |
0.42 |
2.01 |
2.17 |
-0.07 |
2.48 |
FGR |
8.33 |
12.57 |
10.19 |
2.02 |
-6.16 |
2.32 |
-3.96 |
-2.95 |
8.17 |
8.35 |
-2.95 |
-0.47 |
OGR |
4.65 |
-0.24 |
-1.86 |
-3.36 |
6.04 |
-2.88 |
2002, h = 12 |
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APE |
9.91 |
9.69 |
-10.13 |
-6.13 |
17.79 |
15.62 |
-2.14 |
-2.80 |
1.19 |
4.62 |
2.12 |
1.35 |
FGR |
3.71 |
3.5 |
-3.86 |
0.42 |
-0.96 |
-2.79 |
-2.42 |
-3.08 |
5.64 |
9.26 |
-0.07 |
-0.83 |
OGR |
-5.64 |
6.98 |
-15.90 |
-0.29 |
4.43 |
-2.15 |
2002, h = 24 |
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APE |
16.94 |
28.68 |
10.66 |
7 |
10.41 |
34 |
-2.48 |
-2.20 |
6.17 |
6.39 |
-1.17 |
3.98 |
FGR |
10.34 |
21.42 |
18.38 |
14.47 |
-7.17 |
12.67 |
-2.76 |
-2.48 |
17.17 |
11.11 |
-3.29 |
1.75 |
OGR |
-5.64 |
6.98 |
-15.90 |
-0.29 |
4.43 |
-2.15 |
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