MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
124 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2009
 
VALID JAN 16/0000 UTC THRU JAN 19/1200 UTC
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


00Z/16 FINAL MODEL COMPARISONS AND PREFERENCES...INCLUDING THE
ECMWF


ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SOLUTIONS.


...CLIPPER SAILING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE DAY 1...
THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS
WAVE...BOTH WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW AND THE SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DAY 3.  THE GEM GLOBAL AND
UKMET KEEP A SIMILAR PACE TO THE ECMWF...BUT TRACK THE PRIMARY
CENTER FARTHER NORTH.  THE ECMWF SHOULD MAKE A GOOD MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD CHOICE BASED ON THE CLUSTERING WITH THIS SYSTEM.

...CLIPPER SPLITTING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DAY 3...
THE NAM...GEM GLOBAL...AND ECMWF SHOW MORE ENERGY THAN THE CURRENT
GFS AND UKMET IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THIS SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SO WILL RELY ON THEIR CONSENSUS FOR
THIS SYSTEM CONSIDERING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...
  
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...  


CISCO