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East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150938
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JAN 15 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ CAN BE FOUND ALONG A LINE FROM 06N77W TO 06N95W TO 07N120W
TO 08N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN
30 NM OF AXIS FROM 125W TO 128W.
...DISCUSSION...
NEAR SHORE...
THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0058 UTC CONFIRMS GALE CONDITIONS IN THE
GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED HERE...WITH A
SUSTAINED MINIMAL GALE...UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN A NEW JOLT OF
ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO RACE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING INTO
SAT AS THE ARCTIC AIR FUNNELS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC.
IN TURN...WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE ON FRI AS THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS MAKES ITS
WAY FARTHER SOUTH. IN THE MEANTIME...THE STRONG TRADE WINDS IN
THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SEEP THROUGH COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA INTO
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH WINDS CURRENTLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT
RANGE AS CONFIRMED BY THE 0348 UTC ASCAT PASS.
ELSEWHERE...
THE BIGGEST HAZARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE THE BUILDING
SEAS AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL EMANATING FROM NW OF FORECAST
WATERS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 14 TO 16 FT OVER NW WATERS BY LATE
FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE SWELL MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LONG PERIOD SWELL...GENERALLY
IN THE 18 TO 20 SECOND RANGE...IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE W COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SAT. WINDS OVER FAR NW WATERS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE STARTING LATE
TODAY.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION...SUPPORTED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG 135W MEETS THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE WESTERLY
UPPER JET S OF 08N AND W OF 125W...CAN CURRENTLY BE FOUND FROM
11N TO 17N BETWEEN 123W AND 133W. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THIS PERIOD. BY THE WEEKEND...IT
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE WITH A TROUGH EXPECTED
IN THE VICINITY OF 125W TO 130W BETWEEN 08N AND 18N. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 20 KT...WITH SEAS ELEVATED TO 9 FT BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED NW SWELL WASHES THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT.
$$
SCHAUER CLARK
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