Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
000
FGUS73 KFGF 241650
ESFFGF
MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-107-111-113-119-125-073-
135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-067-071-077-081-
091-095-097-099-301200-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
1150 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2009
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES...AHPS...ENABLE THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS...
...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTNETIAL...
RED RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
VALID APRIL 27 2009 TO JULY 26 2009
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS GIVE THE CHANCE
THAT THE RIVER AT A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL RISE ABOVE THE STAGES
INDICATED BY THE VALUES IN THE ROW FOR THAT LOCATION ANYTIME DURING
THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: THE RED RIVER AT WAHPETON HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET.
IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE RED RIVER
AT WAHPETON WILL RISE ABOVE 13.0 FEET AND ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 16.2 FEET.
DUE TO THE CURRENT HIGH WATER CONDITIONS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
THAT MANY AREA RIVERS WILL STAY BELOW CURRENT LEVELS DURING THIS
OUTLOOK PERIOD...APRIL 27 TO JULY 26. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THE PRESENT RIVER LEVELS DURING THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD.
IN OTHER WORDS...CHANCES ARE GOOD THAT THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH. ANY
PROBABILITY THAT THE RIVER WILL EXCEED THE CURRENT LEVELS INDICATE
THAT THOSE CRESTS WERE CAUSED BY YEARS THAT HAD ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION ON DATES AFTER THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED FLOOD RECESSION.
THE LOWER PROBABILITIES OF HIGHER CRESTS REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUMER TIME FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINS.
IN RECENT SUMMERS...WE HAVE SEEN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RUNOFF THAT
HAS LED TO HIGH RIVER LEVELS.
IF THESE HEAVY RAINS OCCUR WHILE AREA RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD...THE
SUBSEQUENT CRESTS WOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES.
FOR EXAMPLE...DURING THIS OUTLOOK THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
THE RED RIVER AT EAST GRAND FORKS COULD EXCEED 42 FEET. IN JUNE OF
2005 THE RED RIVER DID EXCEED 40 FEET DUE TO HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT MAINSTEM RED RIVER LOCATIONS
VALID 4/27/2009 - 7/26/2009
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
WAHPETON ND 10 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.7 14.7 15.6 16.2
FARGO ND 18 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 29.2 30.9 32.9 34.9
HALSTAD ND 26 34.4 34.4 34.4 34.4 34.4 34.4 35.0 35.5 37.4
GRAND FORKS 28 40.7 40.7 40.7 40.7 40.7 40.8 41.0 42.1 44.5
OSLO MN 26 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.3 34.6 35.7
DRAYTON ND 32 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.3 41.1
PEMBINA ND 42 51.7 51.7 51.7 51.7 51.7 51.7 51.7 51.7 51.9
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT MINNESOTA TRIBUTARY LOCATIONS
VALID 4/27/2009 TO 7/26/2009
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
SO FORK BUFFALO RIVER...
SABIN 12 9.3 10.4 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.6 14.1 15.2
BUFFALO RIVER...
HAWLEY 7 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.9 7.0 7.6 7.8 8.3 10.3
DILWORTH 12 10.6 10.6 13.0 14.1 15.5 16.3 17.3 18.7 21.7
WILD RICE RIVER...
TWIN VALLEY 10 4.7 4.7 5.3 6.1 6.8 7.4 8.4 9.4 11.5
HENDRUM 20 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.9 24.9 25.3 26.6 29.6 31.4
MARSH RIVER...
SHELLY 14 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.6 11.2 12.2 13.9 16.8
SAND HILL RIVER...
CLIMAX 20 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.3 22.4 26.2
RED LAKE RIVER...
HIGHLANDING 12 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.6
CROOKSTON 15 10.8 11.0 11.4 12.0 13.3 14.7 16.7 17.9 20.9
SNAKE RIVER...
WARREN 845 841.9 841.9 841.9 841.9 842.0 842.2 842.3 842.4 843.0
ALVARADO 106 100.9 100.9 100.9 100.9 100.9 101.7 102.2 102.7 106.6
TWO RIVERS RIVER...
HALLOCK 802 798.8 798.8 798.8 799.0 800.4 801.3 803.6 805.0 806.9
ROSEAU RIVER...
ROSEAU 16 7.8 7.8 7.9 8.2 8.7 9.9 10.8 12.7 15.2
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARY LOCATIONS
VALID 4/27/2009 TO 7/26/2009
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
WILD RICE RIVER...
ABERCROMBIE 10 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 9.0 11.5 13.8 15.5 19.3
SHEYENNE RIVER...
VALLEY CITY 15 19.0 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.8 20.8 21.9
LISBON 11 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.8 21.1 22.0
KINDRED 16 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6
HARWOOD 884 890.4 890.4 890.4 890.4 890.4 890.5 890.6 891.1 892.0
WEST FARGO 18 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.8 22.7
MAPLE RIVER...
ENDERLIN 9 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.9 9.5 11.3 12.9
MAPLETON 905 904.6 904.6 904.6 904.6 904.9 905.6 906.6 907.9 908.6
GOOSE RIVER...
HILLSBORO 10 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.8 4.8 6.0 7.9 10.7
FOREST RIVER...
MINTO 6 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.6 4.0 5.3 6.8
PARK RIVER...
GRAFTON 12 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.6 10.3 11.5 13.0
PEMBINA RIVER...
WALHALLA 11 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1
NECHE 18 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.9
...DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL...
DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
VALID APRIL 30, 2009 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS PROVIDING MONTHLY UPDATES OF THE
LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES. THESE...AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED WEB GRAPHICS...ARE VALID FOR THE PERIOD OF APRIL 2009
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2009.
THE OUTLOOKS LISTED BELOW REPRESENT A DECREASE IN THE ANTICIPATED LAKE
LEVELS FROM THE PREVIOUS MONTH. THIS IS DUE TO THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT RAINS DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.
CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES RISING ABOVE
THE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS
VALID 4/30/2009 TO 9/30/2009
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
----------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CREEL BAY 1451.0 1451.1 1451.1 1451.2 1451.3 1451.3 1451.3 1451.6 1452.0
STUMP LAKE 1451.0 1451.1 1451.1 1451.2 1451.3 1451.3 1451.3 1451.6 1452.0
THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF DEVILS LAKE AT CREEL BAY IS 1448.8 FEET
THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF STUMP LAKE NEAR LAKOTA IS 1448.5 FEET
ON MAY 9 OF 2006...A NEW PROVISIONAL RECORD OF 1449.20 FEET
OCCURRED...BEATING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 1449.18 FEET THAT
OCCURRED ON JUNE 17 OF 2004. FOR PREVIOUS HIGH WATER MARKS...
SEE THE USGS FLOOD TRACKING CHARTS AT:
HTTP://ND.WATER.USGS.GOV/FLOODTRACKING
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS NOW INCLUDING CHANCES THAT
DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES WILL FALL BELOW LEVELS GIVEN IN THE
PROBABILITY OF NON-EXCEEDANCE TABLE BELOW:
CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES FALLING BELOW
THE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS
VALID 4/30/2009 TO 9/30/2009
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
----------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CREEL BAY 1449.3 1449.2 1449.2 1449.2 1449.2 1449.2 1449.2 1449.2 1449.2
STUMP LAKE 1449.3 1449.2 1449.2 1449.2 1449.2 1449.2 1449.2 1449.2 1449.2
THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...
THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
RIVER LEVELS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST RESULTS OF THE NWS ENSEMBLE
STREAMFLOW MODEL...ESG. THE MODEL IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS
USING CURRENT RIVER...SNOW AND SOIL CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH ABOUT
50 YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...AND COMPARED AGAINST CURRENT
SPRING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS.
PROVIDING A RANGE OF RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND PAST SPRING WEATHER...THE OUTLOOK GIVES EXPECTED
AMOUNTS OF RISK WHICH CAN THEN HELP WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING
AND RESPONSE READINESS. THIS OUTLOOK IS A PART OF NOAA/S NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE/S AHPS (ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES).
FORECASTERS PRODUCE MULTIPLE SCENARIO HYDROGRAPHS USING THE ESF
MODEL INITIALIZED WITH RECENT RAIN/SNOW AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS
IN THE RED RIVER BASIN AND APPLYING SETS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURES FOR THE YEARS 1949 THROUGH 2004 AND FOR THE VALID
PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...
THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABALISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED EACH MONTH
TYPICALLY BETWEEN THE FIRST AND SECOND FRIDAY AFTER MID-MONTH.
HOWEVER...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL SPRING MELT PERIOD...USUALLY
FROM EARLY MARCH TO EARLY APRIL...DEPENDING ON CONDITIONS.
THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS AND EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP INTERPRETING THEM
ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS WEB PAGE ON THE
INTERNET AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS
THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS" LINK IN THE LEFT MENU.
CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE RED
RIVER OF THE NORTH AND DEVILS/STUMP LAKE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE...AS WELL AS THE 7-DAY FORECASTS WHEN
THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720.
$$
TEAM FGF
