Physician
Requirements Model
The
PRM uses a utilization-based approach to estimate physician
requirements. [9]
The
PRM projects requirements for 18 medical specialties through
2020 based on current use patterns of physician services
and expected trends in United States demographics, insurance
coverage, and patterns of care delivery. These use patterns
are expressed as physician-to-population ratios for each
specialty and population segment defined by age, sex, metropolitan/non-metropolitan
location, and insurance type. The baseline ratios are established
using 2000 data. Thus, the three major components of the
model are:
(1) Population
projections by age, [10]
sex, and metropolitan/non-metropolitan location;
(2) Projected
insurance distribution by insurance type, age, sex, metropolitan/non-metropolitan
location; and
(3) Detailed
physician-to-population ratios (Exhibit 20).
Exhibit
20. Overview of the Physician Demand Model
[D]
Below,
we explore trends in major determinants of physician requirements
as well as potential impact of alternative assumptions regarding
these trends. |