Press Release 08-197
Using Mathematical Models to Predict Global Migration

Mathematicians create a new approach to figure out who will move where in the 21st Century

In the coming decades, millions of people will leave their home countries and settle elsewhere. Credit and Larger Version

November 6, 2008

View a video interview of Joel E. Cohen of Rockefeller University and Columbia University.

The growing pace of globalization has increased the level of human migration as individuals and families move from one country or continent to another to escape hardships or seek a better future. The world's future stability will require the various countries that will lose and receive people to be prepared for this trend.

Joel E. Cohen, a researcher at Rockefeller University and Columbia University, discussed his work on developing mathematical models to predict human migration patterns in a videotaped interview. In this interview, Cohen describes how he and his colleagues developed a sophisticated mathematical model that gives policy makers a better estimate of which countries and regions will face declining populations and which ones will grow as people move around the world.

The United Nations and other agencies are interested in using this new approach, which is a departure from traditional population modeling.

The research was supported by the National Science Foundation.

-NSF-

Media Contacts
Dana W. Cruikshank, NSF (703) 292-8070 dcruiksh@nsf.gov

The National Science Foundation (NSF) is an independent federal agency that supports fundamental research and education across all fields of science and engineering, with an annual budget of $6.06 billion. NSF funds reach all 50 states through grants to over 1,900 universities and institutions. Each year, NSF receives about 45,000 competitive requests for funding, and makes over 11,500 new funding awards. NSF also awards over $400 million in professional and service contracts yearly.

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