NOAA
UPDATES ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK
Above-Normal Season Still Expected
August
9, 2007 — NOAA’s Climate
Prediction Center today released its update
to the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, maintaining its expectations
for an above-normal season.
As
we enter the peak months (August through October) of the Atlantic hurricane
season, NOAA scientists are predicting an 85 percent chance of an above-normal
season, with the likelihood of 13 to 16 named storms, with seven to
nine becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major
hurricanes (Category 3 strength or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Scale). (Click NOAA image for larger view
of NOAA’s 2007 Atlantic hurricane season update. Click here
for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.”)
The development
of key climate factors through early August has increased the confidence
of an above-normal season, and has also led the NOAA team to slightly
tighten the ranges that had been given in their May
outlook — due to development
of La Niña-like conditions exerting influence. In
May, NOAA predicted a range of 13-17 named storms, with seven to 10
becoming hurricanes, and three to five becoming major hurricanes.
The
climate patterns responsible for the expected above-normal 2007 hurricane
season continue to be the ongoing multi-decadal signal (the set of oceanic
and atmospheric conditions that have spawned increased Atlantic hurricane
activity since 1995), warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in
key areas of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and the El Niño/La
Niña cycle, according to Gerry
Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s
Climate Prediction Center based in Camp Springs, Md. (Click
NOAA image for larger view of conditions in the Atlantic Basin that
can produce an above normal hurricane season. Click here
for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.”)
“Most of the atmospheric and oceanic conditions have developed
as expected, and are consistent with those predicted in May,”
said Bell. “The biggest wild card in the May outlook was whether
or not La Niña would form, and if so, how strong it would be.
“Today’s El Niño/La Niña forecast from the
Climate Prediction Center indicates a slightly greater than 50 percent
probability that La Niña will form during the peak of the hurricane
season. But more importantly, we are already observing wind patterns
similar to those created by La Niña across the tropical Pacific
Ocean and Caribbean Sea that encourage tropical cyclone development.
The conditions are ripe for an above-normal season.”
NOAA’s
seasonal outlooks do not specify where and when tropical storms and
hurricanes could strike. Nevertheless, during above-normal seasons many
of the storms form over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. These systems generally
track westward, towards the United States and the Caribbean Sea, thereby
posing an increased threat to these regions. (Click NOAA image
for larger view of historical tropical cyclone frequency. Click here
for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.”)
So
far this season, there have been three Atlantic named storms (Andrea,
Barry and Chantal), which is slightly above average. On average,
one to two storms develop in June and July. The Atlantic hurricane season
runs from June 1 through November 30.
The 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season outlook is a joint product of the
scientists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, National
Hurricane Center, Hurricane
Research Division, and Hydrometeorological
Prediction Center. NOAA meteorologists use a suite of sophisticated
computer forecast models and high-tech tools to forecast tropical storms
and hurricanes. Scientists rely on information gathered by NOAA and
U.S. Air Force Reserve personnel who fly directly into storms in hurricane
hunter aircraft; NOAA, NASA and Department of Defense satellites;
a network of Doppler radars
and buoys and partners among
the international meteorological services.
NOAA
is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through
the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and
information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental
stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the
emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS),
NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 70 countries and
the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that
is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.
Relevant
Web Sites
Updated
2007 Atlantic Hurricane outlook (technical product)
Climate
Prediction Center’s ENSO Diagnostic Discussion/Forecast
NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards
Hurricane-Related
Services Provided by NOAA: Fact Sheet
NOAA
Weather Radio All Hazards: On Alert For All Emergencies
Media
Contact:
Carmeyia Gillis, NOAA
Climate Prediction Center, (301) 763-8000 ext. 7163
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