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Sea Level Rise 2005 Abstracts

SLR2005: Shore-Zone Modification in Response to Sea Level Rise in North Carolina Estuaries

Institutions: East Carolina University & University of Pennsylvania

Principal Investigator: D. Reide Corbett, East Carolina University

Investigators: Mark Brinson (East Carolina University), Robert Christian (East Carolina University), Stan Riggs (East Carolina University), J.P. Walsh (East Carolina University) Benjamin Horton (University of Pennsylvania).

Abstract

North Carolina 's estuarine ecosystems are a product of flooding coastal plain drainage systems by post-glacial sea-level rise. As these ecosystems have evolved to their current state, continued rise in sea level, no matter the cause, will further impact natural resources (e.g., wetland distribution, structure and function) and coastal communities (e.g., by erosion and flooding). To understand the ecological effects of rising sea level, it is imperative to focus on the area undoubtedly affected by sea-level rise, the shore zone, which extends from shallow subtidal waters in estuaries to the most landward edge of estuarine wetlands. As sea-level rises the area inundated by estuarine water will change, migrating the shore zone and altering the landscape simultaneously. North Carolina estuaries today encompass shore zones of diverse nature, including high-energy sandy beaches to well-protected freshwater swamps and marshes along tributary drainages. Superimposed on these natural gradients are a host of human activities and land uses that also will be affected by rising sea level. Efforts by society will certainly be made to mitigate against shoreline retreat and dynamic hydrological conditions but these actions can cause more harm than good.

We hypothesize that shore-zone dynamics are regulated by inundation and other quantifiable parameters (e.g., fetch). Our group will use relevant GIS datasets (e.g., soils) and remotely sensed observations coupled with sediment cores and grab samples collected and analyzed over the last two decades to determine the factors and scales necessary to evaluate shore zone modification. This will provide the foundation for the development of a predictive GIS tool of shore zone/ecosystem modification due to sea level rise.

Recognizing and understanding the complex causes and dynamic processes involved in shoreline erosion and shore zone alteration, including the ensuing ecological change in state and function is the necessary first step towards minimizing the erosion impacts and managing our shoreline resources and economic investments. Ultimately, to both preserve our coastal estuarine resources and maximize human utilization, long-term management solutions of estuarine shoreline erosion problems must be in harmony with the dynamics of the total coastal system. Our GIS-based mapping effort will provide coastal managers with products and knowledge needed for proactive management and a basis for regulatory protection.

SLR2005: Ecological Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal North Carolina Marshes

Institutions: University of South Carolina, Vanderbilt University, East Carolina University, and the U.S. Geological Survey.

Principal Investigator: James T. Morris, University of South Carolina

Investigators: David Jon Furbish (Vanderbilt University), Donald R. Cahoon, (US Geological Survey), Robert R. Christian (East Carolina University).

Abstract

This proposal outlines a plan to develop a spatially explicit model of coastal marsh responses to sea-level rise for Pamlico and Core Sounds in North Carolina . Existing models that integrate vegetation responses to changes in mean sea level with sediment accretion and supply will be adapted to the marsh communities and conditions of Pamlico Sound . The goal is to develop a 2-D landscape model for Pamlico coastal wetlands capable of forecasting changes in plant community composition, sediment accretion, and geomorphology in response to tidal forcing and sea-level rise. Model parameter values will be derived where possible from existing data from well-studied sites including Cedar Island , NC , Core Sound , NC , and North Inlet , SC and with a limited set of field experiments where critical data are needed. Existing LIDAR data will establish the baseline topography or digital elevation model (DEM), and existing hyperspectral data will be utilized to map plant community distributions onto the DEM. Long-term measurements of marsh surface elevation from Cedar Island and plant community distributions outside the calibration data set will be used to validate the model.

SLR2005: Modeling Estuarine Habitat Response to Rising Water Level

Institution: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Institute of Marine Sciences (UNC-IMS)

Principal Investigator: Charles Peterson (UNC-IMS)

Investigators: Richard Luettich (UNC-IMS), Jr., Michael Piehler (UNC-IMS), Christopher Buzzelli (UNC-IMS).

Abstract

Estuarine shorelines are under the stress of increased water level ranging from short term waves and storm surge to long term inundation through relative sea level rise (RSLR). Segments of vulnerable, yet economically valuable, shorelines in states such as the North Carolina (NC) are often protected with hard structures such as bulkheads. Although the NC coast is geologically dynamic with a present rate of RSLR of 0.3 cm y -1 , it is not known how RSLR, sporadic storm activity, and shoreline hardening affect the ecological services of shoreline habitats. These habitats provide physical and biogeochemical buffers in estuaries and are essential to sustainable fishery production. This study will use simulation modeling to better comprehend the ecological responses of NC estuarine habitats facing increasing water level. The goal is to develop an estuarine habitat simulation module (HSM) linked to the NOS coastal flooding model (NOS CFM) that will forecast the effects variable water levels and shoreline stabilization on the structure and ecological function of sub-tidal, SAV, inter-tidal flat, oyster, and marsh habitats in Back and Bogue Sounds. The HSM will integrate all project components including water level and velocity from the NOS CFM, habitat size and position from a localized geographic information system (GIS), wave energy and light attenuation from a wave energy model (WEMo), and habitat attributes and biogeochemical process rates from the a suite of empirical studies Back and Bogue Sounds. The GIS will house all the accumulated data layers and permit distribution of model results across our sampling domains. Modeled rates of annual net primary production, remineralization, and secondary production for each of the 5 habitats will serve as integrative response variables for scenarios including the present rate of RSLR over the next decade, increased storm surge intensity, addition of a bulkhead, or addition of a breakwater sill. The products will include short- and long-term predictions on the functioning of estuarine habitats through different scenarios of water level rise and shoreline modifications. Resource managers and other stakeholders will be able to remotely access the maps and habitat model results and run an ecosystem level model through a devoted internet site. The proposed study will achieve multiple purposes over a range of spatial and temporal scales, integrate with NOS modeling efforts, and serve managers of coastal resources in North Carolina and other southeastern states.