CBO’s Baseline Budget Projections
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Total, |
Total, |
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Actual |
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2009- |
2009- |
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2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2013 |
2018 |
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In Billions of Dollars |
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Revenues |
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Individual income taxes |
1,163 |
1,211 |
1,340 |
1,399 |
1,611 |
1,753 |
1,863 |
1,962 |
2,070 |
2,184 |
2,307 |
2,438 |
7,966 |
18,928 |
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Corporate income taxes |
370 |
364 |
356 |
334 |
333 |
357 |
327 |
342 |
350 |
361 |
374 |
388 |
1,707 |
3,522 |
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Social insurance taxes |
870 |
910 |
947 |
997 |
1,049 |
1,101 |
1,149 |
1,199 |
1,249 |
1,301 |
1,355 |
1,411 |
5,244 |
11,758 |
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Other |
164 |
169 |
174 |
177 |
188 |
231 |
245 |
260 |
272 |
285 |
298 |
311 |
1,016 |
2,441 |
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Total |
2,568 |
2,654 |
2,817 |
2,907 |
3,182 |
3,442 |
3,585 |
3,763 |
3,941 |
4,131 |
4,334 |
4,548 |
15,933 |
36,649 |
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On-budget |
1,933 |
1,990 |
2,123 |
2,177 |
2,414 |
2,636 |
2,743 |
2,883 |
3,024 |
3,175 |
3,337 |
3,509 |
12,093 |
28,020 |
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Off-budget |
635 |
665 |
694 |
730 |
768 |
806 |
842 |
880 |
918 |
957 |
997 |
1,039 |
3,839 |
8,629 |
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Outlays |
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Mandatory spending |
1,450 |
1,550 |
1,654 |
1,737 |
1,846 |
1,884 |
2,022 |
2,138 |
2,270 |
2,451 |
2,578 |
2,706 |
9,142 |
21,285 |
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Discretionary spending |
1,042 |
1,089 |
1,121 |
1,145 |
1,170 |
1,186 |
1,216 |
1,243 |
1,272 |
1,307 |
1,335 |
1,360 |
5,838 |
12,356 |
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Net interest |
238 |
234 |
241 |
266 |
283 |
286 |
285 |
285 |
282 |
278 |
271 |
259 |
1,360 |
2,735 |
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Total |
2,731 |
2,873 |
3,015 |
3,148 |
3,299 |
3,355 |
3,524 |
3,666 |
3,824 |
4,037 |
4,183 |
4,325 |
16,341 |
36,376 |
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On-budget |
2,277 |
2,404 |
2,519 |
2,628 |
2,757 |
2,788 |
2,926 |
3,037 |
3,160 |
3,334 |
3,439 |
3,536 |
13,618 |
30,124 |
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Off-budget |
454 |
469 |
496 |
520 |
541 |
568 |
597 |
629 |
664 |
702 |
744 |
789 |
2,723 |
6,251 |
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Deficit (-) or Surplus |
-163 |
-219 |
-198 |
-241 |
-117 |
87 |
61 |
96 |
117 |
95 |
151 |
223 |
-408 |
274 |
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On-budget |
-344 |
-414 |
-396 |
-450 |
-343 |
-151 |
-184 |
-154 |
-136 |
-160 |
-102 |
-27 |
-1,525 |
-2,104 |
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Off-budget |
181 |
195 |
198 |
210 |
226 |
238 |
244 |
251 |
254 |
254 |
253 |
249 |
1,117 |
2,378 |
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Debt Held by the Public |
5,035 |
5,232 |
5,443 |
5,698 |
5,827 |
5,751 |
5,701 |
5,613 |
5,503 |
5,414 |
5,269 |
5,050 |
n.a. |
n.a. |
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Memorandum: |
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Gross Domestic Product |
13,670 |
14,201 |
14,812 |
15,600 |
16,445 |
17,256 |
18,043 |
18,856 |
19,685 |
20,540 |
21,426 |
22,355 |
82,156 |
185,018 |
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As a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product |
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Revenues |
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Individual income taxes |
8.5 |
8.5 |
9.0 |
9.0 |
9.8 |
10.2 |
10.3 |
10.4 |
10.5 |
10.6 |
10.8 |
10.9 |
9.7 |
10.2 |
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Corporate income taxes |
2.7 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
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Social insurance taxes |
6.4 |
6.4 |
6.4 |
6.4 |
6.4 |
6.4 |
6.4 |
6.4 |
6.3 |
6.3 |
6.3 |
6.3 |
6.4 |
6.4 |
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Other |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
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Total |
18.8 |
18.7 |
19.0 |
18.6 |
19.3 |
19.9 |
19.9 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
20.1 |
20.2 |
20.3 |
19.4 |
19.8 |
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On-budget |
14.1 |
14.0 |
14.3 |
14.0 |
14.7 |
15.3 |
15.2 |
15.3 |
15.4 |
15.5 |
15.6 |
15.7 |
14.7 |
15.1 |
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Off-budget |
4.6 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
4.6 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
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Outlays |
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Mandatory spending |
10.6 |
10.9 |
11.2 |
11.1 |
11.2 |
10.9 |
11.2 |
11.3 |
11.5 |
11.9 |
12.0 |
12.1 |
11.1 |
11.5 |
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Discretionary spending |
7.6 |
7.7 |
7.6 |
7.3 |
7.1 |
6.9 |
6.7 |
6.6 |
6.5 |
6.4 |
6.2 |
6.1 |
7.1 |
6.7 |
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Net interest |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
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Total |
20.0 |
20.2 |
20.4 |
20.2 |
20.1 |
19.4 |
19.5 |
19.4 |
19.4 |
19.7 |
19.5 |
19.3 |
19.9 |
19.7 |
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On-budget |
16.7 |
16.9 |
17.0 |
16.8 |
16.8 |
16.2 |
16.2 |
16.1 |
16.1 |
16.2 |
16.1 |
15.8 |
16.6 |
16.3 |
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Off-budget |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
3.4 |
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Deficit (-) or Surplus |
-1.2 |
-1.5 |
-1.3 |
-1.5 |
-0.7 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
-0.5 |
0.1 |
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On-budget |
-2.5 |
-2.9 |
-2.7 |
-2.9 |
-2.1 |
-0.9 |
-1.0 |
-0.8 |
-0.7 |
-0.8 |
-0.5 |
-0.1 |
-1.9 |
-1.1 |
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Off-budget |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
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Debt Held by the Public |
36.8 |
36.8 |
36.7 |
36.5 |
35.4 |
33.3 |
31.6 |
29.8 |
28.0 |
26.4 |
24.6 |
22.6 |
n.a. |
n.a. |
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Source: Congressional Budget Office.
Note: n.a. = not applicable.
CBO’s Baseline Projections of Mandatory Outlays
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Total, |
Total, |
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Actual |
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2009- |
2009- |
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2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2013 |
2018 |
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Social Security |
581 |
611 |
646 |
682 |
719 |
761 |
807 |
856 |
908 |
965 |
1,027 |
1,092 |
3,615 |
8,464 |
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Medicarea |
436 |
454 |
485 |
512 |
561 |
565 |
629 |
671 |
719 |
803 |
841 |
879 |
2,752 |
6,666 |
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Medicaid |
191 |
208 |
225 |
243 |
261 |
282 |
304 |
328 |
353 |
381 |
412 |
445 |
1,314 |
3,232 |
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Income Security |
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Supplemental Security Income |
36 |
41 |
43 |
45 |
51 |
44 |
50 |
52 |
53 |
60 |
57 |
53 |
234 |
509 |
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Earned income and child tax credits |
54 |
56 |
56 |
57 |
58 |
40 |
41 |
41 |
41 |
41 |
41 |
41 |
252 |
458 |
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Unemployment compensation |
33 |
39 |
46 |
43 |
40 |
43 |
45 |
48 |
50 |
52 |
54 |
56 |
217 |
476 |
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Food Stamps |
35 |
38 |
41 |
42 |
42 |
43 |
44 |
44 |
45 |
46 |
48 |
49 |
212 |
445 |
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Family supportb |
24 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
121 |
246 |
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Child nutrition |
14 |
15 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
85 |
190 |
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Foster care |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
37 |
81 |
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Subtotal |
202 |
221 |
233 |
235 |
240 |
220 |
230 |
237 |
243 |
254 |
256 |
257 |
1,159 |
2,406 |
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Other Retirement and Disability |
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Federal civilianc |
72 |
75 |
78 |
82 |
85 |
89 |
92 |
96 |
100 |
104 |
107 |
111 |
426 |
945 |
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Military |
44 |
46 |
49 |
50 |
51 |
53 |
54 |
55 |
56 |
58 |
59 |
61 |
257 |
546 |
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Veterand |
36 |
40 |
41 |
42 |
47 |
42 |
46 |
47 |
49 |
54 |
52 |
49 |
218 |
470 |
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Other |
8 |
9 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
46 |
99 |
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Subtotal |
159 |
169 |
177 |
183 |
192 |
193 |
202 |
209 |
216 |
226 |
229 |
233 |
947 |
2,060 |
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Other Programs |
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Commodity Credit Corporation Fund |
8 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
37 |
77 |
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TRICARE For Life |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
15 |
45 |
108 |
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Student loans |
7 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
20 |
32 |
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Universal Service Fund |
7 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
42 |
87 |
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State Children's Health Insurance |
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Program |
6 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
28 |
53 |
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Social services |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
26 |
53 |
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Other |
18 |
34 |
35 |
33 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
29 |
30 |
32 |
38 |
40 |
161 |
329 |
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Subtotal |
59 |
73 |
71 |
72 |
72 |
72 |
71 |
69 |
72 |
74 |
81 |
85 |
357 |
739 |
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Offsetting Receipts |
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Medicaree |
-66 |
-69 |
-74 |
-79 |
-84 |
-90 |
-96 |
-103 |
-110 |
-119 |
-129 |
-139 |
-423 |
-1,024 |
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Employers' share of |
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employees' retirement |
-48 |
-51 |
-55 |
-57 |
-59 |
-62 |
-64 |
-67 |
-70 |
-73 |
-82 |
-86 |
-297 |
-674 |
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Other |
-64 |
-65 |
-54 |
-54 |
-56 |
-57 |
-60 |
-62 |
-61 |
-62 |
-57 |
-60 |
-282 |
-583 |
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Subtotal |
-178 |
-186 |
-183 |
-190 |
-200 |
-209 |
-220 |
-231 |
-241 |
-254 |
-268 |
-285 |
-1,001 |
-2,281 |
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Total Mandatory Outlays |
1,450 |
1,550 |
1,654 |
1,737 |
1,846 |
1,884 |
2,022 |
2,138 |
2,270 |
2,451 |
2,578 |
2,706 |
9,142 |
21,285 |
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Memorandum: |
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Mandatory Outlays Excluding |
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Offsetting Receipts |
1,628 |
1,736 |
1,836 |
1,927 |
2,046 |
2,092 |
2,243 |
2,369 |
2,511 |
2,705 |
2,846 |
2,991 |
10,143 |
23,566 |
|||
Medicare Outlays Net of |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
Offsetting Receipts |
370 |
385 |
411 |
433 |
477 |
475 |
533 |
569 |
609 |
684 |
712 |
740 |
2,329 |
5,642 |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source: Congressional Budget Office.
Note: Spending for the benefit programs shown above generally excludes administrative costs, which are discretionary.
a. Excludes offsetting receipts.
b. Includes Temporary Assistance for Needy Families and various programs that involve payments to states for child support enforcement and family support.
d. Includes veterans’ compensation, pensions, and life insurance programs.
CBO’s Baseline Projections of Mandatory Outlays
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total, |
Total, |
|
|
|
|
Actual |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2009- |
2009- |
|
|
|
|
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2013 |
2018 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Social Security |
581 |
611 |
646 |
682 |
719 |
761 |
807 |
856 |
908 |
965 |
1,027 |
1,092 |
3,615 |
8,464 |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Medicarea |
436 |
454 |
485 |
512 |
561 |
565 |
629 |
671 |
719 |
803 |
841 |
879 |
2,752 |
6,666 |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Medicaid |
191 |
208 |
225 |
243 |
261 |
282 |
304 |
328 |
353 |
381 |
412 |
445 |
1,314 |
3,232 |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Income Security |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Supplemental Security Income |
36 |
41 |
43 |
45 |
51 |
44 |
50 |
52 |
53 |
60 |
57 |
53 |
234 |
509 |
||
|
Earned income and child tax credits |
54 |
56 |
56 |
57 |
58 |
40 |
41 |
41 |
41 |
41 |
41 |
41 |
252 |
458 |
||
|
Unemployment compensation |
33 |
39 |
46 |
43 |
40 |
43 |
45 |
48 |
50 |
52 |
54 |
56 |
217 |
476 |
||
|
Food Stamps |
35 |
38 |
41 |
42 |
42 |
43 |
44 |
44 |
45 |
46 |
48 |
49 |
212 |
445 |
||
|
Family supportb |
24 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
121 |
246 |
||
|
Child nutrition |
14 |
15 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
85 |
190 |
||
|
Foster care |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
37 |
81 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Subtotal |
202 |
221 |
233 |
235 |
240 |
220 |
230 |
237 |
243 |
254 |
256 |
257 |
1,159 |
2,406 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other Retirement and Disability |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Federal civilianc |
72 |
75 |
78 |
82 |
85 |
89 |
92 |
96 |
100 |
104 |
107 |
111 |
426 |
945 |
||
|
Military |
44 |
46 |
49 |
50 |
51 |
53 |
54 |
55 |
56 |
58 |
59 |
61 |
257 |
546 |
||
|
Veterand |
36 |
40 |
41 |
42 |
47 |
42 |
46 |
47 |
49 |
54 |
52 |
49 |
218 |
470 |
||
|
Other |
8 |
9 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
46 |
99 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Subtotal |
159 |
169 |
177 |
183 |
192 |
193 |
202 |
209 |
216 |
226 |
229 |
233 |
947 |
2,060 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other Programs |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Commodity Credit Corporation Fund |
8 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
37 |
77 |
||
|
TRICARE For Life |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
15 |
45 |
108 |
||
|
Student loans |
7 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
20 |
32 |
||
|
Universal Service Fund |
7 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
42 |
87 |
||
|
State Children's Health Insurance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Program |
6 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
28 |
53 |
||
|
Social services |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
26 |
53 |
||
|
Other |
18 |
34 |
35 |
33 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
29 |
30 |
32 |
38 |
40 |
161 |
329 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Subtotal |
59 |
73 |
71 |
72 |
72 |
72 |
71 |
69 |
72 |
74 |
81 |
85 |
357 |
739 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Offsetting Receipts |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Medicaree |
-66 |
-69 |
-74 |
-79 |
-84 |
-90 |
-96 |
-103 |
-110 |
-119 |
-129 |
-139 |
-423 |
-1,024 |
||
|
Employers' share of |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
employees' retirement |
-48 |
-51 |
-55 |
-57 |
-59 |
-62 |
-64 |
-67 |
-70 |
-73 |
-82 |
-86 |
-297 |
-674 |
||
|
Other |
-64 |
-65 |
-54 |
-54 |
-56 |
-57 |
-60 |
-62 |
-61 |
-62 |
-57 |
-60 |
-282 |
-583 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Subtotal |
-178 |
-186 |
-183 |
-190 |
-200 |
-209 |
-220 |
-231 |
-241 |
-254 |
-268 |
-285 |
-1,001 |
-2,281 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total Mandatory Outlays |
1,450 |
1,550 |
1,654 |
1,737 |
1,846 |
1,884 |
2,022 |
2,138 |
2,270 |
2,451 |
2,578 |
2,706 |
9,142 |
21,285 |
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||
Memorandum: |
|||||||||||||||||
Mandatory Outlays Excluding |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
Offsetting Receipts |
1,628 |
1,736 |
1,836 |
1,927 |
2,046 |
2,092 |
2,243 |
2,369 |
2,511 |
2,705 |
2,846 |
2,991 |
10,143 |
23,566 |
|||
Medicare Outlays Net of |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
Offsetting Receipts |
370 |
385 |
411 |
433 |
477 |
475 |
533 |
569 |
609 |
684 |
712 |
740 |
2,329 |
5,642 |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source: Congressional Budget Office.
Note: Spending for the benefit programs shown above generally excludes administrative costs, which are discretionary.
a. Excludes offsetting receipts.
b. Includes Temporary Assistance for Needy Families and various programs that involve payments to states for child support enforcement and family support.
d. Includes veterans’ compensation, pensions, and life insurance programs.
CBO’s Baseline Projections of Federal Debt
|
|
|
Actual |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Debt Held by the Public at the |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
Beginning of the Year |
4,829 |
5,035 |
5,232 |
5,443 |
5,698 |
5,827 |
5,751 |
5,701 |
5,613 |
5,503 |
5,414 |
5,269 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Changes to Debt Held by the Public |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Deficit or surplus (-) |
163 |
219 |
198 |
241 |
117 |
-87 |
-61 |
-96 |
-117 |
-95 |
-151 |
-223 |
|
|
Other means of financing |
43 |
-22 |
13 |
14 |
12 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
206 |
197 |
211 |
255 |
129 |
-76 |
-51 |
-87 |
-111 |
-88 |
-146 |
-219 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
Debt Held by the Public at the End of the Year |
5,035 |
5,232 |
5,443 |
5,698 |
5,827 |
5,751 |
5,701 |
5,613 |
5,503 |
5,414 |
5,269 |
5,050 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Memorandum: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
Debt Held by the Public at the End of the Year as a Percentage of GDP |
36.8 |
36.8 |
36.7 |
36.5 |
35.4 |
33.3 |
31.6 |
29.8 |
28.0 |
26.4 |
24.6 |
22.6 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source: Congressional Budget Office.
Changes in CBO’s Baseline Projections of the Deficit or Surplus Since January 2008
Source: Congressional Budget Office.
Note: * = between -$500 million and $500 million; OCS = Outer Continental Shelf.
a. Includes offsetting receipts.
b. Negative numbers indicate an increase in the deficit or a decrease in the surplus.
CBO’s Estimate of the Effect of the President’s Budget on Baseline Deficits or Surpluses
Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Joint Committee on Taxation.
Note: * = between -$500 million and $500 million; EGTRRA = Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001; JGTRRA = Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003; AMT = alternative minimum tax; SCHIP = State Children’s Health Insurance Program; PBGC = Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation; OMB = Office of Management and Budget.
a. The estimates shown include the effect on revenues only; however, refundable earned income and child tax credits are also affected and shown in the outlay section of the table.
b. Negative numbers indicate an increase in the deficit or a decrease in the surplus.