Gulf of Mexico Oil and Gas Production Forecast: 2004-2013
 OCS Report MMS 2004-065

The Minerals Management Service (MMS) Gulf of Mexico OCS Region announces the release of the publication Gulf of Mexico Oil and Gas Production Forecast: 2004 – 2013. The new report forecasts the daily oil and gas production rates for the Gulf of Mexico in that period, predicting an increase from 1.5 million barrels of oil per day in 2003 to over 2 million barrels of oil per day in 2006. (The term “oil production” includes both oil and condensate, and “gas” includes associated and nonassociated gas production.)

Currently sanctioned deepwater projects will drive the increase in deepwater oil production over the next few years.  After these sanctioned projects reach their production peaks, the report indicates that the anticipated level of 2 million barrels of oil per day can be maintained if operators commit to developing existing discoveries and continue to explore the deepwater frontier.  MMS also forecasts that total Gulf gas production levels near 12 billion cubic feet per day can be maintained with continued operator exploration and development.

This year’s production estimate is based on a new methodology.  In addition to surveying oil and gas companies, MMS analyzed recent deepwater discoveries and forecast “yet to be discovered” deepwater reserves.  This method enabled MMS to forecast Gulf production 10 years out instead of the previous 5-year projection.

The entire report can be found on the Minerals Management Service Gulf of Mexico OCS Region homepage on the Internet www.gomr.mms.gov. Copies of the report can be obtained from the Minerals Management Service, Gulf of Mexico Region, at no charge, by referencing OCS Report MMS 2004-065. The report will also be available in the near future from the National Technical Information Service. These addresses are provided below.