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Coral Reef Ecological Forecasting
A primary focus of CSCOR's coral reef research is the development of ecological forecasts (i.e., the capability to predict the effects and interactions of environmental variability and anthropogenic stressors on coastal ecosystems, and the impacts of management actions on ecosystems and coastal economies). The predictive capabilities that result from CSCOR's ecosystem-level research are used to produce ecological forecasts that then lead to better decision-making, better communication between scientists and managers, and help to set science priorities for the future. All of CSCOR's Coral Reef Ecosystem Studies programs are required to develop tools, such as ecological forecasting models and/or data syntheses for decision making, to assist local resource managers in predicting ecosystem health as a result of certain ecological impacts (e.g. climate change, coastal land-use, invasive species, extreme events, contaminants, etc.). Such tools must have the capacity to predict ecosystem health following alternative management actions, in order to assess and prioritize management strategies.
For more information on CSCOR's coral reef research programs click here.
Coral Reef Ecosystem Studies (CRES)
As an example of successful forecasting tool development, the CRES Micronesia researchers have developed two new models, one that quantifies the spatial and temporal extent of watershed discharges onto coastal coral reefs, based on watershed catchments, receiving water, meteorological, and biological attributes. This HOME model is based on Hydrology, Oceanography, Meteorology and Ecology, and is presently being applied to coral reefs ranging in scale from the Great Barrier Reef in Australia to the Ngerikill Reef in Palau . The second model is the first of its kind to quantify changes in the biological community structure on coral reefs along a gradient of watershed discharges. These watershed models are used by the local management community to predict the effects of land-based pollutants on coral reef ecosystems.
As another example, the CRES Caribbean project will couple the ecological and socioeconomic results of the field research in Puerto Rico and St. John into a relational database using GIS technology to produce an interdisciplinary predictive Decision Support System (DSS). The DSS will provide managers not only with study results in a user-friendly format, but provide a capability to conduct impact scenario assessments and predict how various management strategies will affect the coral reef ecosystem.