FXUS61 KAKQ 202001 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 301 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2009 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND FURHER AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LOW PRS NOW WELL E OF HAT BUT PCPN CONTS ALONG SFC TROF XTNDG W ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. LTST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A FEW MORE HRS OF SNOW ACROSS NE NC BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF AND ENDS THIS EVE. LTL IF ANY MEASURABLE SNOW XPCTD ACROSS XTREME SERN VA...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A DUSTING BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS XTREME SRN PART OF VA BCH AND CHESAPEAKE BASED ON LTST RADAR TRENDS. AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTM RANGED BTWN 1-2 INCHES ACROSS SRN TIER VA / NE NC CNTYS. BASED ON BANDING SEEN ON RADAR...MAY SEE UP TO ANTHR INCH BEFORE ALL SAID AND DONE ACROSS NE NC. SO...PLAN ON CANCELLING WRNG ACROSS NE NC AND REPLACING IT WITH AN ADVSRY THRU 7 PM. WILL CANCEL ALL ADVSRYS OVR SRN VA. CAA CONTS ON GUSTY N WNDS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT ARE XPCTD TO DMNSH AFTR MIDNITE AS STORM PUSHES FRTHR AWAY FROM RGN. SKIES CLR WITH TMPS FALLING INTO THE 15-20 DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS. WENT A DEGREE OR TWO LWR THAN GUID IN AREAS THAT GOT THE SNOW. NXT CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE THREAT OF BLACK ICE. ANY MELTING THAT DOES OCCUR NXT FEW HRS WILL LIKELY REFREEZE AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CNDTNS. WILL ISSUE SPS TO COVER THIS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... H5 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE SERN STATES WILL CONT THE COLD WX THRU ERLY TWED NITE. DESPITE NRLY FULL SUN...H85 TMPS SPRT READINGS TO STAY IN THE L-M30S WED. LOWS IN THE M20S-M30S WED NITE. RETURN FLOW BEGINS A NICE WRMUP ON THU AND FRI. WRMING H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS IN THE 40S THU AND 50S FRIDAY. XPCT CLDS TO INCRS FRI AHEAD ON NXT SYSTM. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LRGLY CONFLUENT/ZNL FLO ALOFT THROUGH THE XTNDD PD WL LIKELY RESULT IN CHALLENGING/LO CONFIDENCE PD OF WX (FCSTG) THROUGH ERY NEXT WK. STARTING OUT/RMNG "MILDER" FRI NGT INTO (1ST PT OF) SAT...B4 COLDER AMS SETTLES INTO THE RGN. 1ST CDFNT TO CRS THE FA LT FRI NGT/SAT...KPG POPS AOB 20% ATTM. POPS TO BE AOB 10% SAT NGT THROUGH SUN NGT AS WK SFC HI PRES PASSES OVRHD. AS STATED ABV...TMG OF SYSTEMS...AND AMT OF MSTR TRICKY IN UPCOMING PTRN (LT WKND THROUGH MID NEXT WK). WVY SFC FNTL BNDRY TO LINGER INVOF GULF STATES...WK WV OF LO PRES MVS EWD ACRS SE STATES SUN/MON...OFFSHR BY MON NGT. W/ COLDER AIR ACRS FA...PSBL MIXED PTYPE EVENT FOR MON...ESP INTR SXNS (AGN...TMG ISSUES PROBLEMATIC W/ ANY PCPN MENTION IN XTNDD PDS). NEXT WV OF MSTR PSBL BY MID NEXT WK. TEMPS AOA NRML FRI NGT...THEN SEASONABLE CHILL (RDGS AVGG CPL DEGS F BLO NRML) RETURNING FOR SAT THROUGH ERY NEXT WK. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PCPN IS BASICLY SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER AND CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT RUNS INTO MUCH DRIER AIR OVER VA. HAVE TEMPO IFR/MVFR ECG AND ORF THRU 00Z. NRTHERN SITES ARE VFR WITH SC/AC CIGS. WINDS GUSTY ALG THE CST WITH ORF AND ECG GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KT IN THE LAST HOUR. AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER OUT TO SEA...WE WILL SEE CLEARING CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BY WED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .MARINE... GALES RMNG UP FOR THE LWR BAY/SND...AND ADJCNT CSTL WTRS THROUGH ABT MDNGT...SCAS UP (THROUGH AT LEAST WED MRNG) ELSW. HV SEEN GUSTS TO ARND 40 KT INVOF CAPE HENRY...AND AT DUCK PAST FEW HRS. STM SYS SLO TO EXIT OVRNGT...FOLLOWED BY HI PRES RETURNING FOR WED/THU/FRI. WVS/SEAS WL BE SLO TO DCRS AS WELL THROUGH MIDDAY WED. GSTY NNW WNDS SLO TO SUBSIDE THROUGH WED MRNG...THEN SHIFT TO SW FOR THE REST OF THE WK (RMNG BLO SCAS THROUGH PD). WNDS BCM NNE OVR THE WKND...AND LIKELY LNG PD OF NNE WNDS THROUGH MID NEXT WK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-633-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652- 654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...CY MARINE...ALB