NOAA 95-43
Contact: Stephanie Kenitzer FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
(301) 713-0622 6/20/95
The National Weather Service has implemented a new hurricane forecast model that can predict the path of a hurricane with approximately 20 percent more accuracy than its predecessor -- a significant advancement in hurricane forecasting, the Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced today.
The new hurricane model was installed in June, just in time to advance forecasting for the 1995 hurricane season. Forecasters will use output from the new hurricane model, in conjunction with other guidance, to construct daily forecasts and warnings for hurricanes in the Atlantic, East Pacific and Central Pacific oceans.
"The new model is about more than just science and technology," said Ron McPherson, director of NWS' National Centers for Environmental Prediction. "This translates directly into saving lives and property and millions of dollars in evacuation costs. We expect this new model to result in more accurate forecasts of where a hurricane will strike and thus more precise estimates of coastal zones to be evacuated."
The new hurricane model was developed over the past two decades at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. The "GFDL Hurricane Model" has been tested rigorously over the past three years and has proven to provide more precise warnings of tropical storms, including Hurricane Emily (1993) and last year's Tropical Storm Gordon, according to NOAA scientists. For example, while other models predicted that Hurricane Emily would make landfall in the vicinity of Georgia, the new model correctly predicted that the hurricane would strike North Carolina's Outer Banks before veering back out to sea.
"This model exceeds the capabilities of any other model used to forecast hurricanes to date,รพ said Jerry Jarrell, deputy director of the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center. "We can be more precise and timely in our warnings and that will allow the public and the emergency community to take more appropriate actions."
The new model improves forecasts with its capability to give more accurate representations of the hurricane and atmospheric physics. The model will take approximately 20 minutes to run on the powerful Cray C90 supercomputer and will generate a 72-hour forecast. The speed and reliability of the Cray C90 makes it possible to produce more operational products and better calculate storm intensity and wind speed from the hurricane model. On-going development of the model will benefit from a similar Cray C90 to be installed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory this summer.
Computer modeling is the basis of all weather forecasts generated by the NWS. Atmospheric observations are collected and sent to various computer model systems 24 hours a day, every day of the year. Then, the Cray C90 supercomputer executes the model, which contains complex mathematical formulations representing the physics of the atmosphere and the underlying oceans, and forecasts how the weather pattern will change and the potential path of severe weather systems such as hurricanes.