000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150343
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JAN 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 7N87W 5N100W 6N110W 7N121W 8N131W
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS
FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 125W-134W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 82W-87W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN TWO RATHER LARGE SCALE FEATURES.
THE FIRST IS THE TAIL END OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
CENTERED OVER MID-WEST REGION OF THE UNITED STATES WHICH REACHES
INTO THE FAR EASTERN SECTION OF THE AREA TO N OF ABOUT 22N AND E
OF 118W. W OF THE TROUGH...THE AREA IS UNDER MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PRESENT N OF 22N WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CENTER OF 1023 MB
N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N131W. THE SECOND FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE
A RATHER EXTENSIVE LATITUDINAL DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS JUST W OF
THE REGION N OF 26N...WHILE IT STRETCHES ALONG 137W/138W FROM
7N TO 26N. A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING E IS ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS NEAR 16.5N137W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NEARING
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA...AND IS PRECEDED BY INCREASING SLY
WINDS AS NOTED IN A FEW 20 KT WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS OVER
THOSE WATERS.

DATA INFERRED FROM SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS SHOWS QUITE A LARGE
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO THE E OF THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH ALONG AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN
125W AND 136W. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD. MODERATE
TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ALONG AND W OF THE TROUGH AXIS
N OF 27N. THESE WINDS CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE FORM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS N TO WELL N OF THE REGION.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AND
WEAKEN JUST NW OF THE AREA OVER THE THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS ITS
DRIVING UPPER SUPPORT AND RELATED ENERGY PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE AREA TOWARDS THE GENERAL VICINITY OF ALASKA AS GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THIS SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FRONT AND THE VERY
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEMS THAT FOLLOW BEHIND IT
WILL BE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS GENERATED BY ATTENDANT DEEP LOW
PRES SYSTEMS THAT WILL ALSO PASS WELL TO THE N OF 30N OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 13-15 FT ENTERING THE FAR NW
CORNER BY LATE THU NIGHT...AND UP TO POSSIBLY 16 OR 17 FT BY FRI
NIGHT WITH SEAS ELSEWHERE RANGING 9-15 FT W OF 130W. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS UPCOMING SWELL EVENT CLOSELY WITH RESPECT TO
PROJECTED FORECAST HEIGHTS AND AREAL COVERAGE AS PORTRAYED IN
FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING
WNW IS EMBEDDED IN THE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NEAR
26N129W WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING SEWD THROUGH 21N119W TO 17N113W
TO NEAR 8N105W. MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW E OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES CONFLUENT ALONG 22N E OF 118W OR ALONG THE BASE OF THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A
JET STREAM BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF UP TO 75 KT ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE THIS TROUGH. POSSIBLE HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE IN
TRANSVERSE BANDING OF CIRRUS CLOUDS IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 20N E
OF THE 117W. THE CONFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INDUCING DRY STABLE AIR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 22N E OF THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH DESCRIBED IN FIRST PARAGRAPH. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA S OF 20N AND TO THE W
OF THE TROUGH ALONG 21N119W TO 17N113W TO 8N105W.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND MEXICO MAINTAINS A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST USHERING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF
30-40 KT INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THIS EVENING.
THESE WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EARLY EVENING...AND MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE
NEXT 12-18 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST 10M AND 30M MODEL WIND GUIDANCE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THESE WINDS MAY POSSIBLY REACH STORM FORCE AGAIN IN ABOUT
42-48 HOURS...BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER GULF SSTS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM OF
COLD AIR OVER TO ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT MIXING OVER THESE WATERS
FOR STORM FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP AT THAT TIME. WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY WATCH FOR CHANGES IN SSTS AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE AS
WELL AS STRENGTH OF HIGH PRES THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
LATER IN THE WEEK.

NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED
TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN INCREASE TO 30 KT
IN 36 HOURS AS STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING PRESSES SWD OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. THESE WINDS MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF ABOUT 16N W OF 110W.

$$
AGUIRRE

000
AXNT20 KNHC 150104
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

...CORRECTED WORD AND ATLC SECTION...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 3N20W 3N30W 2N40W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
3.5N-6N BETWEEN 13W-16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-6.5N BETWEEN 28W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SW LOUISIANA
NEAR 30N93W ENVELOPING THE SE CONUS AND THE ENTIRE GULF REGION.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS IS NOTED
OVER SE MEXICO INCLUDING MUCH OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
GULF. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING CONSIDERABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH FLORIDA. MID
TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE HIGH PRES OVER SW
LOUISIANA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS ANOTHER REINFORCING
COLD FRONT EXITS THE E AND SE U.S. AND MOVES INTO THE W ATLC.
STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THU THROUGH EARLY SAT PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE ATLC ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH
CENTRAL CUBA THEN CONTINUES SW AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO NORTHERN
HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PART OF CUBA AND THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUES TO BLOW
ACROSS THE BASIN DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A HIGH LOCATED NE OF AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE SEEN
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA. LOW/MID CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS COVER MUCH OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO
EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. SW FLOW ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH IS TRANSPORTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA INTO THE BAHAMAS AND THE W
ATLC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SINCE YESTERDAY...A VERY INTERESTING AND UNUSUAL WEATHER FEATURE
IS TAKING SHAPE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS EXHIBITING A WELL DEFINED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THIS SYSTEM IS GETTING THE ENERGY FROM
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WHILE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ENHANCING
THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS. THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED BETWEEN NOAA
BUOYS 41040 AND 41041. BASED ON THE ABOVE...A SFC TROUGH WILL
LIKELY BE ADDED ON THE 00Z SFC ANALYSIS. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE WWD UNDER THE TRADE WIND FLOW
AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRI AND THEN THE US/UK
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO FRI THROUGH SAT PRODUCING A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THOSE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N68W THEN CONTINUES SW CROSSING
THE BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SW TO S WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KT PREVAIL WHILE NLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE SEEN BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH SITUATED
W OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N38W. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE
PATTERN DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA.

$$
GR

000
AXNT20 KNHC 142345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 3N20W 3N30W 2N40W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
3.5N-6N BETWEEN 13W-16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-6.5N BETWEEN 28W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SW LOUISIANA
NEAR 30N93W ENVELOPING THE SE CONUS AND THE ENTIRE GULF REGION.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS IS NOTED
OVER SE MEXICO INCLUDING MUCH OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
GULF. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING CONSIDERABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH FLORIDA. MID
TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE HIGH PRES OVER SW
LOUISIANA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS ANOTHER REINFORCING
COLD FRONT EXITS THE E AND SE U.S. AND MOVES INTO THE W ATLC.
STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THU THROUGH EARLY SAT PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE ATLC ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH
CENTRAL CUBA THEN CONTINUES SW AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO NORTHERN
HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PART OF CUBA AND THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUES TO BLOW
ACROSS THE BASIN DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A HIGH LOCATED NE OF AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE SEEN
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA. LOW/MID CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS COVER MUCH OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO
EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. SW FLOW ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH IS TRANSPORTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA INTO THE BAHAMAS AND THE W
ATLC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SINCE YESTERDAY...A VERY INTERESTING AN UNUSUAL WEATHER FEATURE
IS TAKING SHAPE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS EXHIBITING A WELL DEFINED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THIS SYSTEM IS GETTING THE ENERGY FROM
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WHILE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ENHANCING
THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS. THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED BETWEEN NOAA
BUOYS 41040 AND 41041. BASED ON THE ABOVE...A SFC TROUGH WILL
LIKELY BE ADDED ON THE 00Z SFC ANALYSIS. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE WWD UNDER THE TRADE WIND FLOW
AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRI AND THEN THE US/UK
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO FRI THROUGH SAT PRODUCING A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THOSE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N68W THEN CONTINUES SW CROSSING
THE BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SW TO S WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KT PREVAIL WHILE NLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE SEEN BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH SITUATED
W OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N38W. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE
PATTERN DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA.

$$
GR

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142206
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JAN 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 8N86W 6N91W 6N102W 7N111W 7N122W
7N134W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W-135W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 79W-82W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN TWO RATHER LARGE SCALE FEATURES.
THE FIRST IS THE TAIL END OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
CENTERED OVER MID-WEST REGION OF THE UNITED STATES WHICH REACHES
INTO THE FAR EASTERN SECTION OF THE AREA TO N OF ABOUT 22N AND E
OF 118W. W OF THE TROUGH...THE AREA IS UNDER MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PRESENT N OF 22N WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CENTER NEAR
32N125W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE TO WELL NW OF THE
REGION. THE SECOND FEATURE IS A RATHER EXTENSIVE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH DIGGING SWD JUST W OF THE AREA ALONG 142W IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRES WELL NW OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
IS ALSO WELL W OF THE AREA TO THE NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
HOWEVER...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS BEING
OBSERVED JUST TO THE NW OF THE AREA AS REVEALED IN SHIP
OBSERVATIONS FROM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW OBSERVATIONS
OF 20 KT S WINDS ARE NOW BEING NOTED IN THE FAR NW CORNER OF
THE AREA. DATA INFERRED FROM SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS SHOWS
MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS NOW
ENCROACHING TO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. THESE
WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NWD TO THE GENERAL AREA OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS N OF THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO STAY N OF THE AREA. THE MAIN
PROBLEM...HOWEVER...WILL BE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS GENERATED BY
THE PARENT LOW OF THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE INTO THE
NW SECTION OF THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM HEIGHTS OF 15 OR 15 FT IN THE FAR NW CORNER.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING
WESTWARD IS EMBEDDED IN THE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NEAR
25N129W WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING SE THROUGH 21N119W TO 16N112W
TO NEAR 8N105W. MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW E OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES CONFLUENT ALONG 22N E OF 118W OR ALONG THE BASE OF THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A
JET STREAM BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF UP TO 75 KT ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE THIS TROUGH. POSSIBLE HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE IN
TRANSVERSE BANDING OF CIRRUS CLOUDS IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 20N E
OF THE 117W. THE CONFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INDUCING DRY STABLE AIR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 22N E OF
135W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA S OF
20N AND TO THE W OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND MEXICO HAS CREATED A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST BRINGING MINIMAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS HAVE SINCE
DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY TO GALE FORCE AS OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THAT STRAIGHT THROUGH 48 HOURS
WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEEDS AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST 10M AND
30M MODEL WIND GUIDANCE. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THAT
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF
THE WEEK.

NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED
TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN INCREASE TO 30 KT
IN 48 HOURS AS STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CHANNEL W ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGING PRESSES SWD OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. ELSEWHERE HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF ABOUT 16N W OF
110W.

$$
AGUIRRE

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141657
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 3N20W 2N30W 2N40W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
1N-2N BETWEEN 7W-12W...FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 12W-176W...AND FROM
2N-4N BETWEEN 17W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-4N BETWEEN 31W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W. FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 24N WHILE BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE S OF 24N. 10-15 KT NE SURFACE FLOW
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40`S OVER THE
NORTH GULF STATES AND IN THE 60`S OVER S FLORIDA AND S TEXAS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE N GULF N OF 24N WHILE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE S GULF. EXPECT SHOWERS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE ALONG 22N78W
17N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AREAS OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N67W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF 80W WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 80W.
EXPECT...THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR 22N78W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH 20 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. A 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 37N40W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS N OF 20N BETWEEN W
AFRICA TO 60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 55W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 13N50W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA W OF 40W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC FROM THE EQ-22N E OF 50W.

$$
FORMOSA

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141603
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JAN 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ ALONG 06N77W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS W OF 128W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC STORM WARNING KEPT FOR ANOTHER 6 HRS AS SHIP
REPORT INDICATE CONTINUATION OF 50 KT WINDS...NEVERTHELESS
EXPECTED TO GET BELOW STORM FORCE WITHIN 6 HRS AND CONTINUE AT
GALE STRENGTH FOR 18 HRS MORE AS GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRES SYSTEM
MOVES E RELAXING GRADIENT.  SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR FOLLOWS
WITHIN 36 HRS KICKING YET ANOTHER EPISODE OF GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS WHICH COULD EVEN REACH STORM FORCE AGAIN.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG NE WINDS TRICKLING FROM THE CARIBBEAN
SEA LIKELY TO GET STRONGER WITHIN 48 HRS AS SURGE OF COLD AIR
ENTERS NW CARIBBEAN AND LAST WELL BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING 140W FORCING
BROAD RIDGE OVER E PAC EASTWARD DECREASING PRES GRADIENT OVER SW
CONUS.  THIS IN TURN SHOULD DIMINISH NW WINDS OVER GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BELOW 20 KT.

ELSEWHERE...
AS BROAD RIDGE INCHES ITS WAY E...PREVIOUS MODERATE TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS DIMINISH AND NOT EXPECTED BACK TILL AFTER NEXT RIDGE
BUILDS FOLLOWING ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT.  THAT SHOULD BE
WELL BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...RIDGE WILL NOT SHIFT
ENOUGH OVER NEXT 48 HRS TO ALLOW LONGWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTING COLD
FRONT TO MOVE INTO E PAC WATERS.  ONLY LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW CORNER OF BASIN.

$$
WALLY BARNES

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N11W TO 3N20W TO 2N30W 2N39W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S48W.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1.5N TO 2N
BETWEEN 8W AND 10W...FROM 5.5N TO 8N BETWEEN 12W AND 16W...
AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 17W AND 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN
20W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND BEYOND 32N75W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
IS NORTHWEST OF 32N74W 26N90W 24N98W...WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SAME LINE. ONE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...CROSSING
WESTERN CUBA...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO BELIZE AND THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE
SOUTHERNMOST PART OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT REACHES SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED ITS WAY SOUTHWARD FROM
EASTERN TEXAS/LOUISIANA TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA EAST
OF 80W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 17N49W TO 12N51W TO 9N60W. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW FOR THE TROUGH
EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ENDS UP
BECOMING SWALLOWED UP INTO THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE AREA. A TINY BIT OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO GULF OF
MEXICO COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...REACHING
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST RANGING
FROM 20 TO 30 KTS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FT ARE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS FROM 10N TO 18N EAST OF 82W. THE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE RELATED TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE SEMI-PERMANENT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 34N44W TO 25N54W TOWARD PUERTO
RICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA
EXTENDING FROM 32N28W TO 24N38W. 28N25W TO 20N42W TO 14N50W TO
9N60W. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 17N49W
TO 12N51W TO 9N60W. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH...FROM 4N IN THE GUYANAS AND VENEZUELA TO
30N BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN
30W AND 50W AND 80W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS UNDER UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ARE ON TOP OF LOW CLOUDS...SOUTH OF 25N
EAST OF 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 34N15W TO 31N25W TO
A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N43W TO 28N60W TO 22N70W.

$$
MT

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140951
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 06N77W TO 06N95W TO 08N110W TO 09N122W TO
05N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM
S AND 120 NM N OF AXIS E OF 87W WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

NEAR SHORE...
THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0410 UTC SHOWS WINDS TO 45 KT IN THE GULF OF
TEHAUNTEPEC...BUT CONSIDERING THE ASCAT RUNS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
HIGH WIND EVENTS...A STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS MORNING.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO A MINIMAL GALE WED
EVENING THROUGH THU MORNING.  ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHAUNTEPEC THU AFTERNOON...
INCREASING THE WINDS BACK TO STORM FORCE OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT.

TO THE SOUTH...PAPAGAYO CONTINUES TO SEE THE BLEED THROUGH OF
EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN.  THE QUIKSCAT PASS
FROM 2344 UTC SHOWS WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH A FEW
RETURNS REACHING 25 TO 30 KT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE FINALLY EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE BELOW 20 KT THU AFTERNOON AFTER A LONG PERIOD OF
ELEVATED WINDS INCLUDING GALE CONDITIONS.


ELSEWHERE...
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN THU/FRI AS
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW BREAKS OFF FROM THE TROUGH OVER THE SW
U.S. AND MIGRATES WEST INTO FAR NE WATERS.  THIS LOW WILL HELP
SHOVE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH OFF THE CA COAST FARTHER
NORTHWARD...HELPING TO BREAK DOWN THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER N
WATERS.  HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL NOT SHIFT ENOUGH OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO ALLOW THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM TO
MOVE INTO NW WATERS.  ONLY THE SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS BY THU.

FARTHER SOUTH...THE EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AROUND THE
RIDGE IS CURRENTLY BEING BROKEN DOWN OVER W WATERS BY A MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N135W.  TRADE WIND FLOW HAS DIMINISHED
TO 20 KT OVER W WATERS BETWEEN 05N AND 20N AND IS EXPECTED TO
FURTHER DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ON THU MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH FROM 20N120W TO 00N115W WILL CONTINUE TO
BREAK DOWN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ WHERE MOISTURE IS READILY AVAILABLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK

000
AXNT20 KNHC 140544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 3N20W TO 3N35W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N10W...FROM 4N TO 5.5N
BETWEEN 15W AND 17W...FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA ALONG 30N. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO NORTH FLORIDA
NEAR 29N. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
NORTHWEST OF 30N80W 25N90W 23N98W...WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SAME LINE.
ONE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO SOUTH FLORIDA TO
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF A SECOND COLD FRONT
IS NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PUSHING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE BEING
EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA EAST
OF 80W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 14N50W TO 9N60W. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW FOR THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ENDS UP BECOMING
SWALLOWED UP INTO THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN
THE AREA. A TINY BIT OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO GULF OF MEXICO
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...REACHING THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST RANGING
FROM 20 TO 30 KTS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FT ARE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS FROM 10N TO 18N EAST OF 82W.
THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE RELATED TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE
SEMI-PERMANENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N25W TO 20N42W
TO 14N50W TO 9N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO 20N
BETWEEN 35W AND 50W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH...FROM 4N IN THE GUYANAS AND VENEZUELA TO
30N BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN
30W AND 50W AND 80W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS UNDER UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ARE ON TOP OF LOW CLOUDS...FROM 4N
TO 26N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 53W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N20W TO 30N42W TO 26N63W
TO 23N71W.

$$
MT

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140345
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JAN 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 6N86W 6N95W 8N110W 9N120W 6N135W
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 82W-86W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN TWO RATHER LARGE SCALE FEATURES.
THE FIRST IS THE TAIL END OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
CENTERED OVER MID-WEST REGION OF THE UNITED STATES WHICH REACHES
INTO THE FAR EASTERN SECTION OF THE AREA TO N OF ABOUT 22N AND E
OF 118W. W OF THE TROUGH...THE AREA IS UNDER MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PRESENT N OF 22N WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CENTER NEAR
32N125W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE TO WELL NW OF THE
REGION. THE SECOND FEATURE IS A RATHER EXTENSIVE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH DIGGING SWD JUST W OF THE AREA ALONG 142W IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRES WELL NW OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
IS ALSO WELL W OF THE AREA TO THE NW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
HOWEVER...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS BEING
OBSERVED JUST TO THE NW OF THE AREA AS REVEALED IN SHIP
OBSERVATIONS FROM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DATA INFERRED FROM SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS SHOWS MODERATE TO
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS NOW ENCROACHING TO
THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. THESE WINDS ARE
TRANSPORTING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS NWD TO THE GENERAL AREA OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE MAIN
ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS N OF THE AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
STAY N OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM...HOWEVER...WILL BE LONG
PERIOD NW SWELLS GENERATED BY THE PARENT LOW OF THIS SYSTEM ARE
FORECAST TO MIGRATE INTO THE NW SECTION OF THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM HEIGHTS OF 15 OR 15 FT IN THE
FAR NW CORNER.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED
NEAR 25N129W WITH A TROUGH SE THROUGH 21N125W TO 16N122W TO
12N119W TO 8N115W  TO 7N108W. MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW E OF
THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CONFLUENT ALONG 22N E OF 118W OR ALONG
THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART
OF THE AREA. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 60-80 KT
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE THIS TROUGH. POSSIBLE HIGH LEVEL
TURBULENCE IN TRANSVERSE BANDING OF CIRRUS CLOUDS IS NOTED FROM
10N TO 20N E OF THE 117W. THE CONFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INDUCING DRY STABLE AIR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF
22N E OF 135W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA S OF 20N AND TO THE W OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MEXICO IS CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT JUST INLAND THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THIS EVENING. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO OCCUR IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING TONIGHT AND ENDING
BY WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LATEST MODEL WIND
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THESE CONDITIONS MAY INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

NE WINDS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS
AS STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CHANNEL W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.
ELSEWHERE HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF ABOUT 17N W OF 110W.

$$
AGUIRRE

000
AXNT20 KNHC 132352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 2N30W 3N40W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 22W-27W...AND WITHIN 100 NM N OF AXIS
BETWEEN 27W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 5N15W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 28N81W 23N86W 19N90W. A WELL DEFINED
BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS...SOME WITH HEAVIER RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE U.S. REVEALS
THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO AFFECTING
THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS FRONT WAS REINFORCED THIS AFTERNOON BY A
DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPING QUICKLY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SE GULF.
THESE MERGED FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE
EXTREME SE GULF AND THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS BRIEFLY TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE FAR SW BAY OF CAMPECHE. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG N TO NE
SURFACE WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40`S AND 50`S OVER THE N GULF STATES
UNDER CLEAR SKIES WHILE TEMPERATURES S OF THE COLD FRONT REMAIN
IN THE 70`S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH SUPPORTS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO LOUISIANA CLIPPING THE NW CORNER OF
THE GULF INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ARE ADVECTING ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE EPAC ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MID/UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF AREA
AND THE SEMI-PERMANENT SFC LOW OVER COLOMBIA/PANAMA IS STILL
PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. AS
USUAL...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE
AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS SHOWED ELY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT. CLOUDS
ARE ON INCREASE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY WEDNESDAY. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...WITH AXIS FROM
WESTERN VENEZUELA TO HISPANIOLA AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME CLOUDINESS OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CUBA. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS DOMINATES THE E CARIBBEAN
AND VENEZUELA COURTESY OF THIS RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N77W THEN CONTINUES
SW CROSSING CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
NOTED OVER THE BAHAMAS. JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SW TO S WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KT PREVAIL WHILE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE SEEN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH
SITUATED NEAR 34N23W. ANOTHER 1027 MB SFC HIGH IS NEAR 28N54W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-65W. ALOFT...A
RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE AREA. THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE DEEP TROPICS
WITH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH ALMOST REACHING THE COAST OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC IS HELPING TO INDUCE A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WHICH IS
AFFECTING MUCH OF THE TROPICS PARTICULARLY BETWEEN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND 45W. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE EWD UNDER THE TRADE WIND FLOW AFFECTING THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THEN THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

$$
GR

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132205
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 5N90W 7N100W 8N110W 8N121W 7N130W
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 81W-85W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE CURRENT PATTERN IS DESCRIBED BY MAINLY TOW FEATURES. THE
FIRST IS THE TAIL END OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CENTERED
OVER MID-WEST REGION OF THE UNITED STATES WITH ITS TAIL END
REACHING SW TO THE FAR EASTERN SECTION OF THE AREA N OF ABOUT
22N AND E OF 118W. W OF THE TROUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS PRESENT N OF 22N WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 31N124W. A
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE WELL NW OF THE REGION. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 21N125W TO 16N122W TO 12N119W
TO 8N115W TO 7N108W. MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES CONFLUENT ALONG 22N E OF 118W OR ALONG THE BASE
OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 60-80 KT ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THE THIS TROUGH. POSSIBLE HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE IN
TRANSVERSE BANDING OF CIRRUS CLOUDS IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 20N E
OF THE 117W. THE CONFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INDUCING DRY STABLE AIR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 22N E OF
135W. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
OBSERVED IN SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS TO COVER THE AREA W OF 135W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA S OF 20N AND
W OF 120W.

AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG 1036 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. IT IS BRINGING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESULTING
IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC. THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STORM STRENGTH EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN DIMINISH BACK TO GALE FORCE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. NE
20 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. HIGH PRES COVERS THE
AREA N OF ABOUT 17N W OF 115W.

$$
AGUIRRE

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131723
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N16W 4N30W 3N40W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 10W-12W...
AND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 25W-28W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 28W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 29N80W 26N86W 20N89W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXTEND 120 NM N OF THIS FRONT. A NEW COLD FRONT EXTENDS
S FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W TO 26N93W TO THE NORTHERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 22N94W. NO CONVECTION IS ALONG THIS FRONT.
BOTH FRONTS ARE MOVING SE HOWEVER THE NEW FRONT IS MOVING FASTER
AND WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE ORIGINAL FRONT. 20-25 KT
WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY N OF THE NEW FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N W OF 94W. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE 40`S AND 50`S OVER THE N GULF STATES WHILE
TEMPERATURES S OF THE ORIGINAL FRONT REMAIN IN THE 70`S.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG N TO NE SURFACE WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
E PACIFIC REGION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. EXPECT BOTH FRONTS TO MERGE WITHIN 12 HOURS AND BE OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE ENTIRE GULF
TOMORROW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AREAS OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER THE AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
80W WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N77W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH 20 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N54W. ANOTHER 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N22W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ONE HIGH CENTER
TO THE OTHER WITH MOSTLY FAIR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-60W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA BETWEEN 10W-30W.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1805 UTC TUE JAN 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS ALONG 6N77W 5N95W 8N120W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
WITH AXIS ALONG 135W. A 90 KT JET STREAM IS JUST W OF THE AREA
WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH TRANSVERSE BANDING...INDICATING POSSIBLE
HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE MOVING TROUGH THE RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 25N128W WITH TROUGH FROM
THE CIRCULATION TO 12N120W 5N110W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS NE OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 32N122W. MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE AREA N OF 24N E
OF 135W.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM SE TEXAS ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 25N115W. A 90-100
KT JET STREAM IS S OF OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
SW WINDS SE OF THE TROUGH ARE ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE ITCZ ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO.

STRONG 1036 MB HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO PRODUCING A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHAUNTEPEC. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 120W.

$$
DGS

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W TO 5N20W TO 4N30W TO 3N40W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
NEAR 2S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 9W AND 14W...
AND SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 16W AND 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD...FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.S.A. INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A SHALLOW STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM
LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS FRONT IS UNDERNEATH
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS PREVALENT EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT FOR THE COAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO MEXICO
NEAR 24N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS. THE
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES NORTHEAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
FLORIDA...TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 31N81W...BECOMING WARM
FROM 31N81W TO 30N71W...AND THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N71W
NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 32N60W. GALE-FORCE WINDS OR FASTER ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AT LEAST TWO MORE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 13N52W TO 12N68W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA WEST OF 70W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 32N52W.
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA AND THE SEMI-PERMANENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE
COMPARATIVELY FASTEST WINDS USUALLY ARE NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH WESTERN
CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE TUESDAY.
THE SAME FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS
ON WEDNESDAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N31W TO 21N41W TO
13N52W INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N68W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH...
FROM 5N IN GUYANA AND VENEZUELA TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 29N44W TO 28N60W TO
27N74W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF
21N BETWEEN 24W AND 50W.

$$
MT

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130952
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
08230 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ LIES ALONG A LINE FROM 06N77W TO 07N100W TO 09N101W TO
07N125W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND
WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 83W TO 86W...WITHIN 75 NM S OF AXIS
FROM 94W TO 97W...AND WITHIN 150 NM S AND 75 NM N OF AXIS FROM
104W AND 109W.


...DISCUSSION...

NEAR SHORE...
THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0010 UTC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE GALE
WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE THIS MORNING AND BEGIN TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR POURS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHAUNTEPEC.  WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN AT STORM FORCE TILL MID DAY WED.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO MINIMAL GALE BY EARLY THU ONLY TO COME
BACK UP WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY FLOW FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAVE SUBSIDED TO 15 TO 20 KT
ACCORDING TO THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0250 UTC...BUT THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE MODESTLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC...INCREASING THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE LOW PRESSURE OVER
PANAMA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0146 UTC OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOWS
THAT WINDS REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 KT THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST OF THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL...BUT THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRES CENTER IS NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR THE RETURN OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE REGION.

ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 150 NM OF
12N115W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 11N104W.  THIS CONVECTION IS
SUSTAINED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT OF A WEAKENING WESTERLY JET MAX AND ITS
INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO ITS NORTH.  THE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE JET MAX WEAKENS
BELOW 70 KT.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST W OF FORECAST WATERS AND E OF
HAWAII WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS IT IS OVERTAKEN BY A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW.  SOME OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD TROUGH WILL BE SHED TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVE INTO THE BROAD...WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN FORECAST
WATERS.  THE ENHANCEMENT OF THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP
TO WEAKEN THE DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW HERE...WITH TRADE WINDS
AT THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE
BELOW 8 FT HERE ON WED MORNING.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK

000
AXNT20 KNHC 130554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W TO 5N20W TO 4N30W TO 3N40W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
NEAR 2S48W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N
TO 4N BETWEEN 17W AND 24W...AND FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 27W
AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 24W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF BERMUDA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD...FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.S.A. INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS
COLD FRONTS THAT STILL ARE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE TEXAS
AND MUCH MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH. A SHALLOW STATIONARY FRONT
STRETCHES FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS
FRONT IS UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT
IS PREVALENT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
NORTHEAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA...TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 29N80W...BECOMING WARM FROM 29N80W TO 29N74W...AND THEN
AS A COLD FRONT FROM 29N74W THROUGH 30N70W AND NORTHEASTWARD
BEYOND BERMUDA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO
THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT LEAST
TWO MORE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 15N52W TO 13N68W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA WEST OF 70W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 32N53W.
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA AND THE SEMI-PERMANENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE
COMPARATIVELY FASTEST WINDS USUALLY ARE NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH WESTERN
CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE TUESDAY.
THE SAME FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS
ON WEDNESDAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N37W TO 15N52W
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N68W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH...FROM
6N IN GUYANA AND VENEZUELA TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...
AND FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 28N61W TO 27N74W.

$$
MT

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130322
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JAN 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS ALONG 6N76W 5N91W 9N112W 5N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 96W AND
110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N
TO 13N BETWEEN 110W TO 119W.

...DISCUSSION...
NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN TWO UPPER RIDGES EXTENDS INTO
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N135W TO
25N126W. THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE S OF THE TROUGH COVERS THE AREA
W OF 128W. VERY BROAD UPPER HIGH IS TO THE NE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ANCHORED NEAR 39N128W COVERING THE AREA N OF 26N W OF
110W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERS
THE AREA N OF 23N TO OVER BAJA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS E OF THE BROAD UPPER HIGH
AND EXTENDS S TO OVER N MEXICO. SLY UPPER FLOW S OF MEXICO E OF
110W COMBINED WITH THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT S OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 120W
AND 145W ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH OFF THE NW U.S. COAST. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER N MEXICO AND IS MAINTAINING A STRONG
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC.

$$
WALLACE

000
AXNT20 KNHC 122341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 4N30W 3N40W THEN EQUATOR AT
50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN
27W-40W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN
15W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND THE GULF WATERS ALONG 26N82W 25N90W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. A WIDE BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. DOPPLER RADAR
REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND COASTAL WATERS
INCLUDING ALSO THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE REINFORCED TUE BY A SECOND COLD FRONT...THAT
WILL PUSH QUICKLY ACROSS THE NW GULF EARLY TUE MORNING AND MERGE
WITH THE STALLING FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE
EXTREME W CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY EVENING. NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
BLOWING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GAP WIND EVENT WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE EPAC REGION. IN FACT...AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS
INDICATED NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE SW
PORTION OF THE GULF. SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS ARE ALSO OBSERVED OVER
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF REGION. THESE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE AHEAD OF A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF AREA
AND THE SEMI-PERMANENT SFC LOW OVER COLOMBIA/PANAMA IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE ACROSS THE BASIN. AS USUAL...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS COVERS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA THEN
TURNING SE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING
AROUND A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA NWD ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND 32N55W. MODERATE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE E CARIBBEAN COURTESY OF
THIS RIDGE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH WESTERN
CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TUE THEN WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
CUBA TO HONDURAS ON WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N71W THEN CONTINUES
SW TO SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA CROSSING JUST SOUTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A ROPE CLOUD DELINEATES THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT OVER THE W ATLC. JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SW TO S WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KT PREVAIL WHILE NE WINDS OF AROUND 15 KT ARE SEEN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SFC RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH SITUATED
WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N33W. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EWD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED
BETWEEN 35W-65W. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES
THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE DEEP TROPICS WITH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
REACHING 10N58W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS THAT COVERS MUCH OF
THE E ATLC FROM THE ITCZ ALL THE WAY N TO AROUND 32N.

$$
GR

000
AXNT20 KNHC 122338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 4N30W 3N40W THEN EQUATOR AT
50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN
27W-40W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN
15W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND THE GULF WATERS ALONG 26N82W 25N90W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. A WIDE BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. DOPPLER RADAR
REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND COASTAL WATERS
INCLUDING ALSO THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE REINFORCED TUE BY A SECOND COLD FRONT...THAT
WILL PUSH QUICKLY ACROSS THE NW GULF EARLY TUE MORNING AND MERGE
WITH THE STALLING FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE
EXTREME W CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY EVENING. NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
BLOWING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GAP WIND EVENT WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE EPAC REGION. IN FACT...AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS
INDICATED NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE SW
PORTION OF THE GULF. SIMILAR SPEED WINDS ARE ALSO OBSERVED OVER
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF REGION. THESE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE AHEAD OF A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF AREA
AND THE SEMI-PERMANENT SFC LOW OVER COLOMBIA/PANAMA IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE ACROSS THE BASIN. AS USUAL...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS COVERS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA THEN
TURNING SE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING
AROUND A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA NWD ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND 32N55W. MODERATE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE E CARIBBEAN COURTESY OF
THIS RIDGE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH WESTERN
CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TUE THEN WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
CUBA TO HONDURAS ON WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N71W THEN CONTINUES
SW TO SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA CROSSING JUST SOUTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A ROPE CLOUD DELINEATES THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT OVER THE W ATLC. JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SW TO S WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KT PREVAIL WHILE NE WINDS OF AROUND 15 KT ARE SEEN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SFC RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH SITUATED
WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N33W. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EWD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED
BETWEEN 35W-65W. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES
THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE DEEP TROPICS WITH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
REACHING 10N58W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS THAT COVERS MUCH OF
THE E ATLC FROM THE ITCZ ALL THE WAY N TO AROUND 32N.

$$
GR

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122130
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS ALONG 6N77W 8N84W 5N91W 9N112W 5N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 99W AND
110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 100W
TO 118W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N TO 8N E OF 86W.

...DISCUSSION...
NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN TWO UPPER RIDGES EXTENDS INTO
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N138W TO
25N126W. THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE S OF THE TROUGH COVERS THE AREA
W OF 129W. VERY BROAD UPPER HIGH IS TO THE NE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ANCHORED NEAR 40N127W COVERING THE AREA N OF 26N W OF
110W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERS
THE AREA N OF 23N TO OVER BAJA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS E OF THE BROAD UPPER HIGH
AND EXTENDS S TO OVER N MEXICO. SLY UPPER FLOW S OF MEXICO E OF
110W COMBINED WITH THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT S OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 15N BETWEEN 120W
AND 145W ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH OFF THE NW U.S. COAST. A
1032 MB SURFACE HIGH INLAND OVER N MEXICO IS MAINTAINING A
STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WITH THE PASSAGE
OF FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC.

$$
WALLACE

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 2N20W 3N40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR
EQ50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N
BETWEEN 23W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 28N80W 24N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 22N93W 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONTS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N
OF THE FRONTS WITH 15-25 KT NE WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
40`S AND 50`S OVER THE N GULF STATES WHILE TEMPERATURES S OF THE
FRONT REMAIN IN THE 70`S. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG N TO NE SURFACE
WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING
IN GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS
AND BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE GULF IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AREAS OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER THE AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
80W WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N73W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH 20 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N38W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE
HIGH TO E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N73W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
BETWEEN 35W-70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 55W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-55W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA BETWEEN 10W-30W. CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E
ATLANTIC E OF 35W.

$$
FORMOSA

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121513
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS ALONG 4N77W 7N85W 5N90W 8N120W 5N140W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 98W AND 112W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA FROM 32N140W TO 29N133W. S OF THE TROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS S OF 28N ALONG 138W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH
DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE AREA W OF 130W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
E OF THE RIDGE WITH AXIS 22N128W TO 7N117W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W WITH A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH E OF THE RIDGE. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW TEXAS ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 25N120W. A
90-120 KT JET STREAM IS SE OF THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA SE OF THE TROUGH.

STATIONARY FRONT OVER WESTERN MEXICO IS DISSIPATING...HOWEVER
A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER NE MEXICO MAINTAINING A STRONG
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC. OTHERWISE BROAD
RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 11N W OF 120W.

$$
DGS

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121115
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 2N21W 2N31W 2N40W AND INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 1S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N
BETWEEN 21W-31W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 32W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF
REGION AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS MOVES EASTWARD. A
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
N FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N82W TO 24N88W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 21N93W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N92W. THIS FRONT IS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT ALONG AND E OF 91W AND IS
STATIONARY W OF 91W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WITHIN
60 NM SE OF THIS FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED IN THE
SW QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM LOCATED OVER THE SE
CONUS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME ENTIRELY STATIONARY OVER
THE GULF TODAY AND THEN BECOME REINFORCED TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT. INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS...AS
WELL AS RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...ARE PRESENT TO
THE NW OF THIS FRONT. ALSO...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING PORTIONS
OF THE SE GULF...THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 36N42W IS RESULTING IN E TO SE
SURFACE WINDS OF 10 KT. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG N TO NE SURFACE
WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING
IN GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM N VENEZUELA NEAR 10N70W TO
16N76W TO 21N82W. SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE ARE RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN...DEEP MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD TO THE
W OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...WHICH IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 15N-21N W OF 81W. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE TRADE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 36N42W MOVES
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA ON WEDNESDAY AND REACH A LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO
HONDURAS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT STALLS THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE W ATLC
AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS MOVES EASTWARD. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT IN THE W ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO 32N76W TO 30N79W TO THE N
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N82W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE
COLD FRONT. FARTHER TO THE E...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ARE RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW
AND CENTRAL ATLC. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS BEING ENHANCED AROUND THE
1028 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 36N42W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A REINFORCING SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY. SW WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS N OF
29N WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. FARTHER TO THE E...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT WITH AN
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N51W TO 27N42W TO 32N38W TO NE OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N48W TO 30N40W TO 32N36W TO NE OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH.
ALSO...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 24W-30W AND FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN
26W-30W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT
WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 5N7W TO 3N20W TO 1N32W. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE NEAR THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

$$
COHEN

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120931
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LIES ALONG A LINE FROM 03N77W
TO 07N100W TO 08N120W TO 05N133W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 210 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS
FROM 95W TO 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

NEAR SHORE...
BOTH THE 0212 UTC QUIKSCAT AND 0456 ASCAT PASS OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA CONFIRM THAT THE GALE EVENT THERE HAS ENDED.  THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS STILL SUPPORTS WINDS
TO 30 KT IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO 20 KT
OR LESS.

THE COLD FRONT WHICH INITIATED THE GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA IS NOW BROKEN OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW PASSING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHAUNTEPEC.  BOTH THE 0034 UTC QUIKSCAT AND 0312
ASCAT PASSES CONFIRM THE GALE...WITH QUIKSCAT SHOWING WINDS TO
45 KT. WINDS HERE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW STORM FORCE
THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TO A MARGINAL GALE BY
EARLY TUE MORNING...BUT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUE AFTERNOON...BRINGING
WINDS BACK UP TO THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE TUE NIGHT AND FINALLY
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE WED/EARLY THU.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO CONTINUES TO SEE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT
RANGE ACCORDING TO THE 0036 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS.  UNFORTUNATELY...
THE MAIN REGION OF HIGH WINDS MISSED THE QUIKSCAT SWATH AREA
WHILE THE ENTIRE REGION WAS MISSED BY THE MOST RECENT ASCAT
PASS.  HOWEVER...WITH STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BLEED THROUGH THE PASSES IN SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED.

ELSEWHERE...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR 30N140W TOWARD 12N130W
TO 10N115W AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET WESTERLY JET MAX CAN BE FOUND
ON THE SW SIDE OF THIS TROUGH S OF 06N.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THIS JET MAX WHERE IT LIES CLOSEST
TO THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 210 NM N AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS FROM 95W TO 115W. THE
TROUGH AND JET MAX SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY THE 1041 MB HIGH
NEAR 44N130W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
HIGH MIGRATES NORTHWARD AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE TAIL OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT THE MOMENT SHEDS WESTWARD...BREAKING UP THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGING OVER N WATERS.  THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW NEAR
30N140W WILL WEAKEN AS IT IS SLOWLY LIFTED NORTHWARD ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.  THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS SLOW MOVING AND NOT EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...NW SWELL WILL BE
ON THE RISE BY EARLY TUE MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT AND
HIGHER OVER FAR NW WATERS BY WED.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK

000
AXNT20 KNHC 120530
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N21W 2N31W 1N42W AND INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 5N
BETWEEN 20W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 6N
BETWEEN 36W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF
REGION AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS MOVES EASTWARD. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE N FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 30N82W TO 24N91W ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO S MEXICO NEAR 19N95W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING
ENHANCED IN THE SW QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM
LOCATED OVER THE SE CONUS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
STATIONARY AND THEN BECOME REINFORCED MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF ON TUESDAY. INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS...AS WELL AS COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS...ARE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SW
GULF. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SE
GULF...THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N46W IS RESULTING IN E TO SE SURFACE WINDS
OF 10 KT OR LESS. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG N TO NE SURFACE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BLOW THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION BEGINNING
AT 12/0600 UTC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM N VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W TO
17N80W TO 21N85W. SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE ARE RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN...DEEP MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD TO THE
W OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...WHICH IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF 20N W OF 81W. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE TRADE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AS THE 1028
MB SURFACE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N46W MOVES
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA LATE TUESDAY AND REACH A LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO
HONDURAS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT STALLS THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE W ATLC
AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS MOVES EASTWARD. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT IN THE W ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM SE OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N80W TO THE N FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 30N82W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG AND WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. TO THE E OF
THIS FRONT...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE RESULTING IN
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW AND CENTRAL ATLC.
THIS SUBSIDENCE IS BEING ENHANCED AROUND THE 1028 MB SURFACE
HIGH NEAR 34N46W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MERGE
WITH A REINFORCING SURFACE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. SW WINDS TO
GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS N OF 29N WITHIN 360 NM E
OF THE COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ALSO...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 17N BETWEEN 25W-48W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N49W TO
29N44W TO 31N39W AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
31N39W TO 32N35W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ALSO...ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 26N-31N
BETWEEN 17W-28W AND FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 28W-37W. ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 5N8W TO 2N24W TO 1N31W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NEAR THIS
UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

$$
COHEN