East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO 
06N110W TO 05N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ALONG THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 128W...AND 
BETWEEN 135W AND 138W.

OTHER CONVECTION NORTH OF THE ITCZ...SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

TRADES...
AN AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE THIS WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE W OF 126W. A 
CORRESPONDING 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N143W. NE 
TRADES WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NOTED OVER A LARGE AREA S OF THE 
HIGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING 
FROM 14N125W TO 07N127W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE 
EAST AND WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL 
RELAXATION OF THE TRADE WINDS. 

GULF OF PANAMA...
A 1011 MB LOW DEVELOPED S OF THE GULF OF PANAMA NEAR 06N78W. 
CONVECTION IS S OF THE LOW CENTER. SEE ABOVE. 20 KT SW FLOW IS 
NOTED. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO 06N81W IN 48 HOURS.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...
TRADEWINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
...RESULTING IN 20-KT WINDS FROM 10N TO 11N E OF 89W. SEAS ARE 
LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WIND AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR 
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
PRESENTLY WINDS AND SEAS ARE LOW IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... 
HOWEVER A SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER N MEXICO AND THE NW GULF 
OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND 
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A 
SURFACE LOW IN SE ARIZONA IS RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 
KT ACROSS THE N GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE GREAT 
BASIN HIGH.

$$
FORMOSA