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Appendix A - NOAA TASK STATEMENT
Appendix A - NOAA TASK STATEMENT Report /Mission: In the next few months, NOAA and the Department of Commerce will need to determine the level of resources needed to operate the modernized National Weather Service (NWS). This report is required in a short time frame to assist NOAA and the Department in making resource allocation decisions for the FY 1998 NWS operating plan. NOAA and the Department of Commerce will need to understand the programmatic impact of the FY 1998 conference allocation for the National Weather Service and determine if additional resources are required to meet the criteria defined in the assumptions. In addition, resource information is needed for the FY 1999 Departmental budget request to Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to ensure that the criteria defined in the assumptions can be supported. Recognizing that this time frame is short, we are requesting that the report contain sufficient analysis to determine the necessary resources, or indicate major areas of uncertainty and provide proposals on how to address those issues, consistent with the criteria defined in the assumptions. General Kelly is requested to provide an analysis and recommendations distinguishing between issues which need to resolved in the short term (e.g., FY 1998) and those which are longer term (e.g., FY 1999 and beyond). In particular, General Kelly should provide an assessment of issues associated with AWIPS functionality and staffing levels (including reductions) and NWS closure plans. He also is requested to analyze the operational regional infrastructure of the NWS as it affects the cost of delivery of services, with specific focus on the NWS plans to accelerate the closure of the Southern Region Headquarters. Approach: General Kelly will receive briefings as well as other requested information from NWS and other relevant parties (see Assumptions section). In addition, it is expected that General Kelly will meet with users of NWS products and services to include government and non­government groups and other interested parties such as state emergency managers, commercial weather service providers, and the National Research Council's NWS Modernization Committee, to discuss parameters which would affect the cost of weather service operations, such as timeliness, accuracy, responsiveness, communication and others. General Kelly should assess the zero­based budget review information which will be provided by the NWS to establish a baseline cost determination of the existing programs. This assessment should consider the costs associated with: the current and projected staffing plan; (and, in particular, whether the FY 1998 President's budget is adequate to support this; and what resources are needed in FY 1999); the current and planned modernized field office operations; the current and planned modernized weather office infrastructure, including the regional headquarters; and recurring requirements such as operations and maintenance, research and development, technology refreshment, service and product improvement, and training needs. Outside Experts: We recommend that General Kelly contact the following people as soon as possible to develop a work plan which would take advantage of their expertise. In parallel, we will contact them to discuss the specific arrangements necessary to provide for their participation in this effort. One possible work plan and personnel assignment could be built upon the following: Good - technology infusion - plans for both phasing and level of resources Dutton - identify a priority list of issues which are important to the academic community McMillion - identify a priority list of concerns with respect to weather services and emergency manager needs; Dorman - review the cost of planned service and product improvements Kaehn - assist in the evaluation of the NWS regional infrastructure, specifically focusing on NWS plans to accelerate the closure of the Southern Region Headquarters; and provide an assessment of issues associated with AWIPS functionality and staffing levels (including reductions)/NWS closure plans NOAA Support: NOAA will provide access to all information that is required to conduct this assessment, including briefing materials, budget and cost information, GAO and IG reports, staffing and modernization plans, and all other relevant documentation. NOAA will ensure that appropriate NOAA staff are made available to General Kelly for his support , including administrative and clerical, budget, technical and program management. Specific NOAA individuals that General Kelly has identified are being contacted to ascertain their availability. NOAA will also arrange access to other appropriate government and non­government officials. We anticipate that briefings to Congressional staff will be necessary and NOAA will make the necessary arrangements for these meetings. Office space in NOAA facilities in Silver Spring has been made available. NOAA will also pay for authorized travel, phones, fax, computer and other required support. NOAA will make appropriate arrangements to acquire additional support from contractors for budget or technical analysis expertise, if required. Assumptions: For purposes of preparing this report, General Kelly should base his analysis and recommendations or options on the following assumptions regarding the baseline for NWS modernization and service levels (detailed briefings will be provided to him on this): FY 1996 current level of services and products, adjusted for permanent changes made as part of the FY 1997 budget shortfall, will continue in FY 1998­1999; NWS modernization plan will be pursued and completed as currently defined and scheduled in he National Implementation Plan; Staffing plan will be implemented as defined in the Human Resources staffing plan, adjusted for actions undertake in FY 1997 as part of the NWS streamlining plan; NWS budget profiles defined in the President's FY 1998 budget request and run­outs, adjusted for Congressional actions; Guidance established to address the FY 1997 budget situation can continue to be supported in FY 1998­1999. The guidance for FY 1997 is: (1) no direct impact on warning programs; (2) no reductions to modernization systems and schedules; and (3) no permanent staffing reductions in weather forecast offices and river forecast centers. Deliverable and Time Frame: A report is request that will contain an assessment of the fiscal resources necessary to operate the modernized weather service, as defined in the National Implementation Plan, focusing on resource requirements for FY 1998 and FY 1999. The report should identify major cost uncertainties associated with the end state of modernization and provide recommendations and/or options on how to proceed with addressing these issues. The report will be due to the Under Secretary and the Secretary of Commerce 60­days from General Kelly's entry-on-duty (EOD) as a limited term SES appointment which will run for 90 days. I. Scope II. Approach III. Methodology IV. Assumptions V. Cost Analysis Determination of the level of resources needed in FY 1998 and FY 1999 to proceed on schedule with weather service modernization and ensure that the current levels of services are supported, to include the cost of the following recurring fiscal requirements:
VI. Specific Issues
VII. Recommendations and/or Options
Appendix B - RECOMMENDED BUDGET for FYs 1998 and 1999 Table 22 summarizes the NOAA Review recommendations. This table is provided in the budget account terms commonly used by NOAA/NWS in order to provide a quick reference for this report. The same information is provided in the official NOAA budget structure on the following pages.
A. - Budget Summary In Traditional NOAA Structure Table 23 reflects the FY 1998 President's Budget in the NOAA budget structure format and compares it to the NOAA Review recommendations.
B. - Summary of Program Increases in the Budget Structure According to NOAA policy officials, the FY 1998 President's Budget only partially restored mandatory personnel pay raises and adjustments for real inflation, and leaves an un-funded residual of $15.65 million. In the FY 1999 OMB Submit, the un-funded residual is $11.76 million. Table 25 and Table 26 reflect the Program Change Increases in the FY 1998 President's Budget and FY 1999 OMB Submit (associated with Local Forecasts and Warnings) and compares them to the NOAA Review recommendations.
C. - NWS FTE Distributed By Funding Sources Several sources provide funding for the FTE counted on NWS staffing rolls. Table 27 and Table 28 provide an overall summary. These tables reflect the FTEs contained in the FY 1998 President's Budget and the FY 1999 OMB Submission and compares them to the NOAA Review recommendations. It also compares each of these categories to the NWS FTE Streamlining Plan Targets for FY 1998 and FY 1999. Table 29 and Table 30 show the distribution, in greater detail, within the NWS organizational structure.
D. - NWS Modernization Program Budget Table 31 summarizes the Modernization Programs by funding account, Table 32 shows the funding totals for each Modernization System.
A. - Summary
basic compensation (i.e., salaries) other compensation (e.g., premium pay and differentials) personnel benefits Based upon preliminary analyses, three major issues were identified: (1) is the practice of costing MARDI and other modernization accounts at step 1 and BASE at step 4 appropriate given the current NWS labor mix (2) are the percentages used in the budget for other compensation reflective of actuals (3) are the percentages used in the budget for benefits reflective of actuals. Recommendations were based upon existing budgeting practice, historical variances between budgeted amounts and actuals, and the current/projected NWS workforce demographics. The analysis revealed that the current NWS labor modeling process very slightly over estimates required labor resources. This is the result of a very small under estimate in basic compensation/salaries (because the NWS staff is on average above step 4), a very small under estimate in other compensation (largely due to actual overtime usage) and an over estimate in the benefits rate (compared to 1992-1997 year to date actuals). Details regarding each of these findings are presented below. B. - Basic Compensation/Salaries The NOAA budget guidance (NOAA Budget Handbook Chapter 5, Appendix H and all other applicable updates by NOAA and DOC) requires NWS budget analysts to cost all program change FTEs (i.e., modernization accounts) at step 1. In addition, the NWS budget analysts cost all other accounts at step 4. We estimated the cost of 4,869 FTEs (the actual number of FTEs in August 1997) using their actual grade and step and compared that to an estimate with all the labor at step 4. Although modernization accounts (e.g., MARDI) are actually costed (in the zero base budget) at step 1, 90% of the FY 1998 FTEs are costed under the step 4 scenario (to simplify our analysis we costed all FTEs at step 4). Our analysis shows that costing all FTEs at step 4 versus their actual step underestimates the basic compensation by 2.4%. An analysis of the 4 largest pay grades, GS11, GS12, GS13 and GS14, (which accounts for 75% of the NWS labor force) shows that the weighted average step for these four grades is 4.86 (see Table 33 - NWS Average "Steps" for the Four Major Grades). If the NOAA/NWS labor model were to use an average step of 5 (instead of 4) the estimate would increase by 2.8% (very close to the 2.4% shortfall). We recommend that the NOAA/NWS labor model use step 5. A better long term solution would be to price labor based upon the precise grade/step of each member of the NWS workforce.
*total FTEs as of 30 August 1997 was 4,869 C. - Other Compensation/Differentials We examined fiscal year 1992 through year to date 1997 actuals for other compensation. Other compensation (or differentials) falls largely into four categories: Overtime Night Pay Sunday Pay Holiday Pay There is also a very small but immaterial amount of Hazard Pay and Foreign Pay in the actuals (there is no budget, however, for Foreign Pay and Hazard Pay in FY 1998 and 1999). The 1992 to 1997 average for other compensation (as a percent of Basic Compensation) is 6.0%. The 1996 actual is 5.9% and the 1997 YTD actual is 5.5%. The budgeted amounts are only 5.2% in FY 1998 and 5.3% in FY 1999 (see Table 34 - Other Compensation as a Percent of Basic Compensation). This is primarily due to the fact that the budgeted Overtime appears significantly lower (in 1998 and 1999) than NWS actuals. We recommend the use of 5.9% for both FY 1998 and FY 1999. It should be noted that NWS applies other compensation/differentials in accordance with NOAA guidance (e.g., 3% for overtime and 10% for night pay) and they apply the NOAA guidance only to those in the workforce to whom a particular differential applies. Therefore, NOAA budget analysts can NOT use the 5.9% in future budget exercises. A separate memo will document our recommended factors for future budget exercises.
D. - Personnel Benefits We examined benefits for fiscal years 1992 through 1997. We found significant increases in the budgeted amounts in FY 1998 and FY 1999 (versus 1992 through 1997 actuals) for three benefits categories: (1) cash awards, (2) FICA and (3) health benefits. We verified that where NOAA or DOC budget guidance exists, the recommended or required percentages were used. For Cash Awards, the NOAA guidance has historically resulted in budgeted amounts which are higher than what NWS actually spends. Therefore, we recommend lowering the percentage slightly (to 1.4%). For FICA, while we appreciate that their is a migration of NWS staff from accounts where FICA is not applied to accounts where FICA is applied the increase (from a historical average of 3% to over 6%) is not consistent with the number of FTEs that will be migrating to the FICA accounts. Given, this situation we recommend setting FICA at 3.5% for both FYs 1998 and 1999. Finally, while health care costs are certainly rising the 1998 increase from a historical average of around 7% to almost 9% (in FY 1998) is not justified. We recommend holding health care benefits at 6.9% for both FY 1998 and FY 1999 (6.9% was, in fact, the actual budget request for FY 1999). Table 35 - Benefits as a Percent of Basic Compensation - summarizes our findings and Table 36 - Recommended Benefits as a Percent of Basic Compensation - shows our recommended benefits percentages for FYs 1998 and 1999.
* NOAA actually requires 1.5% of Basic PLUS Other Compensation. This percentage is of Basic Compensation only. ** included in Retirement. *** MAY not add due to rounding.
E. - Conclusions For our cost analysis we have increased Basic Compensation by 2.4%, increased Other Compensation from budgeted amounts of 5.2% and 5.3% (for FY 1998 and FY 1999) to 5.9% for both years, and lowered Personnel Benefits from 32.4% and 30.8% (for FY 1998 and FY 1999) to 27.0% and 27.1%. The "net" result of these two increases and one decrease is about a 1% overall decrease. That is, given the same number (and grade/step) of FTEs our recommended adjustments will produce a labor cost estimate that is 1% lower than what NWS currently budgets and it will represent a more accurate projection of the individual labor and benefits accounts. We recommend the following: 1. That the NOAA/NWS labor model use step 5 for all pay grades if actual grades and steps (based on the most current NWS labor demographics) can NOT be used. Further, the NWS demographics should be verified annually and the "step assumption" should be adjusted as necessary. 2. Further examination of Cash Awards, Health and FICA accounts be conducted to determine why there are significant differences between the estimates produced using NOAA/DOC budget guidance and the NWS actuals. 3. If recommendation #1 is NOT accepted, the NWS model should be used unchanged. The benefits and other compensation rates can NOT be lowered without increasing the basic compensation (by estimating at step 5 or by using the actual grade and step of the current NWS workforce). Appendix D - CONTACTS Dr. Christopher R. Adams Col.Thomas C. Adang, President
Dr. Richard A. Anthes, Chairman
Dr. David Atlas John Bahnweg Dr. Robert F. Brammer Raymond J. Ban Dr. William Bonner Dr. David Burch Linda Burton-Ramsey Joseph L. Byrnes, CEM Kenneth Campbell Michael Carr Dr. Kenneth Crawford Clyde M. DeHart, Jr. Lawrence M. Denton Dr. Dara Entekhabi Roger R. Getz Dr. George J. Gleghorn Dr. William E. Gordon William S. Gross, PE Dr. Richard H. Hallgren Floyd Hauth Chuck Herring Dr. Charles Hosler, Jr. Bob Huber Eli Jacks David S. Johnson Dr. Robert J. Katt Troy Kemmel Stuart L. Knoop Kevin Lavin Michael S. Leavitt Dr. Peter Leavitt Mr. Courtland S. Lewis Helen Lou Rick McCoy, President David McMillion, Director Tom Millwee Dr. James Moore Dr. Raymond P. Motha Jenanne L. Murphy Barry Lee Myers Joel N. Myers, PhD Joseph Myers, Director Dr. Veronica F. Nieva Peter J. Nuhn W. R. Padgett Dorothy C. Perkins Albert Peterlin Dr. Richard L. Reinhardt Keith Rhodes Bob Rose Joseph T. Schaefer Dr. Jerry Schubel, President
William Sears Dr. Robert J. Serafin Dale Shipley, Deputy Director
Steve Short Ramon I. Sierra, National President
Addison Slayton, Jr. Jeffrey C. Smith Michael R. Smith Dr. Paul L. Smith Clay Stamp, Coordinator Lloyd Stoebner Amy Taylor David A. Thibault John W. Trimmer, CAPT. Roger A. Tucker W. A. "Billy" Wagner,
Jr., Director Joel Williemssen Jeff Wimmer, Co-owner Arthur I. Zygielbaum Appendix E - ACRONYMS ASOS - Automated Surface Observing Systems AWC - Aviation Weather Center AWIPS - Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System CPC - Climate Prediction Center CWSU - Air Route Traffic Control Center Weather Support Unit DCO - Data Collection Office DL - Distance Learning DOC - Department of Commerce EMC - Environmental Modeling Center GOES NEXT - Next Generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite HPC - Hydrometeorological Prediction Center ICWF - Interactive Coded Weather Forecast IFP - Interactive Forecast Preparation LOC - Lines of Code MAR - Modernization and Restructuring MPC - Marine Prediction Center NCEP - National Center for Environmental Prediction NCF - Network Control Facility NCO - NCEP Central Operations NDBC - National Data Buoy Center NESDIS - National Environmental Satellite and Data Information Service NEXRAD - Next Generation Weather Radar NIP - National Implementation Plan NLSC - National Logistics Support Center NOAA - National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration NRC - National Reconditioning Center NWS - National Weather Service NWSTC - National Weather Service Training Center OAA - Office of the Associate Administrator OFCM - Office Federal Coordinator of Meteorology Services OH - Office of Hydrology OM - Office of Meteorology OSD - Office of Systems Development OSO - Office of Systems Operations PB - President's Budget QPF - Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting RD - Regional Director RFC - Regional Forecast Center RSC - Remote Sensing Center SOO - Science and Operations Officer SPC - Storm Prediction Center SRH - Southern Regional Headquarters TPC - Tropical Prediction Center TWC - Tsunami Warning Center WCM - Warning and Coordination Meteorologist WFO - Weather Forecast Office WSO - Weather Service Office ZBB - Zero Based Budget |
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