ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
ALZ000-MSZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/24/08 0358Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0345Z KUSSELSON
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LOCATION...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...
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ATTN WFOS...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...LMRFC...
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EVENT...STEADIEST AND HVYST OVER ALABAMA...STEERING HVY PRECIP TOWARD
MISSISSIPPI...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BIG PICTURE SHOWED THAT IN THE PAST 24HRS
CIRCULATION CENTER OF VORT OR LOW THAT HAD BEEN IN ARKANSAS HAD MIGRATED
AND FUSED INTO FAY'S UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW OVER S MS NEAR THE SW
ALABAMA BORDER.  THIS WOULD ALLOW MORE ROOM FOR STEADIEST AND HVY RAIN
WITH COLD TOPS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA TO MIGRATE OVER TO CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI THE NEXT 12-18HRS.  IN ANY CASE SPIRLING BANDS OF WARM TOP
CLOUDS FROM N FL...GA ALL FEEDING INTO FOCUS COLD TOP AREA CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE STEADIEST AND HVYST RAIN NOW OCCURRING FROM TD FAY.
ENOUGH GPS STATIONS REPORT 2.3"+ PW VALUES...SO HRLY RAIN RATES CAN REACH
2.0...BUT DON'T THINK THAT WILL BE HAPPENING EVERY HR ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA AS MOST INTENSE CELLS AND COLD TOPS MOVING...BUT PERSISTENT
COLD TOP AREA AND TRAINING INDIVIDUAL CELLS CAN EASILY GIVE 1.0"
PER 15-30 MINUTES AND IF FF THREAT DES NOT PAN OUT...CERTAINLY COULD
BE LONGER FLOOD PROBLEMS FROM THESE PERSISTENT HVY RAINS OVERNIGHT.
MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERNS...W WILCOX/MARENGO TO GREENE/SUMTER COUNTY IN
WESTERN ALABAMA TO TALLAPOOSA/MACON/BULLOCK IN EAST PART FROM TRAINING
SPIRLING BANDS/WAVES OF MODERATE TO HVY RAIN.
DIFFLUENCE AND SHORT WAVE FORCING ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE HELPING TO LIFT
TREMENDOUS MOISTURE THAT IS 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.  LOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL
TEMPS (-10C) FROM 00Z SOUNDING AT BIRMINGHAM...SO ANY CLOUD TOPS COOLER
THAN THIS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE HVY RAIN ASPECTS AND COLDEST TOPS AT -68C
REALLY HELPING TO MAKE RAIN GENERATION EASY FOR HIGHEST RAIN RATE THRU
0345Z OVER MARENGO COUNTY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEND SATELLITE ESTIMATE GRAPHIC AND ANALYSIS
GRAPHIC ON WEB SITE AT ADDRESS BELOW...
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3372 9054 3343 8541 3160 8549 3195 8734 3169 8711 3215
9050
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