ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
AZZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/15/08 0110Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 0100Z KUSSELSON
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LOCATION...ARIZONA...
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ATTN WFOS...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
ATTN RFCS...CBRFC...
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EVENT...CONVECTION OFF THE MOUNTAINS THE MOST POTENT...STORM THE FURTHER
SOUTH HAVE MOST POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN AND FF...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOSING
OF SOLAR RADIATION...NOT MUCH CONCERN FOR HVY RAIN CELLS IN THE SE
OUTSIDE OF STRAY SHORT LIVED HVY RAIN CELL.  LONG LASTING STORMS THAT
HAVE COME OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING SOUTHWEST THRU CENTRAL AZ MORE
OF CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR HVY RAIN WITH THOSE THE FURTHER SOUTH
ENTERING MARICOPA...E PINAL COUNTY AND INTERACTING WITH CLUSTERS IN SW
GRAHAM COUNTY.  HERE THE MOISTURE HIGHER AND CAN RESULT IN 1.0" PER 30
MINUTES AND POSSIBLY 1.5" IN SHORT TIME OF 45MINUTES WITH ANY MERGER.
HAVE NOT SEEN A GOOD MERGER SINCE GILA COUNTY STORMS JUST BEFORE 00Z.
SOME BACKBUILDING WITH PINAL TO GILA-MARICOPA COUNTY BORDER STORMS
THAT COULD MERGE WITH ACTIVITY COMING S/SW INTO N MARICOPA...SO THAT
MAY BE A CONCERN IN 2 HRS OVER MARICOPA IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO PLACE.
PWS NOT EXCESSIVELY HIGH...BUT THE RIGHT MERGER COULD RESULT IN A 1.5"
OBSERVATION IN 1 45 MINUTE TIME SPAN FROM THE RIGHT MERGER OF CELLS...
SLOWNESS OF THE STORMS JUST WON'T DO IT AS SFC DEWPOINT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE NOT IDEAL...BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT A LITTLE MORE ENCOURAGING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3539 11340 3394 11038 3148 10933 3145 11186 3253 11144
3354 11349
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