ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/28/07 2329Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 2315Z       CW
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LOCATION...NW IOWA...NEBRASKA...SOUTH DAKOTA...NE COLORADO...
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ATTN WFOS...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...
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EVENT...CONVECTION ACROSS NE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND PUSH
NEWD LIKELY EVOLVING INTO MCS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS A VORT MOVING EWD
ACROSS CO AND A S/WV DIVING SEWD OUT OF E MT/W ND.  THESE TWO UPPER-LVL
FEATURES ARE SEEN APPROACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHERE A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS RESIDES (-5 TO -10 STLT DERIVED LI/S) AND ALREADY CONVECTION
HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST FEW HRS ACROSS W NE/NE CO AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...AND W AND CENTRAL KS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC CIRCULATION
THAT IS NOW WHAT IS LEFT OF DOLLY.
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GROWING CONCERN IS FOR HVY RAIN EVENT TO BREAK OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-NE
NEBRASKA/SE SD AND EVENTUALLY SPILLING INTO SW MN/NW IA THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY CONVECTION ACROSS W NE/NE CO IS LINEARLY ORIENTED SW-NE AND
MOVING RATHER SLOWLY.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONCE THE S/WV GETS CLOSER
TO THIS AREA IT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE UVVS AND ALSO PUSH THE CONVECTION
NEWD INTO N NE/S SD.  LI/S ARE EVEN MORE UNSTABLE ACROSS SE SD (-8 TO -11)
IN ADDITION TO HIGHER LLVL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
AT 23Z SHOWS POOL OF MAX SFC THETA-E VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SD
WITH SFC DEW POINTS AT 72-74F.  WITH THIS IN MIND...BELIEVE DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ACROSS W NE WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS AND EVOLVE INTO MCS WHICH SHOULD THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY NEWD INTO SE
SD/NE NE.  PW VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5-1.6" ACROSS THIS AREA.  STORMS MAY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.5-1.7"/HR.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4454 9909 4284 9612 4014 10165 4043 10465
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