ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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MOZ000-IAZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/28/08 0655Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0645Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...MISSOURI...IOWA...
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ATTN WFOS...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...
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EVENT...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES WITH NW TO SE TRAINING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL IA INTO CNTRL MO
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS AS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER E NE/E KS
IS ISENTROPICALLY TRANSPORTED OVER OUTFLOW REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SATELLITE SIGNATURE OVER THE PAST 30-60 MINUTES
WAS CONVECTIVE MERGER THAT OCCURRED FROM APPROXIMATELY GUTHRIE TO CLARKE
COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IA.  MOST RECENT IMAGERY STILL SUGGESTING VERY
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CORES IN THIS REGION WITH NUMEROUS OVERSHOOTING TOPS
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY, SPECIFICALLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM MADISON TO WAYNE
COUNTY.  ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES ALONG THIS AXIS ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE
BETWEEN 1.0-2.0"/HR.  THESE TYPES OF RAINFALL RATES HAVE ALSO BEEN
CONFIRMED FURTHER UPSTREAM BY RECENT OBSERVATIONS OUT OF IRK.  HAVE NOTED
THAT THERE HAS BEEN A SW SHIFT TO MOST ACTIVE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE LAST
HOUR AS OUTFLOW TRIES TO SURGE TO THE SW.  THIS SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS THE
HEAVIEST RAINS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ALONG AN AXIS FROM GUTHRIE COUNTY
SE TO MACON COUNTY.  BELIEVE WIDESPREAD 1-2" TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THIS AXIS OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 3" POSSIBLE.
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A QUICK PEAK AT THE 0645Z IR IMAGE SHOWS A STATIONARY OVERSHOOTING TOP
OVER NE MADISON COUNTY JUST N OF PATTERSON.  ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES
WITH THIS CELL HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 2.0"/HR.
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SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING DEEPENING CB FIELD NEAR SUX.  HAVE NOTICED
THAT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP THERE OVER
THE LAST 1-2 HOURS.  BELIEVE THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THERE BUT
WITH VEERING LLJ THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVY RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOCUS FURTHER SE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4223 9493 4202 9420 4126 9297 4051 9208 3963 9135 3852
9116 3784 9122 3758 9211 3804 9257 3907 9279 4031 9422
4142 9512 4198 9547
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