ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/28/08 0450Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0445Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...ILLINOIS...MISSOURI...IOWA...
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ATTN WFOS...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...
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EVENT...TRAINING CONVECTION FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS NOW MOVING
THROUGH CNTRL IL AND THE STL METRO AREA HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE A RATHER
WELL DEFINED SURFACE COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL
IA INTO CNTRL MO.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION OVER THE LAST 1-2 HRS AND THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN TRAINING SSE
AND PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA.  BELIEVE THAT
SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS THIS SORT OF SCENARIO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
THAT HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE 06-07Z TIME FRAME.
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0Z UA ANALYSIS ALONG WITH RECENT GOES SOUNDER DATA ALL POINTING TOWARDS
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  UA ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING A MODESTLY
WELL DEFINED THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA AS WELL AS
UPSTREAM 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS.  ABOVE FACTORS ALONG WITH RECENT GOES
SOUNDER DATA SHOWING INSTABILITY RESERVOIR OVER E NE (AS LOW AS -10
SURFACE BASED LI'S) BEING TRANSPORTED INTO BACK END OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
BY 20-30 KT SW 85H WIND FLOW, SHOULD FAVOR A REGENERATING CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL IA WITH DOWNSTREAM TRAINING INTO CNTRL MO.
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LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
COOL AND MERGE FROM ROUGHLY AMW TO W OF OTM.  MANUAL SATELLITE ESTIMATED
RAINFALL RATES ALONG THIS LINE RUNNING BETWEEN 1.0-2.0"/HR AND BELIEVE
THESE TYPES OF RATES WILL CONTINUE AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
AND MERGE.  FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, ANOTHER PARTICULARLY WELL DEFINED
CELL WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE COU AREA.  HAVE NOTED A DEVELOPING
OVERSHOOTING TOP WITH THIS CELL ON THE MOST RECENT IMAGERY (0432-0445Z)
AND BASED ON PAST OBSERVATIONS OUT OF IRK AND THE APPARENT STRENGTHENING
OF CELL, WOULD EXPECT A BURST OF 2.0"/HR RAINFALL RATES TO APPROACH THE
COU AREA IN THE NEXT 30-45 MINUTES.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4251 9437 4246 9334 4172 9213 3895 9049 3788 9062 3764
9134 3803 9244 3954 9331 4168 9439
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